ChescoWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 These storms always arrive and depart faster than modeled... Yeah, could you imagine what the Millenium storm would have done if it stalled out like this one could? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 wow i wouldnt want to be in dc right now. Feel bad for them, wouldnt know what to believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Let's have a Long Beach get-together! When do we think the start time is? I have to drive home from upstate NY, was going to leaving tomorrow morning but now thinking tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GGEM is "east" of other guidance, but it made another pretty good shift westward...same with the Ukie. I'm almost positive that the final result will be west of the GGEM and Ukie...they are playing catch-up and are still shifting at a pretty good clip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 ULL today might even overperform and drop some Christmas presents also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Too bad there is a lot of dry air to overcome there is a 11 degrees temperature / dew point spread here. There has been a flurrie in my skywarn net just spoke to an observer in morris county in the area of hanover twp. If it flurried at all here I missed it, so to my experience that is/was all virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 These storms always arrive and depart faster than modeled... 12/19 didnt last year, it depends on atmosphere moisture levels and boundary layer moisture, also if you have a big high to the north you get early overrunning...in this case we don't have the high to the north but we're going to be relatively moist coming in so we'll likely avoid any extensive virga problems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 When do we think the start time is? I have to drive home from upstate NY, was going to leaving tomorrow morning but now thinking tonight? Yeah, I was thinking perhaps 11am...you should try to leave tonight, IMO. I say 11am, because I assume that the GFS is a tad too fast, and the NAM is a tad too slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Cannot say for sure that will happen but it is a possibility that must be considered. Again it would be a matter of how much of a shift if it where to occur. Unless it is a rather significant one at this short time range I would suspect most all of NJ would still get warning level snows. Eastern PA would probably be the ones in store for a more significant drop in totals. Again that is only if it happens. The other option and probably less likely is to come even a little bit further west and bring in the threat of mixing of coastal areas and parts of LI along with perhaps a dryslot issue. At this point its time to watch the system come together in real time and watch the short range mesoscale models. They're actually talking about this new progressive trend in the New England thread, and I agree it's definitely possible someone near or just west of the Delaware River gets the shaft if it continues. It won't take a lot but these kind of late developing coastal bombs always have a very sharp western snow edge, and it can go from 1-2" to over 10" in less than 50 miles. I think if you're east of the Delaware you're fine for now given how deep the storm is projected to become. It's hard for me to imagine a storm tucked just south of Block Island missing anyone in New Jersey. The models may have overcorrected a touch last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deano Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Media mets/outlets better start pushing this story. I've talked to more than a few people today and no one has any clue of anything more than a chance of flurries from Thursdays forecast. Most local TV news wont be broadcast until tonight because of the holiday. (Who watches CNN on Christmas?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chazman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Someone corrected CNN's snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 They're actually talking about this new progressive trend in the New England thread, and I agree it's definitely possible someone near or just west of the Delaware River gets the shaft if it continues. It won't take a lot but these kind of late developing coastal bombs always have a very sharp western snow edge, and it can go from 1-2" to over 10" in less than 50 miles. I think if you're east of the Delaware you're fine for now given how deep the storm is projected to become. It's hard for me to imagine a storm tucked just south of Block Island missing anyone in New Jersey. The models may have overcorrected a touch last night. Yeah, this is why I really like our location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yeah you can have your 30-35 inches as long as I can have 20".... deal?! lol.. I wish I was getting 30-35"! lol.. I wish I was getting 30-35"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Jeez, that same algorithm gives ISP 49". I don't think its a useful number. LE QPF looks high as well: http://www.meteor.ia...am/nam_kisp.dat I hope you can keep up with all these storms on your page, Ed. If this happens, we'll have had basically 4 KU events in a year + a week. Something not seen since the March 1960 to Feb 1961 time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 wow i wouldnt want to be in dc right now. Feel bad for them, wouldnt know what to believe I'm in northern Baltimore. Have no idea if it will snow 0 inches, 2 inches, or 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Big win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickD2011 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 No need at this point to put blizzard watches out and scare everyone. Most of the general public has no idea what the difference is between a blizzard warning and winter storm warning is anyway. Last years event which brought the blizzard warnings started off as all WSW except on LI. I thought the WSW came out 6 hours later than it should have, especially from the Jersey shore on northeast. Many people woke up this morning and since its Christmas won't turn on the TV until afternoon at best. This storm might be best spread by people traveling in their cars and hearing it come over the radio. Only problem is that most radio DJs are home for Christmas, and most of the stations are playing commercial free automated Christmas music. