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NYC/PHL Dec 26-27 Potential - Part 7

am19psu

By am19psu,
in New York City Metro

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BxEngine

BxEngine

Posted
Posted
  On 12/26/2010 at 2:46 AM, LocoAko said:

I posted something similar yesterday, I believe. With no inversion in the way with some of those winds, things could get really nasty really quick....

Strongest winds would be mostly overnight too, correct? Definitely a nasty scenario setting up.

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Voyager

Voyager

Posted
Posted
  On 12/26/2010 at 2:56 AM, PSUHazletonWx said:

Too bad the RSM is an awful model, I'd be thrilled otherwise.

I was just about to ask how good or bad it was. I love the qpf it puts out farther west into PA, but, in all honesty, it must not be used much as I've never really seen it before.

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Sundog

Sundog

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Posted
  On 12/26/2010 at 2:59 AM, ace0927 said:

what the heck is this- what is central pressure down to???? Also, how is there relatively NO PRECIP falling anywhere with a sub 970 MB low???f33.gif

Maybe it's because it's already rotting at that point? It's already dumped a crapload of precip plus it 's the RSM lol.

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LocoAko

LocoAko

Posted
Posted
  On 12/26/2010 at 2:51 AM, NJwinter23 said:

I cant believe this man I like cant accept that image right there...Its the March storm wind gusts with heavy snow instead...I just cant fathom it happening lol

I just loaded the 15Z SREFs (the latest available by BUFKIT) for KEWR... Almost none of the ensemble members show an inversion below 900hPa, and the mean has 70kt winds at 940hPa (and nearly 80kts at 925hPa!). That can't be good. Even at the surface, the mean was 35kts sustained with almost 50kts at 975hPa. This is at 5AM on Monday morning.

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
  On 12/26/2010 at 2:59 AM, ace0927 said:

what the heck is this- what is central pressure down to???? Also, how is there relatively NO PRECIP falling anywhere with a sub 970 MB low???f33.gif

It's vertically stacked and occluding, meaning the major lifting stops near the low. The 2/25/10 storm did the same thing over us. Even though we had a low 970s low right near us, the snow stopped on the 26th because the low became stacked.

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Zir0b

Zir0b

Posted
Posted
  On 12/26/2010 at 3:03 AM, LocoAko said:

I just loaded the 15Z SREFs (the latest available by BUFKIT) for KEWR... Almost none of the ensemble members show an inversion below 900hPa, and the mean has 70kt winds at 940hPa (and nearly 80kts at 925hPa!). That can't be good. Even at the surface, the mean was 35kts sustained with almost 50kts at 975hPa. This is at 5AM on Monday morning.

That's amazing if that's at EWR...if the 0z data holds like that I expect Mt.Holly to upgrade coastal NJ to a blizzard warning and perhaps the next set of counties inland.

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Noreaster07

Noreaster07

Posted
Posted
  On 12/26/2010 at 3:01 AM, PSUHazletonWx said:

Well, the RSM is part of the SREFs. So technically what we are seeing is 5 members of the SREF (I believe the RSM has 5, 1 being its OP and 4 ENS; can a met confirm?).

In any event, the RSM is not a good model.

yes there are 5 RSM members in the SREF out of 21 total (RSN 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5)

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NorthNJwx

NorthNJwx

Posted
Posted

I'm amazed at the model output right now. This has the potential to be a true blizzard for exposed areas. We saw extreme winds mix down to the surface on 3/13 and the models are hammering at those kinds of wind speeds again. Snowfall intensity alone should bring visibilities down below 1/4 mile at times, and blowing snow can do the rest of the work.

I really don't think there is a recent precedent for this. We've had our share of historic snowstorms over the past decade, and some serious windstorms (3/13/10 especially) as well. But in the same storm? If what is being modeled ends up verifying, this will be the first of its kind in years.

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ace0927

ace0927

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Posted
  On 12/26/2010 at 3:04 AM, SACRUS said:

RGEM continues to be the most east. Out to 24 and only grazing NJ.

as compared to 12Z in the same time frame the SLP is centered essentially in the same spot...the precip shield is just not as vast

and now comparing 0Z at 36 vs 12Z at 48 the SLP's take the EXACT same track...they go very little distance is 12 hours

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lisnow66

lisnow66

Posted
Posted
  On 12/26/2010 at 3:09 AM, NorthNJwx said:

I'm amazed at the model output right now. This has the potential to be a true blizzard for exposed areas. We saw extreme winds mix down to the surface on 3/13 and the models are hammering at those kinds of wind speeds again. Snowfall intensity alone should bring visibilities down below 1/4 mile at times, and blowing snow can do the rest of the work.

I really don't think there is a recent precedent for this. We've had our share of historic snowstorms over the past decade, and some serious windstorms (3/13/10 especially) as well. But in the same storm? If what is being modeled ends up verifying, this will be the first of its kind in years.

Can anyone let me know start time for nassau county and when the real heavy stuff is coming in? Reminds me of Jan 96 when the storm came in around noon on Sunday. Deja vu perhaps minus the arctic air?

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

Here's my call on this event...

Steep gradient just to the NW of a mega deformation band which is likely to develop from SNJ northeastward through CNJ, NYC and western/central LI. I expect slightly less totals on the east end of LI due to dry slot potential from H7 low directly over that area. Basically a moderate event from the DE River westward. Major event of 12"+ from about I-95 eastward. That 12-18"+ band is the hardest to figure out - could be a little west of where I have it, that's my worry.

vy5y00.png

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BL03

BL03

Posted
Posted

i wouldn't rule out a track like the RSM, very close to the coast/ hugging the coast maybe 30 miles off. The h5 low is gonna deepen hardcore tomorrow afternoon and really no one can predict how it will move north of Delaware imo. I really hope it doesn't get too close to the coast because that will bring the dryslot/ eye closer to the coast and the mega band more NW!

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dryslotted

dryslotted

Posted
Posted

Looks like it was derived from a good blend of the models. Good map...

  On 12/26/2010 at 3:13 AM, Isotherm said:

Here's my call on this event...

Steep gradient just to the NW of a mega deformation band which is likely to develop from SNJ northeastward through CNJ, NYC and western/central LI. I expect slightly less totals on the east end of LI due to dry slot potential from H7 low directly over that area. Basically a moderate event from the DE River westward. Major event of 12"+ from about I-95 eastward. That 12-18"+ band is the hardest to figure out - could be a little west of where I have it, that's my worry.

vy5y00.png

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SACRUS

SACRUS

Posted
Posted
  On 12/26/2010 at 3:13 AM, SnowGoose69 said:

I don't know what to make of the RGEM, I typically have only used it for PTYPES inside 24 hours in the past

Seems to tbe the extreme (outlier). Im going with a blend of nam/gfs this close in. and Euro from12z was about that compromise.

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