Has the NINA Peaked?

[Yes_Probably_Maybe_No]

So...

Has the Nina peaked? I take it by all of the comments on declination it is, but are there any signs of restrengthening via MJO or some other process?

[nzucker]

So...

Has the Nina peaked? I take it by all of the comments on declination it is, but are there any signs of restrengthening via MJO or some other process?

Here are the CPC weeklies:

Region 1.2: -1.7C

Region 3: -1.7C

Region 3.4: -1.5C

Region 4 -1.3C

Major cooling in the eastern regions with slight warming further west. Subsurface has warmed some but strong trade winds are currently occurring. Today's SOI was +30.8 in this wind pattern:

[skierinvermont]

Here are the CPC weeklies:

Region 1.2: -1.7C

Region 3: -1.7C

Region 3.4: -1.5C

Region 4 -1.3C

Major cooling in the eastern regions with slight warming further west. Subsurface has warmed some but strong trade winds are currently occurring. Today's SOI was +30.8 in this wind pattern:

By eastern regions I take it you mean regions 1+2 since 3 held constant at -1.7 (not the -2.0 you've suggested the past two weeks!). When is our run at record strong coming?!?!!?! We are barely holding onto strong status and haven't come close to surpassing the peak in early October. I think anything above -1.7, maybe -1.8, is becoming unlikely on the trimonthlies at this point. CFS predicting -1.5.

[Fred Gossage]

By eastern regions I take it you mean regions 1+2 since 3 held constant at -1.7 (not the -2.0 you've suggested the past two weeks!). When is our run at record strong coming?!?!!?! We are barely holding onto strong status and haven't come close to surpassing the peak in early October. I think anything above -1.7, maybe -1.8, is becoming unlikely on the trimonthlies at this point.

I think that idea is gaining credibility each day, and I've been on the "super Nina" camp since early summer. Still, even if our peak is close to the moderate/strong threshold instead of deeper into strong.... the question then becomes "Will the resulting pattern still act like that associated with a strong La Nina?" We've seen it several times with Ninas that only peak in upper-end moderate...

[A-L-E-X]

I think that idea is gaining credibility each day, and I've been on the "super Nina" camp since early summer. Still, even if our peak is close to the moderate/strong threshold instead of deeper into strong.... the question then becomes "Will the resulting pattern still act like that associated with a strong La Nina?" We've seen it several times with Ninas that only peak in upper-end moderate...

well, with other indicies taking centerstage, it remains to be seen what "acting like a strong la nina" really means, as it might depend on if the neg nao stays resilient.  Some of our older strong la ninas were quite cold nationwide.

[nzucker]

By eastern regions I take it you mean regions 1+2 since 3 held constant at -1.7 (not the -2.0 you've suggested the past two weeks!). When is our run at record strong coming?!?!!?! We are barely holding onto strong status and haven't come close to surpassing the peak in early October. I think anything above -1.7, maybe -1.8, is becoming unlikely on the trimonthlies at this point. CFS predicting -1.5.

Yeah there's been a lot of cooling in Region 1.2 which appears to be continuing...also very classic -PDO look with the cold pool off Baja California and into the Gulf of Alaska, with some warmer waters developing near the Aleutians. DT makes a good point that there's been some damaging warming in the subsurface, so I may have to somewhat adjust my -1.8C to -2.0C prediction if that continues. I am surprised that Region 3.4 didn't come in a bit colder on CPC with what the TAO and Unisys are showing, appears to be a slight discrepancy so I may have to adjust warmer since CPC is the official source but I don't use it as much with the numbers only coming once per week.

We'll see though....it could be a late peak as we're just developing the classic cold pool near Central America as well as the strong -PDO which should entrain some colder waters into the ENSO region through the enhanced California current. It's starting to look a bit more like 88-89 with the upwelling near Central America but nowhere near that intense of course. We'll see if the waters brought down by the California current and upwelled near Central America spread west or if the warmer waters near Indonesia creep east as they have been doing in the subsurface. Trades should finally get into the ENSO regions this week as SOI is +30.8 today and the wind anomalies look to be shifting east...one problem has been the models have been consistently overdoing the amount of trades that get far enough east to affect the ENSO instead of just cooling the waters near Indonesia. In any case, the atmospheric influence of this thing is pretty sweet.

well, with other indicies taking centerstage, it remains to be seen what "acting like a strong la nina" really means, as it might depend on if the neg nao stays resilient. Some of our older strong la ninas were quite cold nationwide.

