MikeS Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I wish that bomb in central jersey would could just a tad more north and crush us, but seriously...... wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Possible but I tend to doubt the GFS is going to be able really nail down the exact sweet spots just yet. Interestingly alot of places get hammered tomorrow afternoon into the evening then it cuts off. EWR for example would have a foot on the ground by 7pm tomorrow with about 4-6" to follow by Monday morning. Is this a CNJ/NYC/LI special? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yep....if you're in western Montco/Chester/Berks/Schuylkill/Lancaster, etc. there's going to be a gradient somewhere in there between 2" and 8" over 20-25 miles... gfs show 12 + for all of. SEPA= Schuykill countyis basically central pa and lancaster county. Shows 8 + in this zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I would like the 6z back... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Epic run. If it happens just like GFS showed, this would rival some of NYC's classic storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 For 40N 74.5W at 36 hours, which is when the GFS is pounding NJ hardest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GFS seems to indicate about 1.50 near NYC immediate metro...cut that to 1.00-1.10 to be more logical and assume the typical overdone amounts and you get around 12-15 inches with 12-1 ratios....banding of course could mean more if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 gfs show 12 + for all of. SEPA= Schuykill countyis basically central pa and lancaster county. Shows 8 + in this zone lower resolution on the gfs...someone will get shafted...always happens with explosive developing storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYStorm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Anyone care to give their best estimate of a model consensus start and end dates/times for NYC? Looks to me from the 12z GFS like we are in flurries/light snow by Monday morning and it's over by early Monday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Based upon what you guys are saying this is 12/19/09 - snow totals for Long Island - all over again... But this time with lots of wind... This is beginning to scare the **** out of me! Oh ya, CNJ gets CRUSHED!!!!!!! And slower moving!!! Tomorrow is going to be absolutely INSANE. No sleep for me tonight, that's for sure, and getting stung all day in 40 mph wind/blinding snow. PURE HEAVEN!! I really think there's a good chance we see multiple thundersnow bands break out as well since the low bombs out like crazy as it approaches us. And I'm sure Alex will be thrilled that it will be mainly a daytime snow event (lasting into the night though). I almost think this has to be some crazy dream after the models so unanimously shifted east a couple of days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I wish that bomb in central jersey would could just a tad more north and crush us, but seriously...... wow! I would not worry at all about that just yet. Mesoscale features will have big impact on where exactly the best banding sets up. The important part is it is looking more and more likely this will be a very dynamic system with a high impact snow event for much if not all fo NJ. Who ends up with the most in the end? Time will tell! If the GFS is right all of NJ gets 1-2' with a jackpot region exceeding 2'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Anyone care to give their best estimate of a model consensus start and end dates/times for NYC? Looks to me from the 12z GFS like we are in flurries/light snow by Monday morning and it's over by early Monday afternoon. 15Z start time, end time 15Z Monday AM...CPK total 13 inches...I accounted for the infamous zoo ruler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I think Upton has it's hands full today... This is turning out to possibly be one of Long Island's Classic Blizzards.. Blizzard Warnings will have to be issued.. For the Coastal areas of CNJ, NYC vicinity and Long Island if the GFS is to be believed.. jeff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Maybe I missed it, but OKX just updated their AFD, going more bullish on snow, as expected, given developing model consistency, better input data and smaller error bars on the forecast, being closer to the event... .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --FOR TONIGHT...LOWS NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S...WITH A LOWERING OVERCAST AND LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE. LOWS SLIGHTLY COLDER OUTLYING AREAS WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS IN SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM NEAR FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO OFFSHORE OF CAROLINAS. JET STREAM PHASING BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL RESULT IN INTENSIFYING JET OF NEAR 100 KT. THIS WILL LEAD TO GREATER DIVERGENCE ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR OMEGA FIELD TO INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AT THE SURFACE. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS THROUGH TONIGHT. THEREAFTER...SOME DIFFERENCES ARISE AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF AND THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS. BY SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND MOVE IN A NORTHEAST DIRECTION AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF. DECREASING WAVELENGTH BETWEEN TROUGH AND RIDGE DOWNSTREAM WILL FAVOR CONTINUING OFFSHORE CYCLOGENESIS. SNOW COULD START AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING BUT MOST OF WILL FALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME COINCIDING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE OMEGA FIELD AND RAPID DEEPENING OF THE LOW PRESSURE. GENERALLY GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A LARGE CHANGE BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z RUNS FROM MORE OFFSHORE TO CLOSER TO COAST. THE NAM...GEM...AND UKMET ARE FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE SREF IN BETWEEN AND CLOSE TO THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE SREF HAS TRENDED HIGHER WITH PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP AS WELL. THE TRACK STILL HAS UNCERTAINTY AS GFS O6Z RUN TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE WEST. THIS COULD HAVE RESULTING CHANGES TO QPF AMOUNTS AND RAIN/SNOW LINE WITH THE FORECAST IF THIS TREND HOLDS WITH OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE. THEREFORE...POPS INCREASED LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND WITH A BLEND OF HPC/SREF/NAM QPF AS WELL AS ACCOUNTING FOR AROUND 10 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS...SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE GENERALLY 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY FARTHER EAST OR IF MESOSCALE ENHANCED BANDING SETS UP. QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE IN A NW TO SE GRADIENT WITH HIGHER TOTALS TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS. THINK THAT PLACES FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WILL HAVE MORE OF A HEAVY WET SNOW. WINTER STORM WATCH WAS ISSUED WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE AS MODEL AGREEMENT HAS INCREASED COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS ESPECIALLY WITH ECMWF TRENDING CLOSER TO THE COAST. STEEP GRADIENT IN PRESSURE AS LOW PRESSURE DROPS DUE TO BAROCLINICITY WILL ALSO RESULT IN VERY GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER CHANCE OF THESE WINDS TOWARDS THE COAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN/COASTAL SECTIONS. