BxEngine Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I posted something similar yesterday, I believe. With no inversion in the way with some of those winds, things could get really nasty really quick.... Strongest winds would be mostly overnight too, correct? Definitely a nasty scenario setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Too bad the RSM is an awful model, I'd be thrilled otherwise. Dude - it has support from the SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 what the heck is this- what is central pressure down to???? Also, how is there relatively NO PRECIP falling anywhere with a sub 970 MB low??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Dude - it has support from the SREF Well, the RSM is part of the SREFs. So technically what we are seeing is 5 members of the SREF (I believe the RSM has 5, 1 being its OP and 4 ENS; can a met confirm?). In any event, the RSM is not a good model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Too bad the RSM is an awful model, I'd be thrilled otherwise. I was just about to ask how good or bad it was. I love the qpf it puts out farther west into PA, but, in all honesty, it must not be used much as I've never really seen it before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 what the heck is this- what is central pressure down to???? Also, how is there relatively NO PRECIP falling anywhere with a sub 970 MB low??? I counted the contours as best I could...962mb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 what the heck is this- what is central pressure down to???? Also, how is there relatively NO PRECIP falling anywhere with a sub 970 MB low??? Maybe it's because it's already rotting at that point? It's already dumped a crapload of precip plus it 's the RSM lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I cant believe this man I like cant accept that image right there...Its the March storm wind gusts with heavy snow instead...I just cant fathom it happening lol I just loaded the 15Z SREFs (the latest available by BUFKIT) for KEWR... Almost none of the ensemble members show an inversion below 900hPa, and the mean has 70kt winds at 940hPa (and nearly 80kts at 925hPa!). That can't be good. Even at the surface, the mean was 35kts sustained with almost 50kts at 975hPa. This is at 5AM on Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 RGEM continues to be the most east. Out to 24 and only grazing NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Too bad the RSM is an awful model, I'd be thrilled otherwise. yet you wring your hands over the NAM, which has been God awful with this and many a storm. Just relax. Trust in the Mets who are telling you to look at the SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 what the heck is this- what is central pressure down to???? Also, how is there relatively NO PRECIP falling anywhere with a sub 970 MB low??? It's vertically stacked and occluding, meaning the major lifting stops near the low. The 2/25/10 storm did the same thing over us. Even though we had a low 970s low right near us, the snow stopped on the 26th because the low became stacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I just loaded the 15Z SREFs (the latest available by BUFKIT) for KEWR... Almost none of the ensemble members show an inversion below 900hPa, and the mean has 70kt winds at 940hPa (and nearly 80kts at 925hPa!). That can't be good. Even at the surface, the mean was 35kts sustained with almost 50kts at 975hPa. This is at 5AM on Monday morning. That's amazing if that's at EWR...if the 0z data holds like that I expect Mt.Holly to upgrade coastal NJ to a blizzard warning and perhaps the next set of counties inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 RGEM continues to be the most east. Out to 24 and only grazing NJ. Did the initialization look realistic compared to current obs? I know its not as simple as that, just curious... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Well, the RSM is part of the SREFs. So technically what we are seeing is 5 members of the SREF (I believe the RSM has 5, 1 being its OP and 4 ENS; can a met confirm?). In any event, the RSM is not a good model. yes there are 5 RSM members in the SREF out of 21 total (RSN 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I counted the contours as best I could...962mb? i calculated 966...close enough....SICK STUFF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 It's vertically stacked and occluding, meaning the major lifting stops near the low. The 2/25/10 storm did the same thing over us. Even though we had a low 970s low right near us, the snow stopped on the 26th because the low became stacked. What were the winds like though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthNJwx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I'm amazed at the model output right now. This has the potential to be a true blizzard for exposed areas. We saw extreme winds mix down to the surface on 3/13 and the models are hammering at those kinds of wind speeds again. Snowfall intensity alone should bring visibilities down below 1/4 mile at times, and blowing snow can do the rest of the work. I really don't think there is a recent precedent for this. We've had our share of historic snowstorms over the past decade, and some serious windstorms (3/13/10 especially) as well. But in the same storm? If what is being modeled ends up verifying, this will be the first of its kind in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 RGEM continues to be the most east. Out to 24 and only grazing NJ. as compared to 12Z in the same time frame the SLP is centered essentially in the same spot...the precip shield is just not as vast and now comparing 0Z at 36 vs 12Z at 48 the SLP's take the EXACT same track...they go very little distance is 12 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I don't know what to make of the RGEM, I typically have only used it for PTYPES inside 24 hours in the past Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lisnow66 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I'm amazed at the model output right now. This has the potential to be a true blizzard for exposed areas. We saw extreme winds mix down to the surface on 3/13 and the models are hammering at those kinds of wind speeds again. Snowfall intensity alone should bring visibilities down below 1/4 mile at times, and blowing snow can do the rest of the work. I really don't think there is a recent precedent for this. We've had our share of historic snowstorms over the past decade, and some serious windstorms (3/13/10 especially) as well. But in the same storm? If what is being modeled ends up verifying, this will be the first of its kind in years. Can anyone let me know start time for nassau county and when the real heavy stuff is coming in? Reminds me of Jan 96 when the storm came in around noon on Sunday. Deja vu perhaps minus the arctic air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Here's my call on this event... Steep gradient just to the NW of a mega deformation band which is likely to develop from SNJ northeastward through CNJ, NYC and western/central LI. I expect slightly less totals on the east end of LI due to dry slot potential from H7 low directly over that area. Basically a moderate event from the DE River westward. Major event of 12"+ from about I-95 eastward. That 12-18"+ band is the hardest to figure out - could be a little west of where I have it, that's my worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 What were the winds like though? By me they were crazy late the night of the 25th into the 26th with 3"/hour snow easy. I have to think at least 40 mph gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdog127 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 almost equiv to a Cat 3 hurricane! i calculated 966...close enough....SICK STUFF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 26, 2010 Author Share Posted December 26, 2010 I don't know what to make of the RGEM, I typically have only used it for PTYPES inside 24 hours in the past Despite what stormguy says, I wouldn't trust anything it says. I don't know why people post it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 i wouldn't rule out a track like the RSM, very close to the coast/ hugging the coast maybe 30 miles off. The h5 low is gonna deepen hardcore tomorrow afternoon and really no one can predict how it will move north of Delaware imo. I really hope it doesn't get too close to the coast because that will bring the dryslot/ eye closer to the coast and the mega band more NW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Looks like it was derived from a good blend of the models. Good map... Here's my call on this event... Steep gradient just to the NW of a mega deformation band which is likely to develop from SNJ northeastward through CNJ, NYC and western/central LI. I expect slightly less totals on the east end of LI due to dry slot potential from H7 low directly over that area. Basically a moderate event from the DE River westward. Major event of 12"+ from about I-95 eastward. That 12-18"+ band is the hardest to figure out - could be a little west of where I have it, that's my worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Blizzard warnings up for NYC and Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I don't know what to make of the RGEM, I typically have only used it for PTYPES inside 24 hours in the past Seems to tbe the extreme (outlier). Im going with a blend of nam/gfs this close in. and Euro from12z was about that compromise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Is it possible we'll see this again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Looks like it was derived from a good blend of the models. Good map... Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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