People automatically associate strong La Niña with warm after winters like 98-99 and 99-00 but it doesn't have to be that way.

[tacoman25]

People automatically associate strong La Niña with warm after winters like 98-99 and 99-00 but it doesn't have to be that way.

Hopefully it's clear by now to most people that recent Nina analogs are failing miserably.

[skierinvermont]

Yeah there's been a lot of cooling in Region 1.2 which appears to be continuing...also very classic -PDO look with the cold pool off Baja California and into the Gulf of Alaska, with some warmer waters developing near the Aleutians. DT makes a good point that there's been some damaging warming in the subsurface, so I may have to somewhat adjust my -1.8C to -2.0C prediction if that continues. I am surprised that Region 3.4 didn't come in a bit colder on CPC with what the TAO and Unisys are showing, appears to be a slight discrepancy so I may have to adjust warmer since CPC is the official source but I don't use it as much with the numbers only coming once per week.

We'll see though....it could be a late peak as we're just developing the classic cold pool near Central America as well as the strong -PDO which should entrain some colder waters into the ENSO region through the enhanced California current. It's starting to look a bit more like 88-89 with the upwelling near Central America but nowhere near that intense of course. We'll see if the waters brought down by the California current and upwelled near Central America spread west or if the warmer waters near Indonesia creep east as they have been doing in the subsurface. Trades should finally get into the ENSO regions this week as SOI is +30.8 today and the wind anomalies look to be shifting east...one problem has been the models have been consistently overdoing the amount of trades that get far enough east to affect the ENSO instead of just cooling the waters near Indonesia. In any case, the atmospheric influence of this thing is pretty sweet.

People automatically associate strong La Niña with warm after winters like 98-99 and 99-00 but it doesn't have to be that way.

If indeed the cold pool along C.Am is benefical for super Ninas then I think this is probably a case of too little too late. We really only have a sample size of one since I can only find SST data back to 1980 and 88-89 is the only super-Nina in that period. But I think it makes sense because you can see the warm eddies getting mixed into 3.4, which wouldn't have happened in 88-89. Although it has cooled a lot along C.Am and north of region 3, there are still warm eddies in and north of region 3 which would take a couple months to dissipate.

[nzucker]

If indeed the cold pool along C.Am is benefical for super Ninas then I think this is probably a case of too little too late. We really only have a sample size of one since I can only find SST data back to 1980 and 88-89 is the only super-Nina in that period. But I think it makes sense because you can see the warm eddies getting mixed into 3.4, which wouldn't have happened in 88-89. Although it has cooled a lot along C.Am and north of region 3, there are still warm eddies in and north of region 3 which would take a couple months to dissipate.

Is it possible to get an estimate of SST anomalies for 73-74? Any reconstructions available?

Yes it may be too late although some La Niñas can peak as late as February so we'll have to keep our eyes open.

[wxmx]

Is it possible to get an estimate of SST anomalies for 73-74? Any reconstructions available?

Yes it may be too late although some La Niñas can peak as late as February so we'll have to keep our eyes open.

http://www.stormvistamodels.com/Climopage.htm

[JBG]

Hopefully it's clear by now to most people that recent Nina analogs are failing miserably.

Yes. But earlier analogs such as 1949-50, 1953-4, 1954-5, 1967-8 1070-1, 1971-2, 1973-4, 1974-5 and 1975-6 wavered between being craptastic and merely boring, at least as far as NYC metro south. Maybe north of 42 or so some of those were great.

[skierinvermont]

http://www.stormvist...m/Climopage.htm

Cool.. looks like 73-74, 75-76 and 55-56 all had much colder waters off central America north of regions 3 and 1/2. Seems to support my theory that warmer waters in those regions this year have been mixing into 3.4 and moderating our Nina. They weren't as extreme as 88-89 and I'm not familiar with the data source so it may not be that precise, but it looks pretty good.

[nzucker]

Cool.. looks like 73-74, 75-76 and 55-56 all had much colder waters off central America north of regions 3 and 1/2. Seems to support my theory that warmer waters in those regions this year have been mixing into 3.4 and moderating our Nina. They weren't as extreme as 88-89 and I'm not familiar with the data source so it may not be that precise, but it looks pretty good.

The Niña looks pretty good right now though looking at NOAA SST anomaly maps:

12/2:

12/6 (new map):

Nice upwelling in Region 3 and appears that just in the past couple days some consolidation of cold in the western regions.

