George BM Posted June 1 Share Posted June 1 Forecast Discussion Tuesday, August 13, 2024 11:58AM EDT A dangerous day of tornadoes is already underway. Make sure you know where your safe place is in your home (basement or interior room in the lower floor of a house or apartment). Arc of heavy rain and embedded supercells, some of which are tornadic, continues to lift north through the region and into northern/central MD with the warm front feature that has developed to the ENE of Joyce’s surface low center. With a potent shortwave trough swinging in and phasing with Joyce’s low pressure center, a mid-level dryslot has wrapped around the surface low to the east across Virginia and getting into Maryland along and south of the warm front. This is what’s allowing for some sunshine to continue to overspread the region. Dewpoints have risen into the upper 70s to around 80F south of the front and with the added sunshine temps will rise into the mid/upper 80s this afternoon. This combined with a modest cooling of mid-level temps associated with the approaching shortwave will allow for unusually large CAPE for a remnant tropical system (MLCAPE of around 2500 J/kg or so). The shortwave is also deepening the surface low so, as a result SE surface winds will strengthen across the region with 25-35 kt gusts commonplace. Hodographs will also be very large and curved with a strong 60+kt LLJ overhead resulting in effective SRH easily in excess of 400m2/s2. The sunshine combined with the ample low-level moisture will allow for large 0-3km CAPE of 250-300+ J/kg. All of this combining with 45-55kt effective bulk shear to make conditions highly favorable for a potentially significant tornado outbreak across the region. Currently some supercells which have already caused a number of confirmed tornadoes continue to move NNE into northern and central MD. To the southwest across central and southern VA along and east of the mountains arcs of low-topped supercells, some of which have ongoing tornadoes, continue to mature and strengthen with the increasing instability. As the afternoon progresses bands of supercells will move quickly through the area from SW to NE. These supercells will likely produce several strong to intense tornadoes, some long-track. The Storm Prediction Center is considering an upgrade to a HIGH risk to account for the tornado threat. Due to the slight cooling and drying of the mid-levels, these storms could also produce severe hail as large as 1 to 1.5 inches in diameter. Even if there is no tornado with a particular storm, the 2.25”+ Pwats and large CAPE combining with strong low-level flow could aid in wet downbursts/microbursts bringing severe surface wind gusts. Storms will move to the northeast and exit the area by mid evening as Joyce’s center moves across the region. By the late evening hours the cold front associated with the strong shortwave trough will move through from west to east bringing a 3 to 6 hour window of northwesterly winds gusting 40 to 50mph. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the region to account for this. Temperatures and humidity will fall sharply with this front. Winds will start to weaken towards dawn with temps bottoming out in the 50s in the Greater Metro regions with upper 40s in the far northwestern suburbs. The bottom-line is that this is the beginning of one of the most dangerous tornado outbreaks to impact this area. Please be weather aware and ready to get to your safe places the moment a tornado warning is issued. Wearing a helmet and closed-toed shoes while in your safe place is essential as well to protect from flying debris during a tornado and debris in the aftermath of a tornado. Stay tuned to the NWS for the latest updates available during this event. Forecaster Wannabe: George BM 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 3 Share Posted June 3 I'm in the market for a small window AC unit for our bedroom. It's on the SW side of the house and never cools down during the summer. We don't want to run the AC on full tilt, but need the room cool. The only problem is that we have a low profile window that only opens 10" and is too small for most window units. We got portable air conditioners but they're loud, bulky, and never last more than 2 years. Does anyone possible have an answer to this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted June 3 Share Posted June 3 Good write-up on AI/weather: https://arstechnica.com/ai/2024/06/as-a-potentially-historic-hurricane-season-looms-can-ai-forecast-models-help/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted June 3 Share Posted June 3 Was driving home yesterday on 29 then ffx cty pkwy then 66 west in Fairfax....the line painter for the streets must have left the spray button on there was a solid white line for miles in the middle of the right lane on 66 west lol 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted June 3 Share Posted June 3 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted June 4 Share Posted June 4 On 6/2/2024 at 8:51 PM, Eskimo Joe said: I'm in the market for a small window AC unit for our bedroom. It's on the SW side of the house and never cools down during the summer. We don't want to run the AC on full tilt, but need the room cool. The only problem is that we have a low profile window that only opens 10" and is too small for most window units. We got portable air conditioners but they're loud, bulky, and never last more than 2 years. Does anyone possible have an answer to this? Long term solution is to add insulation / figure out why that room is so warm. Do you have central AC now? If so, there might be something wrong with the duct supplying that room. Loose fitting, hole in supply pipe, etc. Or it could be an undersized supply. If its undersized your best bet is add insulation. Is there an attic above? Unfortunately I have found very few HVAC contractors that really know how to design/balance a system. The one I used when I built my "better than energystar" house is out of Annapolis and you are probably out of their service range. Short term your best bet is the portable AC units with the two tubes that go into the window opening. If you want to save some $ try FB marketplace (now is probably not the time, fall/winter is best to find deals). I have no answer to the breaking within 2 years other than small appliances are a crap shoot these days. Ive had some break quick and others last. Last option would be to install a dedicated mini split unit for that room. It will be a big upfront cost but should last 10+ years and are very quiet. Again, I would think the insulation / duct troubleshooting would be cheapest/best. MRCOOL DIY 12,000 BTU 1-Ton 1-Zone 22 SEER Ductless Mini-Split AC and Heat Pump with 12K & 25ft Line DIY-12-HP-115C25 - The Home Depot BTW those used to be like $500 before covid.