NortheastPAWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Lol at the SREFs from earlier this morning..wow They look like a western outlier at this point...will probably shift east at 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The CRAS is in Altoona Pa again...gotta love that model...someone defined it on urban dictionary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 West Milford certainly does! The advantage of being more north but also just east enough plus the extra orographic help! also measuring in drifts helps lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Based upon what you guys are saying this is 12/19/09 - snow totals for Long Island - all over again... But this time with lots of wind... This is beginning to scare the **** out of me! Oh ya, CNJ gets CRUSHED!!!!!!! The difference between that storm and this one is we only got 1-3" from 12/19.. This storm looks to drop 15-25" up here...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 42 hours away boys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Man... Thanks for the shout out... Your analysis of previous events are spot on.. And your question as to how will this stack up to this area's (Nassau and Suffolk County) is a great question... Like you said, there have been many storms in the past, like 2/6/06, or 1/7/96 which gave areas of the METRO area insane amounts of snow but left Nassau County with half as much snow.. 12/19/09 being the exception as Central Suffolk did do extremely well.. Again, though, based upon what others are saying with respect to the model output, it would appear that this storm may very well be one of Long Island's Best storms.. Again the potential wind aspect of this storm is what really scares me! I have to chime in. My recollections of snow in NYC/LI from the 1960's to now are : 1966-67 amazing Lindsay snowstorm 2.9.69 amazing 1970-1977 nothing too much 1978 amazing 1983..amazing 1984-1992 Nothing too much 1993 amazing 1994, 1996 amazing The 2000-2010 time frame...well all records broken, bliizard after blizzard, more blizzard warnings than the past 50 years before combined. Can every storm really trump or at at the very least poterntailly trump the biggie before it? 1996 and PD1 and 2 give me great memories. To think for one moment that tommorow's storm can even be in that league is phenomenal. Yes I remember 3.5.01 and the depressing let down of that storm. I was going to go to my house in sullivan county NY to ride out this week off, but obviously it pays to stay here in nassau county Long Island. I have to say I love Jefflaw's posts, I share hie enthusiasm. But realistically, is this going to really be a 1-2 foot monster with 60MPH winds and 10 foot drifts? My basic question is precisely this: For Nassau County, does this storm have the potential to be the mother of all storms? When NYC broke their alltime one storm record (forgot the date on that) Nassau county got onloy half of that. Can this storm for Nassau County be that huge , is this a superstorm aka 1993 (but for the coast) or just a big snowstorm? Jeff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 They look like a western outlier at this point...will probably shift east at 15z. I think there may be a very gradual east shift the next few model runs, probably nothing more than 50 miles or so overall but I think a consensus east of where the GFS and some of those MM5 models were sets up....SSB MM5 through 27 hours is more east than the 00z was through 39...probably a good thing as that may have been too far west for some parts of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. * LOCATIONS...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY... AND NEW YORK CITY. * HAZARDS...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH GUSTY WINDS. * ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 10 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Dc and balt look like 5-7"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Dc and balt look like 5-7"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I think there may be a very gradual east shift the next few model runs, probably nothing more than 50 miles or so overall but I think a consensus east of where the GFS and some of those MM5 models were sets up. Yeah, of course where I, ptb, and Voyager are 50 miles could mean the difference between 8-12" and 1-3". So a huge deal for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I think there may be a very gradual east shift the next few model runs, probably nothing more than 50 miles or so overall but I think a consensus east of where the GFS and some of those MM5 models were sets up. I agree with this. There will probably be a slight east shift in the western-most models...I really don't think this pattern can let the trends go anymore west, especially with the fast-flow from a La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I cant believe we dont have a special weather statement on my point forecast in Berks cnty, I have already been put on notice from my zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. Those numbers seem low * LOCATIONS...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY... AND NEW YORK CITY. * HAZARDS...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH GUSTY WINDS. * ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 10 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The WWA I posted was for the city...I believe they have 6-12"+ on the Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I think there may be a very gradual east shift the next few model runs, probably nothing more than 50 miles or so overall but I think a consensus east of where the GFS and some of those MM5 models were sets up....SSB MM5 through 27 hours is more east than the 00z was through 39...probably a good thing as that may have been too far west for some parts of the area. The way models performed I think its safe to say a 50 mile shift in any direction has equal chances.