[skierinvermont]

The Niña looks pretty good right now though looking at NOAA SST anomaly maps:

Nice upwelling in Region 3 and appears that just in the past couple days some consolidation of cold in the western regions.

It seems like you have made a post saying how much it has improved/is improving once a week since the peak in early October!

But yes, it did cool some from 12/2 to 12/6. You can clearly see the moderating effect the warm eddies are having though

[nzucker]

It seems like you have made a post saying how much it has improved/is improving once a week since the peak in early October!

But yes, it did cool some from 12/2 to 12/6. You can clearly see the moderating effect the warm eddies are having though

I like how the -PDO cold tongue in the Baja is starting to cool those waters near Central America and getting towards ENSO. We'll see how it evolves in the next few days since the 12/2 to 12/6 period was nice and now we're getting into the heavy stuff with that -PDO and cold pool anchored in. It might be coming a little bit too late as you remark but we'll see...

Here is what the winds look like:

Current SOI: +32.38

[JBG]

I like how the -PDO cold tongue in the Baja is starting to cool those waters near Central America and getting towards ENSO. We'll see how it evolves in the next few days since the 12/2 to 12/6 period was nice and now we're getting into the heavy stuff with that -PDO and cold pool anchored in. It might be coming a little bit too late as you remark but we'll see...

**********

Current SOI: +32.38

I think many on here are wishcasting a Niña peak, since we all expect that a roaring Niña makes for a dull East Coast winter. However they make for great summers.

[uncle W]

lastest oni index at -1.4...mei is due for an update today...

[tacoman25]

lastest oni index at -1.4...mei is due for an update today...

Looking back at previous mod/strong Ninas...the Sep/Oct/Nov ONI was typically .2 to .5 below the eventual Nina peak. The two exceptions to this were 1964-65, which got no stronger than the SON number, and 1954, which actually peaked in Aug/Sep/Oct. Based on the average, we can expect this Nina to probably peak in the -1.6 to -1.8 range for trimonthly ONI.

[uncle W]

at -1.4 my guess would be -1.5 for the next tri monthly reading...That's where I think it levels off or rises...Does this nina have legs to carry it another year or two?....

[hckyplayer8]

lastest oni index at -1.4...mei is due for an update today...

-1.60...fairly decent rise...no?

[SnowGoose69]

-1.60...fairly decent rise...no?

73-74 rose as well and then dropped in Dec and Jan...its no guarantee just yet the Nina is weakening but its probably more likely than not that it is.

[nzucker]

73-74 rose as well and then dropped in Dec and Jan...its no guarantee just yet the Nina is weakening but its probably more likely than not that it is.

I'm wondering if the viciously cold bubble in Region 1.2 can kick this thing in the pants considering the intense trade winds around 150W, pretty much in the heart of the La Niña.

[uncle W]

mei has warmed somewhat...-1.606...up from -1.911...

[JBG]

mei has warmed somewhat...-1.606...up from -1.911...

Can I go swimming in Niño 3.4 now? Is it warm enough?

[tacoman25]

mei has warmed somewhat...-1.606...up from -1.911...

That's still very impressive. That Oct/Nov number is lower than every other year except 1975 and 1955.

[nzucker]

Latest NOAA SST maps show more cooling:

Current:

Old (12/6):

Lots of cooling between 100-120W and around 140W.

[easternsnowman]

We can always try and find a map to prove a point...lol

[nzucker]

We can always try and find a map to prove a point...lol

Huh? All the SST maps (NOAA, Unisys, ECM) show that the Niña has strengthened recently. That's what our satellites are showing. If you don't like it, go talk to NOAA.

[MN Transplant]

Might be the first time since prior to Sept that there isn't a -4 contour on the TAO subsurface map. Impressive stretch.

[Fred Gossage]

Huh? All the SST maps (NOAA, Unisys, ECM) show that the Niña has strengthened recently. That's what our satellites are showing. If you don't like it, go talk to NOAA.

After looking at this for the past couple of weeks, I am willing to bet we're in that transition period near the peak... where we'll still have cooling at the surface because of upwelling... but the sub-surface, as a whole, starts gaining heat content. I could still see us squeaking out a strong tri-monthly peak... and then, the MEI suggests this is solidly a strong Nina, and the MEI is a better indicator of how the resulting pattern will actually behave. This seems like a 2007-2008 situation... where we have a borderline situation on the ONI... but we have the pattern in the heart of the winter act like the Nina was firmly in the strong range. I don't see any reasons, as of now, for folks' previous winter forecasts to change because of this.