Zir0b Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 FYI: The SREF performs better than the NAM/GFS/Euro at the 1" threshold in the short-term Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 26, 2010 Author Share Posted December 26, 2010 OSU2 is spot on. I prefer the SREFs here more than any deterministic model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Way too much panic going on here, which is to be expected. New 21Z SREF holds which I love to use in this range (Winter Or Otherwise). ERIC However..since the 21 Z SREFS do not use 00z DATA and 00z DATA now has RECON DATA involved...according to theGREATDR...would this not make those 21 Z SREFS more invalid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSU2 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 More or less correct, this is the final run I look at for this storm, I probably won't even check the 06Z or 12Z runs other than maybe to see what they try and show for the 12Z-20Z period Monday...I often come on here during big events and see bickering in some of the regional threads about what the models are showing and I'm thinking "People are still looking at them?!" The only time I can remember making big changes last second was March 2001 (Was A Young Met At The Time). That 0Z ETA Run was shocking which led to other guidance shifting. Was the beginning of the end. ERIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 26, 2010 Author Share Posted December 26, 2010 I guess I can probably say my forecast now. Before the 18zs came out, I was out to clients with 6-12" west of Philly, 10-16" for Philly eastward, with an 18-24" band setting up "somewhere." 18zs did nothing to change my forecast, nor does the 0z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSU2 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 However..since the 21 Z SREFS do not use 00z DATA and 00z DATA now has RECON DATA involved...according to theGREATDR...would this not make those 21 Z SREFS more invalid? I have heard that for years. Don't really believe that as we are almost at game time, it does not really matter. The SREF is pretty solid inside of 24 hours. I use it often as guidance, much of the year. ERIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Rarely have I seen a noreastern match the model output perfectly inside 24 hrs. The 00z NAM is actually a good bit better than it's 12z counterpart. The CCB will setup anywhere from eastern jersey NYC LI or 25 - 30 mi either east or west of what this given run is depicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxClimate Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 The 00Z NAM qpf is well within the uncertainty range of the 21Z SREF ... it might as well just be another ensemble member Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 26, 2010 Author Share Posted December 26, 2010 I have heard that for years. Don't really believe that as we are almost at game time, it does not really matter. The SREF is pretty solid inside of 24 hours. I use it often as guidance, much of the year. ERIC IF there is a global model shift, then I think the sondes probably played a role, If not, then it's a NAM burp. Look, I can't be wrong either way But, I'd say that's close to the truth. P.S. You should post here more often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Looks like NYC still gets 1.5-1.75" on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Looks like NYC still gets 1.5-1.75" on the NAM. Still looks good for about 13 inches average in the 5 boroughs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I'm a weather newb, but I've been following such message boards during extreme weather conditions since circa 2005 (on the Eastern forum under a different alias) and have picked up the odd bit of knowledge a long the way. With that being said, this is the first time I've used such terminology, so it's a big moment for me haha: The NAM, from the posts I've been skimming over the past several days seems to be the worst with this system. If the GFS shifts likewise in an hour, then I think the freakout would be warranted a bit more. Thankfully, I don't see that happening. Continue your great work, and I look forward to picking up on more tidbits of information as the days, months, and years progress, and I'll do my part by kicking up a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 glenn's at nbc 10 in phl seems very agressive for 10-20 going off the 0 z nam. 18 nam was much better overall, but at this point just need to watch and wait link to Glenn's latest video pure win for the delaware valley... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I know this model doesn't get much play but I found it helpfull in last years 2 big storms, this was its 12z run today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneschwartz Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 link to Glenn's latest video pure win for the delaware valley... Can't tell you how many times we've underestimated snow in N&W suburbs with Nor'easters. The elevation issue with the strong ocean flow often allows for more lift. Plus we get better snow ratios in the colder air N&W. This has worked for me several times in recent years...let's see if it holds true here as well. Glenn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 This is a very dynamic system. I can't say for sure the track is going to be exactly here or there at this point. I really don't care. That is why you forecast a range for accumulations to take into account possible shifts, etc. Loving the 500mb setup. This is a big event for many. Don't get hung up on minor adjustments. ERIC It's a great setup...some folks will probably get shafted, especially 40-50 miles of the big cities where the gradient may become a factor but for many this is a great event. Folks need to get a grip considering that 48 hours ago this was a non-event or at best a scrape at the immediate coast. Even if you don't get "big" snow and get several inches this storm is an epic win considering where we were. I guess I can probably say my forecast now. Before the 18zs came out, I was out to clients with 6-12" west of Philly, 10-16" for Philly eastward, with an 18-24" band setting up "somewhere." 