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 they'll get the highest amount in Northern NJ for sure. The jackpot will likely be central shore areas somewhere between AC and AP. West Milford certainly does! The advantage of being more north but also just east enough plus the extra orographic help! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I think there may be a very gradual east shift the next few model runs, probably nothing more than 50 miles or so overall but I think a consensus east of where the GFS and some of those MM5 models were sets up....SSB MM5 through 27 hours is more east than the 00z was through 39...probably a good thing as that may have been too far west for some parts of the area. Yes, because the 6z GFS actually had the mix/changeover line hitting JFK at hour 45 lol-- dont need that! I would be perfectly fine with the 0z GFS scenario verifying-- which gave me about 15 inches. The local mets are now upping their totals to about a foot for NYC and 18" for Long Island with up to 60mph gusts-- does that look good to you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 also measuring in drifts helps lol Hey don't give away their secret! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Where is Ray? I bet he is probably calibrating his snow measuring board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Checking from my pda so sorry about asking the question if it already has been asked, but will conditions be awful at the start of Eagles game (830 tomorrow night)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Based upon my review of the 12z MM5 - the low at the 27th hour is like 25 miles further east of the same time on the 00z MM5 - east of cape hattereus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I think there's a very high likelihood of thundersnow and some extremely heavy (3"+ per hour) snow rates in places. Just look at the dynamics as the low closes off at 500mb, just insane. Omegas look extremely favorable as well. Tomorrow's going to be one incredibly dynamic and exciting day. And the storm slides just a bit east so the worry for dryslots/rain is gone. Definitely a likelihood for blizzard conditions along the coast as well, I'm surprised blizzard watches aren't up for the area. The beaches are going to take an incredible pounding, and there's almost certainly going to be coastal flood concerns for some of the back bays and the Long Island Sound. This looks like a replay of the storms from last winter but with much more wind added! Maybe we can exceed some of those amounts from last season's snowstorms too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yes, because the 6z GFS actually had the mix/changeover line hitting JFK at hour 45 lol-- dont need that! I would be perfectly fine with the 0z GFS scenario verifying-- which gave me about 15 inches. The local mets are now upping their totals to about a foot for NYC and 18" for Long Island with up to 60mph gusts-- does that look good to you? Highly doubt LI or coastal NJ jackpots with snow totals... They may jackpot with total QPF but areas like HPN...SWF will most likely jackpot with snow totals due to ridiculous ratios.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yes, because the 6z GFS actually had the mix/changeover line hitting JFK at hour 45 lol-- dont need that! I would be perfectly fine with the 0z GFS scenario verifying-- which gave me about 15 inches. The local mets are now upping their totals to about a foot for NYC and 18" for Long Island with up to 60mph gusts-- does that look good to you? I think a general 10-18" for the region sounds good. And yeah, I'm happy that the 12z GFS nudged a bit east...I do want not another Feb 2006 scenario, where the super-band sets up to our west, and we get the mid-level dry-slot. I think the only areas that will have to worry about mixing at all will be E LI and SE CT...I don't think we would ever mix, but I still do have some dry-slot fears in the back of my mind...though the dry-slot will probably stay to our east, considering I think the 6z GFS is probably too far west, and it nudged a bit east at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNJwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 anyone have a link to the SUNY MM5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 anyone have a link to the SUNY MM5? http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/cgi-bin/alt_date_mm5.cgi?2010122512 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 And slower moving!!! Tomorrow is going to be absolutely INSANE. No sleep for me tonight, that's for sure, and getting stung all day in 40 mph wind/blinding snow. PURE HEAVEN!! I really think there's a good chance we see multiple thundersnow bands break out as well since the low bombs out like crazy as it approaches us. And I'm sure Alex will be thrilled that it will be mainly a daytime snow event (lasting into the night though). I almost think this has to be some crazy dream after the models so unanimously shifted east a couple of days ago. Yes, I am! Is this thing supposed to stall out near Cape May? Maybe like 50 miles east of there? if so, it might mean two days of snow! Wanna go for a swim off of Long Beach like the Polar Bears Club does? LMAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yes, I am! Is this thing supposed to stall out near Cape May? Maybe like 50 miles east of there? if so, it might mean two days of snow! Wanna go for a swim off of Long Beach like the Polar Bears Club does? LMAO Let's have a Long Beach get-together! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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