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 SSB MM% meanders the low NNW from 33-36...it has lower QPF amounts than it did at 45-48 last night but thats not unusual, it seems to always knock amounts down closer in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 They're actually talking about this new progressive trend in the New England thread, and I agree it's definitely possible someone near or just west of the Delaware River gets the shaft if it continues. It won't take a lot but these kind of late developing coastal bombs always have a very sharp western snow edge, and it can go from 1-2" to over 10" in less than 50 miles. I think if you're east of the Delaware you're fine for now given how deep the storm is projected to become. It's hard for me to imagine a storm tucked just south of Block Island missing anyone in New Jersey. The models may have overcorrected a touch last night. Valid points and I agree that is a distinct possibility we must keep and eye on. This really has little room to come more west then the recent GFS runs but if definitely has room to move east some and as you described that could have a major effect on some peoples end result. Coastal areas look just about golden. Rest of NJ looks good though far western areas and NW NJ may suffer a fate of dissapointment if the east idea unfolds in such a way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 MM5 looks a good distance east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Only problem is that most radio DJs are home for Christmas, and most of the stations are playing commercial free automated Christmas music. like me!..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 They're actually talking about this new progressive trend in the New England thread, and I agree it's definitely possible someone near or just west of the Delaware River gets the shaft if it continues. It won't take a lot but these kind of late developing coastal bombs always have a very sharp western snow edge, and it can go from 1-2" to over 10" in less than 50 miles. I think if you're east of the Delaware you're fine for now given how deep the storm is projected to become. It's hard for me to imagine a storm tucked just south of Block Island missing anyone in New Jersey. The models may have overcorrected a touch last night. When you say progressive, do you mean the storm might not stall out or do you mean the location of the heaviest snow bands will be progressive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yeah, this is why I really like our location. Dude, we're going to get absolutely blitzkrieged here if the low deepens like projected. I'm almost certain we get into some of the 3-4" per hour banding we saw last 12/19 and 12/30/00. I'm really hoping for thunder again, and there's a good shot at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 MM5 looks a good distance east... You are like the Ji of this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 12z GFS indicates 0.97" liquid here in my backyard in the beautiful NW Philly burbs...will see if trends continue east but for now near 10 to 12" appears a possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Dude, we're going to get absolutely blitzkrieged here if the low deepens like projected. I'm almost certain we get into some of the 3-4" per hour banding we saw last 12/19 and 12/30/00. I'm really hoping for thunder again, and there's a good shot at it. I agree - espcially based upon the latest MM5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deano Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 They're actually talking about this new progressive trend in the New England thread, and I agree it's definitely possible someone near or just west of the Delaware River gets the shaft if it continues. It won't take a lot but these kind of late developing coastal bombs always have a very sharp western snow edge, and it can go from 1-2" to over 10" in less than 50 miles. I think if you're east of the Delaware you're fine for now given how deep the storm is projected to become. It's hard for me to imagine a storm tucked just south of Block Island missing anyone in New Jersey. The models may have overcorrected a touch last night. I believe thats why Mt Holly is going conservative about the snow totals 40 miles from the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 39hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 MM5 looks a good distance east... Yeah def. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 When you say progressive, do you mean the storm might not stall out or do you mean the location of the heaviest snow bands will be progressive? The storm is looking more N-S oriented now on the modelling and the GFS cut down very significantly on DC/Balt's precip as well as east central PA. I feel bad for those guys because of the nature of these kind of storms and the fact there's almost no margin for error in terms of being in the really heavy snow vs. no snow and just clouds. I know if I were in State College now (although they were never in the game to begin with) I'd be screaming certain expletives at my monitor. Someone(s) from around DC up to maybe west of Allentown/Port Jervis is going to get a lot of heartbreak and it sucks. For us though, still 100% game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.