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June Discobs 2024


George BM
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4 hours ago, CAPE said:

Yeah we gonna cook pretty good next week. With the flow around that High, dewpoints will be well into the 60s with a couple days in the low 70s maybe.

gfs-ens_mslpaMean_us_7.png

I'm hyped.  Hopefully, that means less clouds and breeze.  I want it to feel like summer, not fall.

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1 hour ago, kgottwald said:

Unseasonably cold and windy in Tysons Corner. And clouding over again. Two days in a row with sunny afternoons predicted but not materializing.

 

4 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

Yeah I was thinking the same thing.  Yesterday and today looked great on paper but it's cloudy, breezy and chilly.  It's going to make next week's big heat harder to get used to!

I'm at 74/75 and in and out of sun.  Y'all are crazy, this is perfect!

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Unseasonably cold and windy in Tysons Corner. And clouding over again. Two days in a row with sunny afternoons predicted but not materializing.

Well I wouldn’t classify it as cold lol, but I’ve started to hit pause on sunny forecasts when there’s a lp to the north in a nw flow. There’s been so many busted sunshine forecasts in those setups I can’t even keep track anymore. Numerous times LWX has had to adjust their forecast to partly sunny/mostly cloudy. It seems the best way to beat that is temps above 80 and increased humidity through the layers…that tends to get us away from those low and mid level stratus cloud decks.
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Time to get real toasty 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
In the wake of the cold frontal passage, a ridge of high
pressure settle over the Great Lakes to northeastern U.S. this
weekend. This allows for a dry forecast along with less humidity
than previous days. Each day should bring mostly sunny skies
with high temperatures that increase through the weekend. Sunday
will certainly be the warmer day of the two as surface winds
shift back to southerly. This eventually sets the stages for a
hot work week ahead.

A building subtropical ridge aloft gradually parks over the
eastern U.S. during the early to middle portions of the week.
Depending on the global ensemble, some show mid-level heights
around 2 standard deviations above average. This sprawling
594-dm ridge will really begin to crank up the heat with
widespread mid to upper 90s expected. Some of the more upper
echilon solutions carry temperatures to just over 100 degrees.
Given dew points ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s, heat
indices should easily reach and exceed the century mark most
afternoons. If this all holds, heat-related products will
likely be necessary ahead of this expected heat wave.

While not explicitly shown in the forecast package, there
should be some instability forced convection. However, this will
be largely dependent on the position of the upper ridge as well
as any capping that becomes evident in thermodynamic profiles.

This hot and steamy air mass could persist through the entire
work week if the ensemble means are taken at face value. The
Climate Prediction Center agrees with this notion with a
moderate risk for excessive heat in the June 19-21 period.
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1 hour ago, yoda said:

Time to get real toasty 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
In the wake of the cold frontal passage, a ridge of high
pressure settle over the Great Lakes to northeastern U.S. this
weekend. This allows for a dry forecast along with less humidity
than previous days. Each day should bring mostly sunny skies
with high temperatures that increase through the weekend. Sunday
will certainly be the warmer day of the two as surface winds
shift back to southerly. This eventually sets the stages for a
hot work week ahead.

A building subtropical ridge aloft gradually parks over the
eastern U.S. during the early to middle portions of the week.
Depending on the global ensemble, some show mid-level heights
around 2 standard deviations above average. This sprawling
594-dm ridge will really begin to crank up the heat with
widespread mid to upper 90s expected. Some of the more upper
echilon solutions carry temperatures to just over 100 degrees.
Given dew points ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s, heat
indices should easily reach and exceed the century mark most
afternoons. If this all holds, heat-related products will
likely be necessary ahead of this expected heat wave.

While not explicitly shown in the forecast package, there
should be some instability forced convection. However, this will
be largely dependent on the position of the upper ridge as well
as any capping that becomes evident in thermodynamic profiles.

This hot and steamy air mass could persist through the entire
work week if the ensemble means are taken at face value. The
Climate Prediction Center agrees with this notion with a
moderate risk for excessive heat in the June 19-21 period.

Yeah it looks like we're gonna pay for this nice stretch next week. 

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Had my first ankle roll in a while yesterday playing basketball.  It's usually a 2-4 week situation...in the meantime, I want storms to track.  Bring on the heat and humidity...it's go time.

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6 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Low of 52.5. Mid September before it gets this cool again?

Exactly what I was thinking. Got down to 43.3 here this morning - thought a few days ago I might be able to kiss the 30s for a final time before the fall, but still spectacular. Now it's time to rev things up.

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1 hour ago, 87storms said:

Had my first ankle roll in a while yesterday playing basketball.  It's usually a 2-4 week situation...in the meantime, I want storms to track.  Bring on the heat and humidity...it's go time.

Step on someone's foot?  That sucks.  Stopped playing before Covid, mostly because the school gyms closed.  Now I just play indoor soccer and Referee hoops up your way. 

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