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthNJwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Hour 42 is the sweet spot for the NYC metro area and North Jersey...shades of some historic blizzards in that frame. I'm looking forward to seeing what the GFS Sampled Points page spits out for that timeframe. That's an incredible deformation band and a pressure gradient unlike any I've seen in recent snowstorms, along with the ridiculous 850mb wind speeds into the 90 mph range. Verifying a blizzard is a very difficult thing to do, but I think one of the NYC terminals (JFK, LGA, EWR) has a real chance to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 West Milford. They always get the most :-) I would not worry at all about that just yet. Mesoscale features will have big impact on where exactly the best banding sets up. The important part is it is looking more and more likely this will be a very dynamic system with a high impact snow event for much if not all fo NJ. Who ends up with the most in the end? Time will tell! If the GFS is right all of NJ gets 1-2' with a jackpot region exceeding 2'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Since when did NJ become the snow capital of the East? Haha. You guys got the jackpot with a couple of the storms last year as well. It will be interesting to see how this plays out, that's for sure. I wish the NAM would show a better solution, though, as I just can't ignore it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I have to chime in. My recollections of snow in NYC/LI from the 1960's to now are : 1966-67 amazing Lindsay snowstorm 2.9.69 amazing 1970-1977 nothing too much 1978 amazing 1983..amazing 1984-1992 Nothing too much 1993 amazing 1994, 1996 amazing The 2000-2010 time frame...well all records broken, bliizard after blizzard, more blizzard warnings than the past 50 years before combined. Can every storm really trump or at at the very least poterntailly trump the biggie before it? 1996 and PD1 and 2 give me great memories. To think for one moment that tommorow's storm can even be in that league is phenomenal. Yes I remember 3.5.01 and the depressing let down of that storm. I was going to go to my house in sullivan county NY to ride out this week off, but obviously it pays to stay here in nassau county Long Island. I have to say I love Jefflaw's posts, I share hie enthusiasm. But realistically, is this going to really be a 1-2 foot monster with 60MPH winds and 10 foot drifts? My basic question is precisely this: For Nassau County, does this storm have the potential to be the mother of all storms? When NYC broke their alltime one storm record (forgot the date on that) Nassau county got onloy half of that. Can this storm for Nassau County be that huge , is this a superstorm aka 1993 (but for the coast) or just a big snowstorm? Jeff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 West Milford. They always get the most :-) West Milford certainly does! The advantage of being more north but also just east enough plus the extra orographic help! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Hour 42 is the sweet spot for the NYC metro area and North Jersey...shades of some historic blizzards in that frame. I'm looking forward to seeing what the GFS Sampled Points page spits out for that timeframe. That's an incredible deformation band and a pressure gradient unlike any I've seen in recent snowstorms, along with the ridiculous 850mb wind speeds into the 90 mph range. Verifying a blizzard is a very difficult thing to do, but I think one of the NYC terminals (JFK, LGA, EWR) has a real chance to do it. Start time for NYC and end time?? People keep talking about it stalling, not stalling- moving in faster and leaving faster? Can we nail down approximately the start and possible finish time... I would love an extended light snow backlash of 2-4" from like 10am to 3pm monday... hahahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 15Z start time, end time 15Z Monday AM...CPK total 13 inches...I accounted for the infamous zoo ruler. CPK is Chesapeake, Virginia, Central Park is NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Since when did NJ become the snow capital of the East? Haha. You guys got the jackpot with a couple of the storms last year as well. It will be interesting to see how this plays out, that's for sure. I wish the NAM would show a better solution, though, as I just can't ignore it. having a big ocean nearby always helps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 West Milford certainly does! The advantage of being more north but also just east enough plus the extra orographic help! Yeah, West Milford is usually the winner. In my immediate area, Oakland tends to do the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I will take 1.25+ with decent ratios up here.. I likey! Ratios of 18:1 & 20:1 are very likely up here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Start time for NYC and end time?? People keep talking about it stalling, not stalling- moving in faster and leaving faster? Can we nail down approximately the start and possible finish time... I would love an extended light snow backlash of 2-4" from like 10am to 3pm monday... hahahaha looks like 10am Sunday thru 10am Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Lol at the SREFs from earlier this morning..wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 West Milford. They always get the most :-) haha, someone cuts the bottom of the ruler off their. So they start at 6 inches to begin with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yeah, West Milford is usually the winner. In my immediate area, Oakland tends to do the best. I remember WM had an insane total from one of this past February storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yea, John. Those SREFS look amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The SREFs are indicating at least a 70% chance of 1"/hr rates over NYC at 03z Mondat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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