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NYC/PHL Dec 26-27 Potential - Part 7


am19psu

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Wow....

KISP 252336Z 2600/2624 35003KT P6SM OVC070

FM261200 04008KT 6SM -SN OVC015

FM261400 04012G18KT 3SM -SN SCT006 OVC010

FM261800 03018G27KT 1SM -SN BR BKN006 OVC010

FM261900 03025G35KT 1/2SM SN FZFG VV004

FM262100 02032G45KT 1/4SM +SN BLSN FZFG VV003 WS015/02060KT

I'm guessing there will be a few airport closures later tomorrow night with TAFs like that.

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SW Nassau really does seem to get less snow in many events, even JFK...you'll also notice that the thundersnow in many of the bigger events tends to miss these areas and setup more over LGA/EWR/NYC for whatever reason...I know in the 96 blizzard that only 15-18 inches generally fell in that region.

Last 12/19 really nailed us for several hours, and although we didn't get quite as much as central Suffolk, we definitely had more than Manhattan. 1/22/05 was a huge slam here, and last 2/25 was a pleasant surprise since I measured about a foot here at my house when we were only projected to get a few inches tops the day before. JFK had 28 inches from the PDII storm as well. We don't get as much as places like Brookhaven and Upton, but we've definitely had our share of big time snows. I really like our position for tomorrow actually. The only way I really see us getting screwed is if that megaband starts up over NJ and leaves us relatively high and dry. I might actually like it a touch SE of where the GFS/NAM have it currently.

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I'm guessing there will be a few airport closures later tomorrow night with TAFs like that.

The metro airports in NYC handle the snow well, minus LGA which closes more frequently...I expect its likely one of the big three closes at some point for snow removal early Monday AM or late Sunday evening.

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I'm so happy much of the storm will be during the day when you can really see it! Night snow is great too and all but it's hard to see its full impact then.

I was hoping for that as well, however it appears that the real fun stuff to watch will be after dark. The height of this storm in my opinion will probably be 8 PM-2 AM in the metro area.

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I'm so happy much of the storm will be during the day when you can really see it! Night snow is great too and all but it's hard to see its full impact then.

one of my best friends sons Bar Mitzvah party is tomorrow afternoon at 5PM...he is, as DT would put it, FOOKED.

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Just wow... For JFK from the Nam, thundersnow at around 7pm tomorrow

21 12/26 15Z 31 29 28 14 0.03 0.00 532 541 -8.4 -21.1 1010 100 -SN 000OVC260 0.3 0.7

24 12/26 18Z 31 30 34 21 0.09 0.00 536 540 -6.1 -21.0 1004 100 -SN 000OVC184 0.9 0.6

27 12/26 21Z 31 30 17 22 0.26 0.00 535 535 -5.6 -20.7 999 100 SN OVC186 2.6 0.2

30 12/27 00Z 30 28 7 30 0.42 0.02 535 531 -7.4 -21.5 993 100 TSSN 000OVC223 4.2 0.3

33 12/27 03Z 29 27 357 30 0.31 0.00 533 524 -9.4 -22.1 988 100 SN 002OVC160 3.1 0.4

36 12/27 06Z 27 25 331 27 0.32 0.00 531 518 -10.0 -23.7 983 100 SN 001OVC191 3.2 0.3

39 12/27 09Z 27 25 319 26 0.22 0.00 530 515 -9.9 -25.3 982 100 -SN 001OVC157 2.2 0.7

42 12/27 12Z 26 24 311 25 0.08 0.00 527 515 -9.8 -27.0 984 100 -SN 001OVC180 0.8 1.1

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About 50 mph. The quick knots to mph estimate at lower speeds is take the knots divide it by ten and add it to the knots. So 45kt roughly equal to 4.5 + 45 mph.

I know I'm splitting hairs here, but it actually converts to 52mph according to this site:

http://www.militaryfactory.com/conversioncalculators/speed_knots_to_miles_per_hour.asp

Looking at the 18z NAM, it appears that much of the area should see sustained winds of ~25kts+, even well inland. It even shows eastern Long Island having sustained winds of 40-50kts around 10 or 11pm tomorrow night!

I haven't been this pumped for a storm in a while. Merry Christmas everyone and I wish us all the best of luck tomorrow!

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I know I'm splitting hairs here, but it actually converts to 52mph according to this site:

http://www.militaryf...es_per_hour.asp

Looking at the 18z NAM, it appears that much of the area should see sustained winds of ~25kts+, even well inland. It even shows eastern Long Island having sustained winds of 40-50kts around 10 or 11pm tomorrow night!

I haven't been this pumped for a storm in a while. Merry Christmas everyone and I wish us all the best of luck tomorrow!

Yeah the correct conversion rate is 1kt = 1.15077945mph or something like that. For less than hurricane force winds however I like estimating it using the quick and dirty kts plus one-tenth method since you can do it easily without a calculator.

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Light snow is already creeping up into southern NJ; any concerns that this starts quite a bit earlier than expected?

It takes some time to decipher what it will do....remember that snow made it into SNJ at 1am during the 12/2009 event and did not get to NYC til 1-2pm the next afternoon....we're well more saturated this time around in the mid and lower levels at 31/15 30/17...so it will certainly make it easier for thing to get going earlier.

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