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted June 4 Share Posted June 4 On 6/2/2024 at 8:51 PM, Eskimo Joe said: I'm in the market for a small window AC unit for our bedroom. It's on the SW side of the house and never cools down during the summer. We don't want to run the AC on full tilt, but need the room cool. The only problem is that we have a low profile window that only opens 10" and is too small for most window units. We got portable air conditioners but they're loud, bulky, and never last more than 2 years. Does anyone possible have an answer to this? How exposed is that corner of the house to direct sun in the afternoon? It's not an option for everyone, but one often overlooked way to lower energy bills or fixing situations like this is using vegetation to provide shade for the structure. Trees for mid-day sun, shrubs and bushes if you want to block early/late day rays. We've kind of forgotten as a society this used to be the norm and can still be useful. "old farmhouse style" or w/e you want to call it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted June 4 Share Posted June 4 1 hour ago, TSG said: How exposed is that corner of the house to direct sun in the afternoon? It's not an option for everyone, but one often overlooked way to lower energy bills or fixing situations like this is using vegetation to provide shade for the structure. Trees for mid-day sun, shrubs and bushes if you want to block early/late day rays. We've kind of forgotten as a society this used to be the norm and can still be useful. "old farmhouse style" or w/e you want to call it Definitely good advice. We unfortunately had to cut down some big oaks because they died and now our sunroom is really a SUN room in the afternoon. To the point we are spec'ing out shade material. We have re-planted some trees but I will probably be dead before they get big enough to help. Hopefully they work for the next people that own this house haha. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted June 4 Share Posted June 4 6 minutes ago, mdhokie said: Definitely good advice. We unfortunately had to cut down some big oaks because they died and now our sunroom is really a SUN room in the afternoon. To the point we are spec'ing out shade material. We have re-planted some trees but I will probably be dead before they get big enough to help. Hopefully they work for the next people that own this house haha. Love to hear it. A lot of the canopy around the Wash/Balt region is "aging out" as these 50s/60s/70s builds see their original plantings die off or need removal for other reasons. I've watched my parent's neighborhood become way sunnier in the last 10 years than it was when I was a kid as a lot of old oaks have come down. “A society grows great when old men plant trees whose shade they know they shall never sit in.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted June 4 Share Posted June 4 Just a friendly heads up for the NWS. You guys might want to issue an updated heat product for the EWX region here in TX. It's 97/79. It feels like 116 degrees. I know. I am out spreading mulch in this. Yeah, I need my head examined lol. Edit: It fell to 94. Now it feels like a cool 112. Gonnabe a hot day just the same. Soon as I cool off, gotta go right back out and spread more mulch. I am so tired of mom's rose bush flowerbeds. Damn thorns got me so many times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted June 4 Share Posted June 4 On 5/31/2024 at 9:15 PM, George BM said: Forecast Discussion Tuesday, August 13, 2024 11:58AM EDT A dangerous day of tornadoes is already underway. Make sure you know where your safe place is in your home (basement or interior room in the lower floor of a house or apartment). Arc of heavy rain and embedded supercells, some of which are tornadic, continues to lift north through the region and into northern/central MD with the warm front feature that has developed to the ENE of Joyce’s surface low center. With a potent shortwave trough swinging in and phasing with Joyce’s low pressure center, a mid-level dryslot has wrapped around the surface low to the east across Virginia and getting into Maryland along and south of the warm front. This is what’s allowing for some sunshine to continue to overspread the region. Dewpoints have risen into the upper 70s to around 80F south of the front and with the added sunshine temps will rise into the mid/upper 80s this afternoon. This combined with a modest cooling of mid-level temps associated with the approaching shortwave will allow for unusually large CAPE for a remnant tropical system (MLCAPE of around 2500 J/kg or so). The shortwave is also deepening the surface low so, as a result SE surface winds will strengthen across the region with 25-35 kt gusts commonplace. Hodographs will also be very large and curved with a strong 60+kt LLJ overhead resulting in effective SRH easily in excess of 400m2/s2. The sunshine combined with the ample low-level moisture will allow for large 0-3km CAPE of 250-300+ J/kg. All of this combining with 45-55kt effective bulk shear to make conditions highly favorable for a potentially significant tornado outbreak across the region. Currently some supercells which have already caused a number of confirmed tornadoes continue to move NNE into northern and central MD. To the southwest across central and southern VA along and east of the mountains arcs of low-topped supercells, some of which have ongoing tornadoes, continue to mature and strengthen with the increasing instability. As the afternoon progresses bands of supercells will move quickly through the area from SW to NE. These supercells will likely produce several strong to intense tornadoes, some long-track. The Storm Prediction Center is considering an upgrade to a HIGH risk to account for the tornado threat. Due to the slight cooling and drying of the mid-levels, these storms could also produce severe hail as large as 1 to 1.5 inches in diameter. Even if there is no tornado with a particular storm, the 2.25”+ Pwats and large CAPE combining with strong low-level flow could aid in wet downbursts/microbursts bringing severe surface wind gusts. Storms will move to the northeast and exit the area by mid evening as Joyce’s center moves across the region. By the late evening hours the cold front associated with the strong shortwave trough will move through from west to east bringing a 3 to 6 hour window of northwesterly winds gusting 40 to 50mph. