A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I think a general 10-18" for the region sounds good. And yeah, I'm happy that the 12z GFS nudged a bit east...I do want not another Feb 2006 scenario, where the super-band sets up to our west, and we get the mid-level dry-slot. I think the only areas that will have to worry about mixing at all will be E LI and SE CT...I don't think we would ever mix, but I still do have some dry-slot fears in the back of my mind...though the dry-slot will probably stay to our east, considering I think the 6z GFS is probably too far west, and it nudged a bit east at 12z. Hey Doug-- you must be glad to be back home for this one! So this thing is supposed to stall out 50 miles off the Jersey Coast instead of 25 miles like what the 6z GFS had? Let's just keep it there lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It's happening boys. A big shoutout to everybody in this thread who has been tracking this system since it was 7 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Let's have a Long Beach get-together! I agree! I want to see a snow storm surge near the beach-- never seen that before! And we're so close to that total lunar eclipse from a few days ago, the tides might be extra high anyway! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yep....if you're in western Montco/Chester/Berks/Schuylkill/Lancaster, etc. there's going to be a gradient somewhere in there between 2" and 8" over 20-25 miles... True, lets face it, this is a monster storm for coastal areas, not us inland. I'm happy for those folks too...I'd have no problem with 4-8 inches of snow back this far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Highly doubt LI or coastal NJ jackpots with snow totals... They may jackpot with total QPF but areas like HPN...SWF will most likely jackpot with snow totals due to ridiculous ratios.. Yeah you can have your 30-35 inches as long as I can have 20".... deal?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It would appear to my very uneducated eye- (so correct me if i am wrong) - the MM5 is about 35-50 miles further east at the 30th hour as compared to the 42nd hour from the 00z lastnight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It's happening boys. A big shoutout to everybody in this thread who has been tracking this system since it was 7 days away. wow..has it only been 7 days?? Seems like this has been forever! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Hey Doug-- you must be glad to be back home for this one! So this thing is supposed to stall out 50 miles off the Jersey Coast instead of 25 miles like what the 6z GFS had? Let's just keep it there lol. Yeah, that's honestly what I envision. I actually wouldn't be surprised if Rutgers gets more snow than us, if the banding sets up along I-95, but either way, I am very glad to be home! And if you recall, even for December 19th last year, the models had a last-minute "nudge" east, which put LI in the jackpot, even though the entire area was originally forecasted to have the same QPF. We don't quite have the blocking that that event did, however we do have the La Nina, and I think there is a reason why the 12z GFS nudged a bit east. However, I don't really see it shifting much more east than the 12z GFS at all...I think the 12z GFS, as a whole, looks very reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 A bit SHOUTOUT to YOU buddy... Your analysis has been ridiculous... I can't get over your knowledge and skill at your age... It's an honor to have you here... It's happening boys. A big shoutout to everybody in this thread who has been tracking this system since it was 7 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Thank goodness I have a great Girlfriend who lets me hit refresh every 5 seconds here without complaining. I'm getting psyched, now food wise, when do the major food stores reopen? Again, a second shout out to Jefflaw, something about those wrap around snows that put down inches more after we have all shoveled our paths...but instead of his Monday 10AM to 3PM wish, I'd take it to Tuesday morning 6AM Life Jeff understands, Nass cnty has seemed to miss out a bit on the big wallops. Here's to this one being a record setting one from Mineola to Long Beach. I'll be up till 4AM later tonight then get 3 hours sleep and then I'm a go. I'm just trying to differentiate between realistic QPF and fantasy QPF. Jeff...what was that date for Central Park breaking theior 1947 record.? I remember them getting those bands at the end that smashed the records. Also, any guess as to when we go completely overcast? My fantasy: 20-30 inches within a 30 hour time frame with minimal lulls and drifts that reach my five foot fence. Jeff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerseystorm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This storm has had more twists and turns than the last 8 minutes of an EAGLES game!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yes, I am! Is this thing supposed to stall out near Cape May? Maybe like 50 miles east of there? if so, it might mean two days of snow! Wanna go for a swim off of Long Beach like the Polar Bears Club does? LMAO Uhhh.... not tomorrow!! But I go on Super Bowl Sunday and it gets more insane every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 heart breaker to sent in for weenies west of the garden state parkway? if indeed according to snowgoose models start shifting east again? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This storm has had more twists and turns than the last 8 minutes of an EAGLES game!!! Except in the end this time, NY will win............on final snowfall totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It would appear to my very uneducated eye- (so correct me if i am wrong) - the MM5 is about 35-50 miles further east at the 30th hour as compared to the 42nd hour from the 00z lastnight.. It is but from 27-30 its motion appears to go from being 040-050 to more around 020 or so, so it begins turning more NNE after 27 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNJwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GGEM stronger thru hr 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 heart breaker to sent in for weenies west of the garden state parkway? if indeed according to snowgoose models start shifting east again? lol It shouldn't be a big deal...I could see if shifting about 25 miles east of where the 12z GFS has it. I expect the NAM to continue trending west, honestly, and the SREFs to nudge a bit east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yeah, that's honestly what I envision. I actually wouldn't be surprised if Rutgers gets more snow than us, if the banding sets up along I-95, but either way, I am very glad to be home! And if you recall, even for December 19th last year, the models had a last-minute "nudge" east, which put LI in the jackpot, even though the entire area was originally forecasted to have the same QPF. We don't quite have the blocking that that event did, however we do have the La Nina, and I think there is a reason why the 12z GFS nudged a bit east. However, I don't really see it shifting much more east than the 12z GFS at all...I think the 12z GFS, as a whole, looks very reasonable. I definitely like the fact that the NAM doubled Nassau County's QPF at 12z (and HPC said the NAM isn't deep enough with the trough), and the trough looks so deep at this point. We're going to get absolutely smoked, whether we're the jackpot or not. This really could be a 12/19/09 or 12/30/00 type dynamic and explosive system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Gkrangers - can you say snowed in? Iso, this may top any storm you had from last winter.... especially snow+wind+duration! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It shouldn't be a big deal...I could see if shifting about 25 miles east of where the 12z GFS has it. I expect the NAM to continue trending west, honestly, and the SREFs to nudge a bit east. Yeah, I think all of us west of I-95 need to realize this ain't "our" storm....be happy with enough snow to shovel and let our friends to the northeast enjoy getting buried under 10-20 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Where are you located?? the 2/6/06 storm put down 26+ inches in nyc.. I only got about 15-17" if that in western suffolk... The mega band didn't make it east to LI Thank goodness I have a great Girlfriend who lets me hit refresh every 5 seconds here without complaining. . I'm getting psyched, now food wise, when do the major food stores reopen? Again, a second shout out to Jefflaw, something about those wrap around snows that put down inches more after we have all shoveled our paths...but instead of his Monday 10AM to 3PM wish, I'd take it to Tuesday morning 6AM Life Jeff understands, Nass cnty has seemed to miss out a bit on the big wallops. Here's to this one being a record setting one from Mineola to Long Beach. I'll be up till 4AM later tonight then get 3 hours sleep and then I'm a go. I'm just trying to differentiate between realistic QPF and fantasy QPF. Jeff...what was that date for Central Park breaking theior 1947 record.? I remember them getting those bands at the end that smashed the records. Also, any guess as to when we go completely overcast? My fantasy: 20-30 inches within a 30 hour time frame with minimal lulls and drifts that reach my five foot fence. Jeff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I definitely like the fact that the NAM doubled Nassau County's QPF at 12z (and HPC said the NAM isn't deep enough with the trough), and the trough looks so deep at this point. We're going to get absolutely smoked, whether we're the jackpot or not. This really could be a 12/19/09 or 12/30/00 type dynamic and explosive system. I'm telling you now the NAM is going to spit out some sort of insane QPF on its 18z run, it always does that on the 18 run 24 hours out...always.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I definitely like the fact that the NAM doubled Nassau County's QPF at 12z (and HPC said the NAM isn't deep enough with the trough), and the trough looks so deep at this point. We're going to get absolutely smoked, whether we're the jackpot or not. This really could be a 12/19/09 or 12/30/00 type dynamic and explosive system. Yeah, could you imagine what the Millenium storm would have done if it stalled out like this one could? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GGEM at 36. 985 headed for the BM. Around .80" for NYC through 48, maybe a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerseystorm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 That little shift east may take away some of those boundary layer issues closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 heart breaker to sent in for weenies west of the garden state parkway? if indeed according to snowgoose models start shifting east again? lol Cannot say for sure that will happen but it is a possibility that must be considered. Again it would be a matter of how much of a shift if it where to occur. Unless it is a rather significant one at this short time range I would suspect most all of NJ would still get warning level snows. Eastern PA would probably be the ones in store for a more significant drop in totals. Again that is only if it happens. The other option and probably less likely is to come even a little bit further west and bring in the threat of mixing of coastal areas and parts of LI along with perhaps a dryslot issue. At this point its time to watch the system come together in real time and watch the short range mesoscale models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm In Lynbrook/Valley Stream Jeff What are some of the insane QPF amounts for Nassau County? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 ukie at 12z looks exactly like the 12z ggem....maps where posted in the sne thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSNN4 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Too bad there is a lot of dry air to overcome there is a 11 degrees temperature / dew point spread here. There has been a flurrie in my skywarn net just spoke to an observer in morris county in the area of hanover twp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The MM5 looks identical these models u guys are posting... Perhaps a little weaker w/ the low, but i can't tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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