18zs did nothing to change my forecast, nor does the 0z NAM. Very reasonable forecast. I'm at 10-15" in Philly, 20" along the Jersey Shore from LBI on north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I guess I can probably say my forecast now. Before the 18zs came out, I was out to clients with 6-12" west of Philly, 10-16" for Philly eastward, with an 18-24" band setting up "somewhere." 18zs did nothing to change my forecast, nor does the 0z NAM. Sounds right on target to me after studying eastern PA all day. Maybe some under 6" totals once you head west of Rt 422 and Rt 100. Not sure how far "west" your western Philly locales are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Can't tell you how many times we've underestimated snow in N&W suburbs with Nor'easters. The elevation issue with the strong ocean flow often allows for more lift. Plus we get better snow ratios in the colder air N&W. This has worked for me several times in recent years...let's see if it holds true here as well. Glenn Either way, great coverage today...you've blown away ABC and CBS in my opinion. Enjoy the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Are they? As someone pointed out earlier, for places and people well within the heaviest area of qpf, it probably doesn't matter. For those of us farther west where we are riding the fence so as it is with regard to the tight gradient, any move to the east has BIG implications. As I said earlier today, there is definitely going to be a "heartbreak" zone just west of where the heavy NW fringe band sets up (there's almost always a max on the NW fringe of the heavy snow/deformation area). There isn't much if any overrunning or large moisture swath like you would see in last winter's storms or during a Nino. The snow is about entirely dynamically driven, so it will likely go from very little to crippling in a short 50-75 mile distance. It's impossible to tell right now where that will be as it's about time for nowcasting, but there will almost certainly be a swath in eastern PA and maybe down towards DC that gets majorly jipped. It's just the nature of storms like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 This was the 33hr 18z gfs sounding on bufkit for kJFK valid at 11PM tomorrow...I dont know how seriously we can take that, but it shows winds gusting to 59kt at the surface with 70kt gusts possible that could mix down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 This was the 33hr 18z gfs sounding on bufkit for kJFK valid at 11PM tomorrow...I dont know how seriously we can take that, but it shows winds gusting to 59kt at the surface with 70kt gusts possible that could mix down. I posted something similar yesterday, I believe. With no inversion in the way with some of those winds, things could get really nasty really quick.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 This was the 33hr 18z gfs sounding on bufkit for kJFK valid at 11PM tomorrow...I dont know how seriously we can take that, but it shows winds gusting to 59kt at the surface with 70kt gusts possible that could mix down. Yeah, it starts to get scary for your area and on NE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Can't tell you how many times we've underestimated snow in N&W suburbs with Nor'easters. The elevation issue with the strong ocean flow often allows for more lift. Plus we get better snow ratios in the colder air N&W. This has worked for me several times in recent years...let's see if it holds true here as well. Glenn Glenn, What info did you rely upon to make this new forecast for greater snow amounts. Also, you're doing a great job. I've been telling everybody to turn NBC10 on as you're the only one working it hard it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 This was the 33hr 18z gfs sounding on bufkit for kJFK valid at 11PM tomorrow...I dont know how seriously we can take that, but it shows winds gusting to 59kt at the surface with 70kt gusts possible that could mix down. That's just incredible and if true, it's the kind of situation that can shut us down for days. I wonder how high the drifting can get tomorrow, 6-9 feet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Yeah, it starts to get scary for your area and on NE... That would pretty much be a complete and utter whiteout if anything like that came to pass. You can probably barely see your hand in front of you in conditions like that. God help people who have to travel late tomorrow around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 new 21z RSM blockbuster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I posted something similar yesterday, I believe. With no inversion in the way with some of those winds, things could get really nasty really quick.... I cant believe this man I like cant accept that image right there...Its the March storm wind gusts with heavy snow instead...I just cant fathom it happening lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Either way, great coverage today...you've blown away ABC and CBS in my opinion. Enjoy the storm. Glenn's been great in laying out detail with this storm. I'm very pleased to see a balanced approach and being honest with viewers about the forecast subject to change on Friday night, not resorting to saying that one scenario or another was likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 new 21z RSM blockbuster Too bad the RSM is an awful model, I'd be thrilled otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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