Snowlover11 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 So close. I wonder if/when CTP hoists some watches. CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING... ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON 1148 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. * PRECIPITATION TYPE: SNOW * ACCUMULATIONS: POSSIBILITY OF SIX INCHES OR MORE * TIMING: SPREADING NORTH ON SUNDAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ENDING ON MONDAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. * IMPACTS: TRAVEL MAY BE HAZARDOUS DUE TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW POSSIBLE IN STRONG WIND GUSTS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE GREATLY REDUCED. * WINDS: NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=PAZ066&warncounty=PAC071&firewxzone=PAZ066&local_place1=Leacock-Leola-Bareville+PA&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch Hope this all pans out URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA1201 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2010...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY ANDEASTERN MOUNTAINS OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAYAFTERNOON....LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR NEW ORLEANS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ANDGRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE STORM SHOULDFURTHER DEEPEN AND SLOW DOWN TEMPORARILY EAST OF THE NEW JERSEYCOAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS STORM TRACK ISFAVORABLE FOR HEAVY SNOW...IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES...ACROSS THELOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY...NORTHEAST ALONG INTERSTATE 81 THROUGHSCHUYLKILL COUNTY.PAZ057>059-064>066-260400-/O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0008.101226T1200Z-101227T1800Z/DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HERSHEY...POTTSVILLE...LEBANON...GETTYSBURG...YORK...LANCASTER1201 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2010...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGHMONDAY AFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGHMONDAY AFTERNOON.* LOCATION...THE COUNTIES OF ADAMS...DAUPHIN...YORK...LANCASTER... LEBANON AND SCHUYLKILL.* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES.* ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR 6 TO 10 INCHES.* TIMING...INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL BECOME STEADIER THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE SNOW COULD FALL HEAVY AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.* WINDS...NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH EARLY SUNDAY...BECOMING NORTH AND INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THIS MAY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS AND AREAS OF VERY POOR VISIBILITY IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW.* TEMPERATURES...25 TO 30 DEGREES.* VISIBILITIES...AVERAGING ONE HALF TO ONE MILE...WITH TIMES OF ONE QUARTER OF A MILE VISIBILITY.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. STAYTUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHERINFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSOBE FOUND AT...WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE.&&$$LAMBERT/CERU/KREKELER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Wow...check out the deform signature on the MM5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 from 11:48 mt holly update: I AM NOT COMFORTABLE GOING WITH A WATCH GIVEN THE HISTORY OF EACH INDIVIDUAL MODEL WITH REGARD TO THIS SYSTEM, AND I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF THE MODELS REVERSE COURSE AND TAKE ALL THIS PHASING FURTHER OUT TO SEA. I feel very confident for more western locations now, after looking at the 12z GFS ensembles. The low-track may even be slightly west of the OP track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Wow...check out the deform signature on the MM5 That's just like Feb 2006. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 If that isn't BEAUTIFUL - i don't know what is....... 4am monday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 42hr My lord... Well inside the benchmark! West Milford NJ or someone in SE NY is gonna come in with some ridiculus amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Wow...check out the deform signature on the MM5 As of this run, It looks like the winners will be most of NJ up into the hud.valley into west Ct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Total precipitation through 84 hrs..still heavy snow ongoing with a big deform band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 As someone else said - 2-6-06 all over again- hopefully that band comes through LI though- haha Wow...check out the deform signature on the MM5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Always a risk that Long Island and coastal CT goes over to wet for a while... Thanks, Voyager. So it sounds like my sister in Jim Thorpe (actually in the mountains just north of there) can also expect 6 - 10 inches? BTW that clown map still seems to show a mix or changeover once you get east of western Long Island. Maybe that's not through the entire storm though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 from 11:48 mt holly update: I AM NOT COMFORTABLE GOING WITH A WATCH GIVEN THE HISTORY OF EACH INDIVIDUAL MODEL WITH REGARD TO THIS SYSTEM, AND I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF THE MODELS REVERSE COURSE AND TAKE ALL THIS PHASING FURTHER OUT TO SEA. scrooge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 That quote has been there since much earlier this morning....with this system nothing is assured... scrooge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 (sheds a tear) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 My lord... Well inside the benchmark! West Milford NJ or someone in SE NY is gonna come in with some ridiculus amounts. Those exact progs definitely scream NNJ, especially along I287 up into SE NY get seriously wacked. NW NJ does well but would perhaps just miss the heaviest especailly out towards the Delaware river. Still a major snow for all of NJ, MECS for many and HECS for some! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I believe that NWS discussion was actually from the overnight (3am-5am) discussion update. I'm sure there mind has changed with 12z guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This was actually their early AM discussion. It wasn't changed at 11:48AM. from 11:48 mt holly update: I AM NOT COMFORTABLE GOING WITH A WATCH GIVEN THE HISTORY OF EACH INDIVIDUAL MODEL WITH REGARD TO THIS SYSTEM, AND I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF THE MODELS REVERSE COURSE AND TAKE ALL THIS PHASING FURTHER OUT TO SEA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Total precipitation through 84 hrs..still heavy snow ongoing with a big deform band Wow that actually Jackpots NW NJ and west Central NJ but in reality we all do well some just a little better then others. Will the final result be that. Probably not but we all get the idea a big snow coming for just about all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I don't know if we'll get 15:1 ratios up here. That would be nice. Orographics meso banding will come into play to enhance. Wind will make for some fun at the higher elevations. The GFS clown map is showing 20". Bufkit data gives SWF 27.7"... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This was actually their early AM discussion. It wasn't changed at 11:48AM. Yup, to avoid confusion for some, it'd be nice if they did a better job of seperating the updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 yeah its one of those things like in 12/30/00 where NW NJ got 25" and just west of the delaware got like 6 (and that was in 12 hours). Orange county and up that way will easily have 15 or 20:1 ratios so less QPF and they still end up with alot more Those exact progs definitely scream NNJ, especially along I287 up into SE NY get seriously wacked. NW NJ does well but would perhaps just miss the heaviest especailly out towards the Delaware river. Still a major snow for all of NJ, MECS for many and HECS for some! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This was actually their early AM discussion. It wasn't changed at 11:48AM. oh ok my bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Ukie looks great now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yeah, I feel bad for them too if that happens-- some of those guys (like Ji) actually stayed up in our threads late into the night lol. Why cant this be like February 1983 and bury everyone? Remember that was El Niño and uber-strong at that. No juicy STJ here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickD2011 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Wow, look at the totals on the clown map! 18+ most of NJ, NYC and PHL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Those exact progs definitely scream NNJ, especially along I287 up into SE NY get seriously wacked. NW NJ does well but would perhaps just miss the heaviest especailly out towards the Delaware river. Still a major snow for all of NJ, MECS for many and HECS for some! if that low position & intensity verify I would not be shocked to hear reports of 30+ in northern Passiac county into Orange county.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 MM5 would imply a absolute historic snowfall for the entire New York City Metro Area. Serioulsy shades of January 1996 blizzard on the MM5... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Whats Balt look like on the clown map? Can't see on iphone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This was actually their early AM discussion. It wasn't changed at 11:48AM. Merry Christmas Ray, Good luck to us TTN people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Last Saturday, the GFS was giving us a White Christmas. What a crazy seven days it has been, but I think it's time to lock it up for some awesome snows!!! How does 10-15" sound for NYC right now based on guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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