CooL Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 wow did anyone see the GEFS? http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep12036.gif enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 And slower moving!!! Tomorrow is going to be absolutely INSANE. No sleep for me tonight, that's for sure, and getting stung all day in 40 mph wind/blinding snow. PURE HEAVEN!! I really think there's a good chance we see multiple thundersnow bands break out as well since the low bombs out like crazy as it approaches us. And I'm sure Alex will be thrilled that it will be mainly a daytime snow event (lasting into the night though). I almost think this has to be some crazy dream after the models so unanimously shifted east a couple of days ago. About the multiple thundersnow bands and extremely high snowfall rates-- if that happens, it might take on the feel of Feb 1983. Funny, a mod la nina having a strong el nino type storm lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This is 1am Monday... Yea it's a bit east of it's location from the previous model run, but i don't think i've ever seen a more perfect location for a Low pressure for crazy snow for LI.. Correct me if i am wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 wow did anyone see the GEFS? http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12036.gif enjoy that actually looks a bit closer to the coast than the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The MM5 is trying to stall the low it would seem, it barely moves from 33-39...this is aspects where I tend to not trust it much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The storm is looking more N-S oriented now on the modelling and the GFS cut down very significantly on DC/Balt's precip as well as east central PA. I feel bad for those guys because of the nature of these kind of storms and the fact there's almost no margin for error in terms of being in the really heavy snow vs. no snow and just clouds. I know if I were in State College now (although they were never in the game to begin with) I'd be screaming certain expletives at my monitor. Someone(s) from around DC up to maybe west of Allentown/Port Jervis is going to get a lot of heartbreak and it sucks. Don't you worry....I've gotten used to it. 2/12/06, 3/1-2/09, 12/19/09, 2/5/10...just another one on the pile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 42hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Gorgeous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The models pretty much have us locked, now it is time to watch radars and see where the bands set up. Game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 42hr In a weak system thats too close, in a system this strong its perfect, for places like C-NJ thats probably too far in this sort of storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 MM5 is insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Definite not "crazy amount" east... but there will be some wavering. I think back here in E PA, looks like a 4-10" snowfall generally. Hopefully will see a shift back west with subsequent runs and obs... This is 1am Monday... Yea it's a bit east of it's location from the previous model run, but i don't think i've ever seen a more perfect location for a Low pressure for crazy snow for LI.. Correct me if i am wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The storm is looking more N-S oriented now on the modelling and the GFS cut down very significantly on DC/Balt's precip as well as east central PA. I feel bad for those guys because of the nature of these kind of storms and the fact there's almost no margin for error in terms of being in the really heavy snow vs. no snow and just clouds. I know if I were in State College now (although they were never in the game to begin with) I'd be screaming certain expletives at my monitor. Someone(s) from around DC up to maybe west of Allentown/Port Jervis is going to get a lot of heartbreak and it sucks. For us though, still 100% game on. Yeah, I feel bad for them too if that happens-- some of those guys (like Ji) actually stayed up in our threads late into the night lol. Why cant this be like February 1983 and bury everyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yeah def. Nice heavy banding over NNJ / NW NJ and SE NY! A slightly east solution may very well be what happens. Just a matter of how much so. A sharp cut off from big time snows to moderate snows is going to happen somewhere just a matter of where. Could the Delaware river end up being that line? Perhaps but may just as easy be 40 miles west of 20 miles east. Will be fun watching the coastal bomb and see how big a precip shield it develops and how far to the N&W it can expand it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 So close. I wonder if/when CTP hoists some watches. CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING... ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON 1148 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. * PRECIPITATION TYPE: SNOW * ACCUMULATIONS: POSSIBILITY OF SIX INCHES OR MORE * TIMING: SPREADING NORTH ON SUNDAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ENDING ON MONDAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. * IMPACTS: TRAVEL MAY BE HAZARDOUS DUE TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW POSSIBLE IN STRONG WIND GUSTS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE GREATLY REDUCED. * WINDS: NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Um. Holy crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The MM5 is trying to stall the low it would seem, it barely moves from 33-39...this is aspects where I tend to not trust it much. SG, I thought the GFS was stalling it off the Jersey Coast too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This is 1am Monday... Yea it's a bit east of it's location from the previous model run, but i don't think i've ever seen a more perfect location for a Low pressure for crazy snow for LI.. Correct me if i am wrong... A 980mb low tucked south of Montauk like that can really mean only one thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The MM5 is trying to stall the low it would seem, it barely moves from 33-39...this is aspects where I tend to not trust it much. I don't see anything not to trust regarding it's solution...the GFS is doing the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Highly doubt LI or coastal NJ jackpots with snow totals... They may jackpot with total QPF but areas like HPN...SWF will most likely jackpot with snow totals due to ridiculous ratios.. I don't know if we'll get 15:1 ratios up here. That would be nice. Orographics meso banding will come into play to enhance. Wind will make for some fun at the higher elevations. The GFS clown map is showing 20". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Thanks, Voyager. So it sounds like my sister in Jim Thorpe (actually in the mountains just north of there) can also expect 6 - 10 inches? BTW that clown map still seems to show a mix or changeover once you get east of western Long Island. Maybe that's not through the entire storm though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Just to show how even a slight tick east can make a big difference for some -- KAVP went from 1.08" on the 6z GFS to 0.44" on the 12z, and that was what, 50 miles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 45hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 from 11:48 mt holly update: I AM NOT COMFORTABLE GOING WITH A WATCH GIVEN THE HISTORY OF EACH INDIVIDUAL MODEL WITH REGARD TO THIS SYSTEM, AND I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF THE MODELS REVERSE COURSE AND TAKE ALL THIS PHASING FURTHER OUT TO SEA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Some one in the model thread said the storm is trying to go 1889 on Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yeah, I feel bad for them too if that happens-- some of those guys (like Ji) actually stayed up in our threads late into the night lol. Why cant this be like February 1983 and bury everyone? Because this isn't a Nino with a ton of Gulf and Pac moisture infused into every storm. With Ninas you really rely on dynamics to get your heavy snow here, or your luck on the front end of a redeveloper or cutter at our latitude. I definitely think this is the kind of storm where amounts will vary like crazy in a 50 mile swath. There's no big overrunning push prior to or during the storm to more evenly spread out amounts. As for 1983, that was one of those very rare storms that actually buried central VA and PA. State College got around 10" from that one, nothing like NYC but still a very decent snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The MM5 low track is like what you'd doodle on your paper in class when you were bored for the perfect storm scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Frontogenic forcing..it's a beautiful thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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