WeatherShak Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 Not impressed with this heat wave so far. It's not even that hot in the city. Funny I came to say the same thing. Just did a lunch time walk and was pleasantly surprised by how comfortable it was outside. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 4 minutes ago, WeatherShak said: Funny I came to say the same thing. Just did a lunch time walk and was pleasantly surprised by how comfortable it was outside. It is dry out, I'll give it that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 It is dry out, I'll give it that. Well it’s the onshore flow from the east/southeast that’s making it seem nice. Once that changes, you’re gonna cook in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 45 minutes ago, IronTy said: Not impressed with this heat wave so far. It's not even that hot in the city. The heat wave was always going to be focused north of us during the middle of the week, and then collapse down onto us for the weekend. 90/65 is hot, but not that bad. When we go to 97/98 this weekend it'll be more noticeable. But the sudden-onset dry conditions have certainly helped us out in terms of feels-like weather. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 12 minutes ago, WeatherShak said: Well it’s the onshore flow from the east/southeast that’s making it seem nice. Once that changes, you’re gonna cook in the city. I'm going back to the Bay house tomorrow. Just in time for the real heat. Hopefully the AC in my ancient Subaru holds up for the drive home. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 Ok so I mentioned heat hype on Sunday and I’m at day 4 of non hottest in decades ranging 89-92 for highs. We are stuck with DCA both good and bad and with no high in TN valley to support the blistering heat with westerly component DCA stays dead southerly to maybe SSW. 99 or 100 or even 97 won’t happen unless the winds swing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 On 6/17/2024 at 3:09 PM, WEATHER53 said: Where will it be hottest in decades? Not here as winds never get a solid westerly component with No high in TN valley and south flow dominant from Bermuda high Saw 99 late week yesterday, now 96 max. Sensing heat hype. Let’s see if winds get west of like 190-200 at DCA. If not 97-100 won’t happen and it will be normal heat like 95 tops at DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 log another one - 91F at least in DC we've also stayed above 70 for the past few nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 I am guessing we could see EHW's maybe in the metros for Sunday? Zones have HX near 110 Zone Forecast Product National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 133 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 DCZ001-202100- District of Columbia- Including the city of Washington 133 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 .THIS AFTERNOON...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 90s. South winds around 5 mph. .TONIGHT...Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly clear. Lows around 70. South winds around 5 mph. .FRIDAY...Sunny, hot with highs in the mid 90s. South winds around 5 mph. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 70s. South winds around 5 mph. .SATURDAY...Sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce gusty winds in the afternoon. Hot with highs in the upper 90s. Southwest winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 70s. .SUNDAY...Mostly sunny with a chance of showers. Hot with highs around 100. Chance of rain 30 percent. Heat index values up to 110. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 60 percent. .MONDAY...Mostly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 90s. Chance of rain 40 percent. .MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 70s. .TUESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 90s. .TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 70s. .WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Hot with highs in the upper 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 Saturday night will be warmer still, with overnight lows in the mid-upper 70s to the east of the Blue Ridge, with lower 80s even possible in DC and Baltimore. This level of heat overnight, when the daytime temperatures are near 100, is especially dangerous because there will be very little relief. Current forecast would only have heat indices below 90 between midnight and 8 AM Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The conclusion of this weekend will mark a temporary end to the lengthy period of above average temperatures. On Sunday, 850-mb temperatures rise to around 21-23C which dry adiabatically mixed to the surface would support some century degree readings. Consequently, the forecast does call for some spots reaching 100 degrees. This is accompanied increasing humidity levels as dew points rise into the upper 60s to low 70s. The resultant heat indices range from 100 to 107 degrees across the forecast area. If this were to be maintained, Heat Advisories may be needed for much of the region. An additional threat will be some strong to severe thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon to evening hours. After over a week of continued heating of the surface, instability levels should be maximized as mixed-layer CAPE values reach 2,500 to 3,000 J/kg. The guidance vary in convective coverage which suggests there could be some capping issues. After around 9 to 10 days without a cold frontal passage, the guidance does bring a boundary through during the second half of Monday. This would bring an additional threat for some severe convection, especially for those east of the Blue Ridge Mountains. The added clouds and thunderstorm activity does carry Monday`s high temperatures back down into the upper 80s to mid 90s. Through Tuesday, this boundary eventually settles off to the south across the coastal Carolinas. Another round of hot temperatures ensue toward mid-week as highs rise into the mid/upper 90s again. Heat indices begin to approach advisory levels again. Another cold front races across the local area by Thursday which helps usher temperatures down. This would again come with another risk of severe thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 Not sure if anyone is traveling by train along the NE corridor, but train service is suspended between New Haven and Philly due to power outages around NYC (along the tracks). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 We need to invest in some more heat-resilient infra lol. WMATA has also slowed down trains above ground to a max of 35mph due to rail temps of more than 130F. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 14 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: We need to invest in some more heat-resilient infra lol. WMATA has also slowed down trains above ground to a max of 35mph due to rail temps of more than 130F. Power yes, but the rail issue isn't unique to metro. That's just a product of steel's inherent properties. We would need some wonder material replacement to fix that issue. Rails are installed under tension but with enough heat that can switch to compression as the steel expands resulting in bending/buckling. Engineers take that stuff into account and it all might still be "within spec" but it still deserves respect in terms of train speed as you get to the edge of that allowable range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted June 20 Author Share Posted June 20 4:50pm EDT on June 20, 2024. With the sun shining directly above a point in the Pacific Ocean between Hawaii and Mexico, this point has reached the farthest distance north of the equator that it will get this year. It's on its way back south in latitude now. Meaning shortening days in the northern hemisphere from here on out until the winter solstice. Why did I type all of this unsolicited information that everyone was already aware of out?... Anyways... ... Currently it's 89/64 at IAD. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted June 20 Author Share Posted June 20 URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 459 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 DCZ001-MDZ004>006-008-011-013-014-016-503>508-VAZ037>040-050-051- 053>057-501-502-505-506-526-527-210500- /O.NEW.KLWX.EH.A.0003.240622T1600Z-240623T0000Z/ District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- King George-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Including the cities of Charlottesville, Falls Church, Baltimore, Glen Burnie, Odenton, Sterling, Dale City, Jarrettsville, Ellicott City, Turnbull, Clinton, College Park, Gaithersburg, Severn, Damascus, Lisbon, Fredericksburg, Eldersburg, Dahlgren, Ballenger Creek, Herndon, Madison, Bowie, Camp Springs, Annapolis, St. Charles, Falmouth, Ashburn, Stanardsville, Washington, Alexandria, Frederick, Haymarket, Chantilly, Severna Park, Suitland-Silver Hill, Columbia, Gordonsville, Rockville, Arnold, Laurel, Bethesda, Arlington, Purcellville, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Silver Spring, Leesburg, Lake Ridge, Warrenton, Culpeper, Greenbelt, Westminster, Franconia, Aberdeen, Orange, Waldorf, Germantown, Montclair, South Gate, Elkton, Manassas, Reston, McLean, Woodbridge, Annandale, and Centreville 459 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Dangerously hot conditions with heat index values up to 110 possible. * WHERE...Portions of DC, central, north central, northeast, northern, and southern Maryland, and central, northern, and northwest Virginia. * WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening. * IMPACTS...Heat related illnesses increase significantly during extreme heat and high humidity events. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Oppressive heat and humidity will overspread the area Saturday and last into Sunday. Little relief from the heat is expected Saturday night with low temperatures in upper 70s to near 80 for most. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives, neighbors, pets, and livestock. Do not leave young children and pets in unattended vehicles. Car interiors will reach lethal temperatures in a matter of minutes. && $$ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 1 hour ago, TSG said: Power yes, but the rail issue isn't unique to metro. That's just a product of steel's inherent properties. We would need some wonder material replacement to fix that issue. Rails are installed under tension but with enough heat that can switch to compression as the steel expands resulting in bending/buckling. Engineers take that stuff into account and it all might still be "within spec" but it still deserves respect in terms of train speed as you get to the edge of that allowable range. It's taken decades to invest in flood resilient infrastructure. Our society is so terribly backwards we won't have a semblance of heat resiliency until our generation is in a nursing home. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 Idk, seems to have gotten more oppressive in the past couple hours. Heat dome so strong my ears are popping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 93 for the high, a late peaker at 5 pm. Was pretty hot then, when I took my daughter to the pool again. Toasty out there. Gonna get worse tomorrow through Sunday, plus maybe Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 A surprising 92.5 today imby/Columbia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 A pleasant evening watching the fireflies, who enjoy this heat apparently, in my backyard in silver spring. The humidity is totally fine. About 80 degrees at 9pm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 4 hours ago, George BM said: 4:50pm EDT on June 20, 2024. With the sun shining directly above a point in the Pacific Ocean between Hawaii and Mexico, this point has reached the farthest distance north of the equator that it will get this year. It's on its way back south in latitude now. Meaning shortening days in the northern hemisphere from here on out until the winter solstice. Why did I type all of this unsolicited information that everyone was already aware of out?... Anyways... ... Currently it's 89/64 at IAD. I can almost hear the bells of the Sistine Chapel, it's only a matter of time. I can already see the back end of this heat wave, summer's basically over. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 90/67 in Great Falls today. 76 at 10:45pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 76/49 getting sticky...humidity up 6 ticks since 9:30pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 00z GFS says DCA reaches 100 on Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 850 temps appear a tick warmer regionwide on the 00z GFS and Canadian. At 23c for IAD and DCA, with a SW wind, that would support a legit run at 100 degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 GFS, Euro, HRDPS, and HRRR all support 100 around DC on Saturday, with the NAM being a significantly outlier. The ICON joins the other globals for Sunday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 Just now, MN Transplant said: GFS, Euro, HRDPS, and HRRR all support 100 around DC on Saturday, with the NAM being a significantly outlier. The ICON joins the other globals for Sunday. Yea it looks more likely now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yea it looks more likely now. Interesting test of the AI models. ECMWF-AIFS and the GFS GraphCast both seem to top out in the 96 range per the maps on Pivotal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 1 hour ago, MN Transplant said: Interesting test of the AI models. ECMWF-AIFS and the GFS GraphCast both seem to top out in the 96 range per the maps on Pivotal. We can't get AI to answer a question right on a car dealership website. I won't trust numerical model guidance that's AI-based for a long time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 31 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: We can't get AI to answer a question right on a car dealership website. I won't trust numerical model guidance that's AI-based for a long time. Yeah, I remain skeptical. Even if it is doing well with verification at 500mb, the actual weather matters more. NAM's 850s top out at 20-21C. GFS is around 22C. Euro is 22-23C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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