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the region to account for this. Temperatures and humidity will fall sharply with this front. Winds will start to weaken towards dawn with temps bottoming out in the 50s in the Greater Metro regions with upper 40s in the far northwestern suburbs. The bottom-line is that this is the beginning of one of the most dangerous tornado outbreaks to impact this area. Please be weather aware and ready to get to your safe places the moment a tornado warning is issued. Wearing a helmet and closed-toed shoes while in your safe place is essential as well to protect from flying debris during a tornado and debris in the aftermath of a tornado. Stay tuned to the NWS for the latest updates available during this event. Forecaster Wannabe: George BM That was good. You'd think this was a meteorological AFD for Oklahoma in spring. George BM you need to go to weather school. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted June 4 Share Posted June 4 Finally broke down and put the AC on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted June 4 Share Posted June 4 19 minutes ago, Interstate said: Finally broke down and put the AC on. Welcome to my March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted June 4 Share Posted June 4 1 hour ago, Interstate said: Finally broke down and put the AC on. LOLLLL. I have had it on for 4 months. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted June 4 Share Posted June 4 Update, 100 degrees, 78 dewpoint, feels like 118. This is very hot for early June down here. We topped out at 101 degrees, with 79 dewpoints. That's about a 118 to 120 heat index. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted June 5 Share Posted June 5 Breaking news: We have 95 degrees with an 80 degree dewpoint which feels like 115. This is what happened last spring, but this year we are getting it 2 to 3 weeks earlier. We indeed have a much warmer base state. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted June 5 Share Posted June 5 5 hours ago, Interstate said: Finally broke down and put the AC on. Still clinging to life here so far, but was just thinking about this. Will come down to moisture at our little micro-climate. If DP sneaks up much in the next few days the indoor air will just get heavier no matter what the temp is. Mostly pleasant today. Morning low 63f. Current 74/68 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 5 Share Posted June 5 College of Dupage radar stopped updating and I feel blind. Every other web based radar is so awful. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toolsheds Posted June 5 Share Posted June 5 54 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: College of Dupage radar stopped updating and I feel blind. Every other web based radar is so awful. noticed that too. I feel like our clients who try and trade stocks on 15 minute delayed data :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted June 5 Author Share Posted June 5 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: College of Dupage radar stopped updating and I feel blind. Every other web based radar is so awful. The best web-based radar by far, that I know, of for sure. Hopefully it's back up soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 21 hours ago, WxUSAF said: College of Dupage radar stopped updating and I feel blind. Every other web based radar is so awful. What is the web address please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 4 minutes ago, Interstate said: What is the web address please weather.cod.edu/satrad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 DFH WWS + Sativa for Friday HH. I'm not going anywhere. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 10 Share Posted June 10 Haven't been around for a while after I switched projects in Jan-Feb and had to get up to speed. Weird to be back. Hosting out first swim meet tonight. Summer is truly here! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted June 10 Share Posted June 10 1 hour ago, mattie g said: Haven't been around for a while after I switched projects in Jan-Feb and had to get up to speed. Weird to be back. Hosting out first swim meet tonight. Summer is truly here! First B meet for us too . . . fortunately at home. Weather on Saturday was spectacular for time trials. Hoping for a repeat this evening! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 6 hours ago, mattie g said: Haven't been around for a while after I switched projects in Jan-Feb and had to get up to speed. Weird to be back. Hosting out first swim meet tonight. Summer is truly here! I wondered why this place was so much more enjoyable. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 13 hours ago, Kay said: Nice! You've had a string of great sky shots. TY...you are way too kind. If I have had that luck...it's because my trusty Pixel 8 Pro has been within arm's length. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 South Florida is getting George BM'ed really bad by ridiculous rains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 This is a very bad situation in south Florida. Those folks need help from outside the catastrophic flood zone. Hopefully drier air can filter in there and allow the waters to recede soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 How do some of you live here??? 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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