NYC/PHL Dec 26-27 Potential - Part 7

[am19psu]

Pretty good track record for the model. Canadians say it's a great short range model - better than GFS or NAM. Anecdotally, when I've payed attention it has done well with SLP track and QPF distribution with coastal snowstorms. It definitely concerns me a little bit.

Look, I know you're a quantitative guy. There's reason you never see the RGEM in any HPC discos. It's a not a good model, and the NAM is only barely better. The NAM is great within 12 hours for finding meso structures, but otherwise, I'd rather take the globals.

[LocoAko]

I know you wrote the 15z SREFs, but are you actually talking about the 21z?

Nope, 15Z. Those were the profiles loaded from OKX's site so I assumed they were the most recent ones. Either way, they haven't changed much from then, as I understand it. I'll keep checking. But yeah, the wind potential on these profiles looks quite intense, not to mention the snow totals of course.

[Allsnow]

hr 15 996 just east of hse...light snow for us

[WintersGrasp]

That's odd uptin just updated and is now calling for 8-12 only. I don't disagree just strange that they'd lower it a bit

[NortheastPAWx]

0z GFS appears to be east of its 18z position through hr12.

[jrodd321]

GFS looking much better at 00z compared to 18z. Precip shield more expansive.

[LocoAko]

http://www.blogtalkr...meteorologist-s

Doubters should listen to this.

NJNYPAWeather? No thanks.

[NJwinter23]

That's odd uptin just updated and is now calling for 8-12 only. I don't disagree just strange that they'd lower it a bit

Where are you..point and click/ warnings i just looked at over NYC and LI are still 11-16/12-18 or whatever

[Allsnow]

hr 21 00z gfs its a bit further east... .25 for the citys so far

[NorthNJwx]

From Upton's 10:13 PM AFD Update:

SOME OF THE 18Z DATA IS RATHER CONCERNING. GFS IS SUGGESTING 60+KT AT 500 FT AND UP TO 90 KT AT 2000` (KLGA BUFKIT AT 03Z). WE COULDVERY WELL SEE WIND GUSTS OVER 50 KT RESULTING IN SOME SIGNIFICANTPOWER OUTAGES.

[tornadojay]

0z GFS is still ok. It's hooking back in. Still a decent hit

[Stormlover74]

Yeah the lack of wind in that storm was very bizarre. We had much more wind 2/26

What has me concern about wind potential...and im talking imby in holmdel/edison those 3 storms in febuary the wind field look impressive and it never verfiyed.....2-10 was a lock for heavy winds it seem....we had a blizzard warnning issued...and it seemed nothing ever happened

[Snowshack]

That's odd uptin just updated and is now calling for 8-12 only. I don't disagree just strange that they'd lower it a bit

For where? My zone still says 10-16"

[goldstar]

Is there a reason we are even bothering with the models at this point besides trying to get an idea where the heaviest bands will fall? Aren't the actual observations now more important than any model disco? Should this low come north and stall under long island, and bomb to 980 or lower, doesn't most everyone cash in?

If storms for the last 20 years are indicative of this storm, by that I mean the miller A's since that is what this is, than we shouldn't be snookered by the models at this point, we should look at the nowcast and realize that the potential exists to see 12"+ from Richmond to Maine, up to 200 miles west from the coast.

Failure to even acknowledge that threat has caused most of the people I know to say they think we will get 1-3 inches in Delaware County, Bucks County and Lehigh county. WHile there is some possibility of bust, and the naysayers being right, for the life of me I can't understand how the local stations have said 2-4 as their forecast for Bucks lehigh etc, when even the NWS say 6-10 right now and they could up that once the deformation band sets up.

Maybe I am being a weenie, but 2-4 inches is a far cry from 6+ or 12+ and tomorrow is the second or third busiest shopping day in the year for returns etc.

This could really become a big SNAFU, and quickly!

I am still stunned by the way the whole storm was handled.

