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Has the NINA Peaked?


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BOM's 3.4 is at a new low

20100719,20100725,-0.97

20100726,20100801,-1.18

20100802,20100808,-0.99

20100809,20100815,-0.91

20100816,20100822,-1.21

20100823,20100829,-1.40

20100830,20100905,-1.21

20100906,20100912,-1.27

20100913,20100919,-1.32

20100920,20100926,-1.39

20100927,20101003,-1.48

20101004,20101010,-1.53

20101011,20101017,-1.37

20101018,20101024,-1.41

20101025,20101031,-1.40

20101101,20101107,-1.33

20101108,20101114,-1.23

20101115,20101121,-1.35

20101122,20101128,-1.29

20101129,20101205,-1.38

20101206,20101212,-1.43

20101213,20101219,-1.29

20101220,20101226,-1.44

20101227,20110102,-1.39

20110103,20110109,-1.45

20110110,20110116,-1.66

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according to those numbers here is a list of the strongest la nina winters...

1916-17...-22

1892-93...-15

1942-43...-15

1973-74...-15

1909-10...-14

1970-71...-14

1975-76...-14

1949-50...-13

1955-56...-13

1988-89...-13

1999-00...-13

2010-11...-13? estimated

1873-74...-12

2007-08...-12

1875-76...-11

1945-46...-11

1872-73...-10

1908-09...-10

1967-68...-10

This explains some of the analogs being used (in bold)-- I noticed some of these in Don's list also. The 1870s featured some strong la nina winters and yet they were mostly cold and snowy.

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I see this Niña reloading.

I was on board with this until a few weeks ago. The MJO moving to Phase 7/8/1 and forecasted to head back that direction in February indicates to me that the probability of a multi-year Nina has gone down. I'm not good enough to tell you by how much, but the chances of going to neutral or Nino by summer are a lot higher than they were on New Year's Day

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I was on board with this until a few weeks ago. The MJO moving to Phase 7/8/1 and forecasted to head back that direction in February indicates to me that the probability of a multi-year Nina has gone down. I'm not good enough to tell you by how much, but the chances of going to neutral or Nino by summer are a lot higher than they were on New Year's Day

Aren't Niñas typically multi-year events?

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Aren't Niñas typically multi-year events?

I still think we might get a multi-year cold event, but probably it will weak some this spring while maintaining or strengthening slightly in the summer/autumn.

BTW, the SOI has gone up again...it's just off the charts (1917 is the only other comparable year in this respect)

soi_110w_80.gif

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1917 is a great analog for the strength of the la nina and the neg nao. BTW the following winter was also a la nina (1917-18) and still very snowy and cold (the only back to back 50" plus snowfall winters before last year and this year.)

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the Dec/Jan mei # was down to -1.624 from -1.519...this is the second lowest D/J reading since records started in 1950...The last six months are in the top five strongest...

Dec/Jan : -1.624

Closest actuals;

1976: -1.617

1956: -1.441

1974 : -1.940

1971 : -1.216

1989 : -1.143

2000 : -1.136

1962 : -1.083

1951 : -1.071

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Tony can you pull up the data pre 1950.... 1892-93, 1916-17, 1942-43, etc.?

Alex, I have to see if I have that info or can find it. Some of those years dont bode well for a warm (nice summer). But we didnt think this would be one of the better winter either.

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  • 1 month later...

Ok, this is probably a dumb question, but I am getting asked about it at work, and I don't feel 100% confident answering it.

We know that the earth's rotational speed increased something like 1.8micros/d from the earthquake in Japan. Is that slight of an increase in rotational speed enough to cause a torque on the ocean and produce an oceanic Kelvin wave?

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Ok, this is probably a dumb question, but I am getting asked about it at work, and I don't feel 100% confident answering it.

We know that the earth's rotational speed increased something like 1.8micros/d from the earthquake in Japan. Is that slight of an increase in rotational speed enough to cause a torque on the ocean and produce an oceanic Kelvin wave?

I am not 100% sure but if I had to venture a guess I'd probably say no.

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I am not 100% sure but if I had to venture a guess I'd probably say no.

Yeah, that's what I told people. I don't think it'll have any effect, but I'm also not 100% sure. Usually, when you think about ENSO and rotation, it's the ENSO event itself that speeds up/slows down the earth's rotation rate due to atmospheric wind stress. I don't even know if there is causality in the other direction.

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Ok, this is probably a dumb question, but I am getting asked about it at work, and I don't feel 100% confident answering it.

We know that the earth's rotational speed increased something like 1.8micros/d from the earthquake in Japan. Is that slight of an increase in rotational speed enough to cause a torque on the ocean and produce an oceanic Kelvin wave?

While we are in uncharted territory, I also came to the conclusion in the medium range thread over the philly subforum that this will probably not affect ENSO. However, angular momentum must be conserved so the global winds would have to compensate for the slight speed up. This would be an agent for an El Niño to form (along with the -QBO coming on). However, I don't think either of these things will be able to touch off a warm ENSO this go around.

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Chuck might have this one right. a subsurface warm pool is spreading like wild fire.

Agree about the Niño look in the depths but the La Niña/-PDO pattern is very well entrenched at the surface. Latest SST map shows more cooling in the Gulf of Alaska and little change in the ENSO regions:

I'd love a weak El Niño for next winter. Weak Niño on a cold globe in a -NAO decadal cycle is bound to be good news, especially when you've got the declining QBO and solar minimum to help out.

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