MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 BOM's 3.4 is at a new low 20100719,20100725,-0.97 20100726,20100801,-1.18 20100802,20100808,-0.99 20100809,20100815,-0.91 20100816,20100822,-1.21 20100823,20100829,-1.40 20100830,20100905,-1.21 20100906,20100912,-1.27 20100913,20100919,-1.32 20100920,20100926,-1.39 20100927,20101003,-1.48 20101004,20101010,-1.53 20101011,20101017,-1.37 20101018,20101024,-1.41 20101025,20101031,-1.40 20101101,20101107,-1.33 20101108,20101114,-1.23 20101115,20101121,-1.35 20101122,20101128,-1.29 20101129,20101205,-1.38 20101206,20101212,-1.43 20101213,20101219,-1.29 20101220,20101226,-1.44 20101227,20110102,-1.39 20110103,20110109,-1.45 20110110,20110116,-1.66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 according to those numbers here is a list of the strongest la nina winters... 1916-17...-22 1892-93...-15 1942-43...-15 1973-74...-15 1909-10...-14 1970-71...-14 1975-76...-14 1949-50...-13 1955-56...-13 1988-89...-13 1999-00...-13 2010-11...-13? estimated 1873-74...-12 2007-08...-12 1875-76...-11 1945-46...-11 1872-73...-10 1908-09...-10 1967-68...-10 This explains some of the analogs being used (in bold)-- I noticed some of these in Don's list also. The 1870s featured some strong la nina winters and yet they were mostly cold and snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Dec was around -1.5/-1.6 and Jan looking like it will end up about the same. CFS predicting strong warming for Feb. Looks like we will barely make strong, no flirting with '73-74. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Dec was around -1.5/-1.6 and Jan looking like it will end up about the same. CFS predicting strong warming for Feb. Looks like we will barely make strong, no flirting with '73-74. I see this Niña reloading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I see this Niña reloading. I was on board with this until a few weeks ago. The MJO moving to Phase 7/8/1 and forecasted to head back that direction in February indicates to me that the probability of a multi-year Nina has gone down. I'm not good enough to tell you by how much, but the chances of going to neutral or Nino by summer are a lot higher than they were on New Year's Day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 If I never see another mod-strong La Nina I'll be ecstatic. I've grown oh so tired of this phase haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I was on board with this until a few weeks ago. The MJO moving to Phase 7/8/1 and forecasted to head back that direction in February indicates to me that the probability of a multi-year Nina has gone down. I'm not good enough to tell you by how much, but the chances of going to neutral or Nino by summer are a lot higher than they were on New Year's Day Aren't Niñas typically multi-year events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Aren't Niñas typically multi-year events? I still think we might get a multi-year cold event, but probably it will weak some this spring while maintaining or strengthening slightly in the summer/autumn. BTW, the SOI has gone up again...it's just off the charts (1917 is the only other comparable year in this respect) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 1917 is a great analog for the strength of the la nina and the neg nao. BTW the following winter was also a la nina (1917-18) and still very snowy and cold (the only back to back 50" plus snowfall winters before last year and this year.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 right now it looks like its a west based nina, what usually happens when winter transitions into spring durring a west based nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 the Dec/Jan mei # was down to -1.624 from -1.519...this is the second lowest D/J reading since records started in 1950...The last six months are in the top five strongest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 the Dec/Jan mei # was down to -1.624 from -1.519...this is the second lowest D/J reading since records started in 1950...The last six months are in the top five strongest... Dec/Jan : -1.624 Closest actuals; 1976: -1.617 1956: -1.441 1974 : -1.940 1971 : -1.216 1989 : -1.143 2000 : -1.136 1962 : -1.083 1951 : -1.071 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Dec/Jan : -1.624 Closest actuals; 1976: -1.617 1956: -1.441 1971 : -1.216 1989 : -1.143 2000 : -1.136 1962 : -1.083 1951 : -1.071 Tony can you pull up the data pre 1950.... 1892-93, 1916-17, 1942-43, etc.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Tony can you pull up the data pre 1950.... 1892-93, 1916-17, 1942-43, etc.? Alex, I have to see if I have that info or can find it. Some of those years dont bode well for a warm (nice summer). But we didnt think this would be one of the better winter either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Dec/Jan : -1.624 Closest actuals; 1976: -1.617 1956: -1.441 1971 : -1.216 1989 : -1.143 2000 : -1.136 1962 : -1.083 1951 : -1.071 1974 was -1.940... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 1974 was -1.940... Thanks Unc. I missed it in copy. I have revised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 Ok, this is probably a dumb question, but I am getting asked about it at work, and I don't feel 100% confident answering it. We know that the earth's rotational speed increased something like 1.8micros/d from the earthquake in Japan. Is that slight of an increase in rotational speed enough to cause a torque on the ocean and produce an oceanic Kelvin wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 Ok, this is probably a dumb question, but I am getting asked about it at work, and I don't feel 100% confident answering it. We know that the earth's rotational speed increased something like 1.8micros/d from the earthquake in Japan. Is that slight of an increase in rotational speed enough to cause a torque on the ocean and produce an oceanic Kelvin wave? I am not 100% sure but if I had to venture a guess I'd probably say no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 I am not 100% sure but if I had to venture a guess I'd probably say no. Yeah, that's what I told people. I don't think it'll have any effect, but I'm also not 100% sure. Usually, when you think about ENSO and rotation, it's the ENSO event itself that speeds up/slows down the earth's rotation rate due to atmospheric wind stress. I don't even know if there is causality in the other direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 Ok, this is probably a dumb question, but I am getting asked about it at work, and I don't feel 100% confident answering it. We know that the earth's rotational speed increased something like 1.8micros/d from the earthquake in Japan. Is that slight of an increase in rotational speed enough to cause a torque on the ocean and produce an oceanic Kelvin wave? While we are in uncharted territory, I also came to the conclusion in the medium range thread over the philly subforum that this will probably not affect ENSO. However, angular momentum must be conserved so the global winds would have to compensate for the slight speed up. This would be an agent for an El Niño to form (along with the -QBO coming on). However, I don't think either of these things will be able to touch off a warm ENSO this go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Chuck might have this one right. a subsurface warm pool is spreading like wild fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Chuck might have this one right. a subsurface warm pool is spreading like wild fire. Agree about the Niño look in the depths but the La Niña/-PDO pattern is very well entrenched at the surface. Latest SST map shows more cooling in the Gulf of Alaska and little change in the ENSO regions: I'd love a weak El Niño for next winter. Weak Niño on a cold globe in a -NAO decadal cycle is bound to be good news, especially when you've got the declining QBO and solar minimum to help out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gil888 Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Is there any thread anywhere that is talking about likely ENSO status for the summer yet? It is time we have that conversation on this blog but I certainly don't want to double post... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Not to my knowledge. I've been posting my nonsense in this thread. You're welcome to start one if you wish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Been a touch of speculation about some models showing a Nino before the end of the hurricane season on the tropical thread, but this would seem to be the thread to discuss the ENSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.