[Allsnow]

hr 24 phl-nyc be crushed by the ccb.... so far .50 for the citys and .75 along the coast

[Porsche]

GFS going to miss the MA through 12. S NE the place to be, and E NJ.

So it's looking ok and then it's a miss. I'm confused

[Bluescat1]

NJNYPAWeather? No thanks.

I would rather listen to a pro then a bunch of neurotic weenies.

[NJwinter23]

Yeah the lack of wind in that storm was very bizarre. We had much more wind 2/26

The 2/9-10 storm still confuses me to this day why we didnt get the wind..Though I'm sure there is an easy explanation...and I think the winds were muchhhh better near bwi and s jersey due to the nnw/CAA combined with the snow where the 500low moved over. We had enough tree branches snap off in New Brunswick without the wind in that storm

[gkrangers]

GFS is virtually identical at 24 hours to the 18z at 30 hours.

[Allsnow]

through hr 27 preciep looks exactly like the 00z nam.......prob would match istoherms maps pretty good..

Sorry jake for the hr by hr...

[tornadojay]

Nothing to worry about folks. Nothing has changed. Were in good shape. It's inside the benchmark

[NortheastPAWx]

Pretty much a wash between 0z and 18z...low may have ticked a few miles west.

[mattinpa]

GFS still looks fine at hr. 24 for SE PA on east..that CCB is a good one.

[WeatherFox]

Nothing to worry about folks. Nothing has changed. Were in good shape. It's inside the benchmark

Let's shoot to break the record for a single snowstorm that was set on Feb. 11-12, 2006, when 26.9 inches fell at Central Park, New York City.

[dryslotted]

GFS still looks fine at hr. 24 for SE PA on east..that CCB is a good one.

Indeed. Blammo...

[IsentropicLift]

I think were talking semantics now....but I will admit I'm happy to see the GFS stay put. Over an inch QPF is about a hundred times more than any of us could have dreamed for 48hrs ago so lets take our blessings and not be greedy.

[NorthNJwx]

The 2/9-10 storm still confuses me to this day why we didnt get the wind..Though I'm sure there is an easy explanation...and I think the winds were muchhhh better near bwi and s jersey due to the nnw/CAA combined with the snow where the 500low moved over. We had enough tree branches snap off in New Brunswick without the wind in that storm

I think that's the key...the wind direction. The DC-Baltimore-Philly corridor got on the west side of the low with a westerly component to the wind and CAA.

Here, we have that type of scenario setting up with this storm. The peak winds are modeled as being either N or NNW from NYC on west. LI and east will have an easterly component in all likelihood, but, being on the coast, tend to do well anyway.

[SmokeEater]

The GFS is fine, I suggest who doesn't know what they're talking about, leave the model discussion for people who do. And stop cluttering up the thread.

[snowman21]

Is there a reason we are even bothering with the models at this point besides trying to get an idea where the heaviest bands will fall? Aren't the actual observations now more important than any model disco? Should this low come north and stall under long island, and bomb to 980 or lower, doesn't most everyone cash in?

If storms for the last 20 years are indicative of this storm, by that I mean the miller A's since that is what this is, than we shouldn't be snookered by the models at this point, we should look at the nowcast and realize that the potential exists to see 12"+ from Richmond to Maine, up to 200 miles west from the coast.

Failure to even acknowledge that threat has caused most of the people I know to say they think we will get 1-3 inches in Delaware County, Bucks County and Lehigh county. WHile there is some possibility of bust, and the naysayers being right, for the life of me I can't understand how the local stations have said 2-4 as their forecast for Bucks lehigh etc, when even the NWS say 6-10 right now and they could up that once the deformation band sets up.

Maybe I am being a weenie, but 2-4 inches is a far cry from 6+ or 12+ and tomorrow is the second or third busiest shopping day in the year for returns etc.

This could really become a big SNAFU, and quickly!

I am still stunned by the way the whole storm was handled.

Really? How so?

[tornadojay]

These runs are like gut checks now. Just don't want to see any huge surprises