gkrangers Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Through 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Still over 1.50" for NYC, LI and the NJ shore. That CCB tomorrow afternoon and night is going to be amazing to witness. I could really see potential for significant tree and even property damage if these 50-60 mph winds actually happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 thu 36 and still snowing in nj/nyc north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Let's shoot to break the record for a single snowstorm that was set on Feb. 11-12, 2006, when 26.9 inches fell at Central Park, New York City. Do you really think thats possible? I know that they dynamics and banding will be great with this storm, but 06's band was an absolute monster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 This is a time when I'm happy to have regional threads, because the DC people are probably very upset right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 NAM and GFS are quite similar on QPF over New Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 00z GFS 00z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 NAM and GFS are quite similar on QPF over New Jersey. A good place to be within 24 hours.. Foot plus area wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rok Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 This is a time when I'm happy to have regional threads, because the DC people are probably very upset right now. Have u popped over to the main thread?? It's like someone died Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Through 36. I think isotherms get the gfs early.....and made his map off it....... Yes the gfs is a great hit for us...i was trying to imply that its avery tight gradient west of the del...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 The piece of energy diving into Arkansas is really going to capture the storm, it is a thing of beauty to behold on the WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I think that's the key...the wind direction. The DC-Baltimore-Philly corridor got on the west side of the low with a westerly component to the wind and CAA. Here, we have that type of scenario setting up with this storm. The peak winds are modeled as being either N or NNW from NYC on west. LI and east will have an easterly component in all likelihood, but, being on the coast, tend to do well anyway. This makes logical sense to me and am inclined to agree with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I think we need to separate the areas. It's clear, NYC, Eastern NJ and LI will get dumped on. We don't have to worry about 10 mile shifts. GFS, NAM and SREFS all show 1.50"-1.75" for NYC. That's as unanimous as possible for a pounding snowfall. RGEM shows 20-25mm from NYC east. That's around 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Apparently Tom's River is at exactly 2 inches of precip at hour 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 00z GFS 00z NAM thanks for posting that...thats why i said they where similiar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 WOW!! Hour 27 depicting 80-85 knot winds at 850 mb. That's almost unheard of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Sref has more snow back here the either nam or GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Nothing to worry about folks. Nothing has changed. Were in good shape. It's inside the benchmark Yeah, almost an identical run to 18z. Maybe a hair weaker, drier (except SNE), and east. But if you reran the model 10 times with 15 minute intervals between initial data, most runs would probably differ to a greater extent than 18z and 0z. This kind of consistency is comforting in the short range. However, for those on the western fringe, this minuscule shift looks a lot worse on the graphics. But obviously we won't know where the snow sets up until tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 WOW!! Hour 27 depicting 80-85 knot winds at 850 mb. That's almost unheard of It's unreal, same things its been showing for 12z and 18z which brought 55-60kt gusts down on bufkit tomorrow evening on Jersey shore and LI...70kt arrow was right above it where mixing would allow with no inversion up to id say 200oft at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 This is a time when I'm happy to have regional threads, because the DC people are probably very upset right now. They've taken over the main 00z model thread, and it's unusable at this point. You would think the NAM and GFS were hitting Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 its sort of the reverse of last Feb 5 though less extreme. Everyone near Philly on south knew they were getting blasted while we were nervously watching the difference between an inch or 6. It sucks being on the fringe of a storm, like being near the rain/snow/sleet line and not knowing what you're going to wake up to I think we need to separate the areas. It's clear, NYC, Eastern NJ and LI will get dumped on. We don't have to worry about 10 mile shifts. GFS, NAM and SREFS all show 1.50"-1.75" for NYC. That's as unanimous as possible for a pounding snowfall. RGEM shows 20-25mm from NYC east. That's around 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 WOW!! Hour 27 depicting 80-85 knot winds at 850 mb. That's almost unheard of Hopefully I'll still have power tomorrow night so that I can read/post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 WOW!! Hour 27 depicting 80-85 knot winds at 850 mb. That's almost unheard of scary stuff..damaging winds and blowing snow will make it very dangerous to be outside..wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 It's impossible to predict precisely where the meso-scale dynamics will be best but with thunder snow and banding I believe some lucky or unlucky folks are in for a record book event. It will come down to watching the radar, mesoscale models, data and nowcasting. Do you really think thats possible? I know that they dynamics and banding will be great with this storm, but 06's band was an absolute monster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Hopefully I'll still have power tomorrow night so that I can read/post. I have internet on my phone..I'll make sure I charge it up tonight..man that's something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 UKIE looks like it's a nice hit. Tough to tell with those precip maps that skip every 6 hours but position of low and strength look ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 WOW!! Hour 27 depicting 80-85 knot winds at 850 mb. That's almost unheard of Yeah for Long Island and the New Jersey Shore for sure. I think West of the city will see probably 40-45 gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yak Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Do you really think thats possible? I know that they dynamics and banding will be great with this storm, but 06's band was an absolute monster Alpha, your radar image there just might be confused with the current radar at this time tomorrow. Just sayin'... Best of luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I think many are forgetting this is subforum doesn't just have the immediate NYC area included. Last winter I tried not to gloat for that very reason. The superthreads and now subforums have more than one area in them. It's ok to be excited of course. As far as the 0z runs go, this last minute bombing out thing had me concerned this entire time. The gradients can be pretty insane with this type of setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 man just think about the emotions dc'ers must be dealing with right now. Look at 6z gfs vs current 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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