Kicking Up A Storm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 That purple is so close to Philly and its N+W Suburbs. Come on son, jog a little bit more to the west! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Glenn is HONKING!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I know that this has been said before, but what continues to defy me, is that it is now highly probable, and almost guaranteed that we will get a MLLER A type storm of this magnitude in a MOD/STRONG LA NINA.. It has not been done, ever, has it? The circumstances around this event alone will be one for the history books.. With this level of immense blocking that we have had in place over this last few weeks, it proves that ENSO cannot defy storms like this from developing if the conditions are ripe. I for one, am stoked, and in complete awe of this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Looking at that radar blossoming over TN/KY makes me wonder if that is the deformation band forming, if so I like the trajectory for that band for big snow west. This storm looks very potent already with current obs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 So, who's stoked? The UVV's and frontogenic forcing being modeled are extremely impressive. Somebody is going to get absolutely buried. This will be our first real shot at a legit blizzard in a while. A 980's or lower mb low deepening rapidly just off the coast. Many memories coming up in the next two days. I haven't been this excited in a very long time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Looking at that radar blossoming over TN/KY makes me wonder if that is the deformation band forming, if so I like the trajectory for that band for big snow west. This storm looks very potent already with current obs! yea your right this storm is starting to get its act together and quick i wouldne be surprised to see this storm overperform even as forecasted now. i think 20+ inches on long island is going to be a pretty safe bet if that deformation band sets up over us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I haven't been this excited in a very long time! Dude, are you in Rockville Center? Looking forward to the SW nassau talk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Dude, are you in Rockville Center? Looking forward to the SW nassau talk Yes, I am, crazyapples! And it's Centre Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Glenn is HONKING!!! Whoa. Talk about a call. Strong Nina with a full blown -NAO block and -AO can cause this. I can't believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I know that this has been said before, but what continues to defy me, is that it is now highly probable, and almost guaranteed that we will get a MLLER A type storm of this magnitude in a MOD/STRONG LA NINA.. It has not been done, ever, has it? The circumstances around this event alone will be one for the history books.. With this level of immense blocking that we have had in place over this last few weeks, it proves that ENSO cannot defy storms like this from developing if the conditions are ripe. I for one, am stoked, and in complete awe of this situation. according to popular ideology the world has been around for millions of years....we have 100 years of sampling of which 7 have been strong Nina's.....im sre it had been done before, many many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 im really having a hard time controlling my emotions... lol The WV looks absolutely epic ....look at the gom being tapped open!!!!! HISTORIC look for sure... http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_central_full+/24h/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 im really having a hard time controlling my emotions... lol The WV looks absolutely epic ....look at the gom being tapped open!!!!! HISTORIC look for sure... http://www.atmos.was...tral_full+/24h/ nice depection of a phase. look at all the energy dropping down the back side of the trough..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 according to popular ideology the world has been around for millions of years....we have 100 years of sampling of which 7 have been strong Nina's.....im sre it had been done before, many many times. +1 Our understanding of what has and has never happened is limited to a nanoscopic slice of evolutionary time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 according to popular ideology the world has been around for millions of years....we have 100 years of sampling of which 7 have been strong Nina's.....im sre it had been done before, many many times. LOL, when you put it like that, then yeah, I am sure it has been done before..You get my point though, but relatively speaking, the odds are very much stacked against it based on the data that we have, and the fact that we have this storm to look forward to, is pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Hey guys.. just to let you know... LWX moved up the start of the WSW for some of our counties to start at 10 PM TONIGHT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 baroclinic instability put it better than I could on twitter: "The phase is complete, the Gulf of Mexico is in play, it is lights out East Coast. A true Miller A classic Noreaster." Get ready dudes. It has been a very long time since I have been this excited about a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 according to popular ideology the world has been around for millions of years....we have 100 years of sampling of which 7 have been strong Nina's.....im sre it had been done before, many many times. Exactly.....if we could go back in time we might find that there were bigger and more numerous storms in Nina years. Those claiming that they have it nailed because of a certain ENSO state are simply not thinking like a scientist, or they have another agenda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 baroclinic instability put it better than I could on twitter: "The phase is complete, the Gulf of Mexico is in play, it is lights out East Coast. A true Miller A classic Noreaster." Get ready dudes. It has been a very long time since I have been this excited about a snowstorm. Indeed. Enjoy guys! May the snow gods bless all of you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 What was the "anticipated " qpf for the failed 3.5.01 storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 520 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2010 VALID 00Z SUN DEC 26 2010 - 00Z WED DEC 29 2010 DAYS 1-3... ...SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST... MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON A CYCLONE TRACK FOR A LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT AND RAPIDLY INTENSITY SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/LONG ISLAND/NEW ENGLAND COAST. EVERY OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTION RESULTS IN A HEAVY SNOW FORECAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST...WITH PROBABILITIES INCREASING FOR AN AXIS OF 1-2 FEET OF SNOW TO OCCUR. THE METRO AREAS FROM NEW YORK TO BOSTON AND PORTLAND MAINE HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF HEAVY SNOW/HEAVIEST FORECAST ACCUMULATIONS...AND THE HIGHEST RESULTANT IMPACT. WASHINGTON DC AND PHILADELPHIA INTO INTERIOR NY/VT/NH ARE IN A TIGHT QPF GRADIENT WHERE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS IN THE CYCLONE TRACK AND RESULTANT PLACEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AXIS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE ACCUMULATIONS. A WELL DEFINED AXIS OF 850-500 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND DEFORMATION AXIS SUPPORTS THE SNOW RAPIDLY INCREASING WITHIN A BAND WITHIN AN AREA OF STRONG 700 MB THETA-E ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY INTO NEW YORK/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING UP INTO MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PERIOD OF MOST RAPID DEEPENING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FAVORS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OF INTENSE 1-2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES IN NY/LONG ISLAND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH PEAK FRONTOGENESIS SHOWN IN THE 18Z NAM/GFS ACROSS LONG ISLAND TO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS PERIOD. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A CHANGE OVER FROM SNOW TO RAIN OVER CAPE COD MA AND THE ISLANDS...KEEPING POTENTIALS NOW AMOUNTS LOWER THERE. THIS IS ALSO THE CASE FOR EASTERN NC...WITH THE 850 MB LOW TRACK ONSHORE OVERNIGHT TO 12Z SUN SUGGESTING THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OCCURS ONCE THE LOW PASSES IN FAR EASTERN NC/COASTAL SOUNDS...WITH SUSTAINED SNOW FURTHER NORTH IN CENTRAL NC AND SOUTHEAST VA ABOUT A DEGREE TO THE LEFT OF THE 850 MB LOW TRACK. THE MANUAL GRAPHICS USED A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/00-12Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN/12Z CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM/12Z UKMET QPFS AND THERMAL PROFILES FOR THE SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE EASTERN US. THE 12Z GFS HAD THE HIGHEST TOTAL PRECIPITATION DUE TO BOTH MORE RAPID DEEPENING THAN OTHER SOLUTIONS AND A SLIGHTLY SLOWER/FURTHER WEST LOW TRACK. THE 12Z GEFS MEAN AND 18Z GFS ARE MUCH LOWER THAN THE OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS QPF ACROSS NJ...AND IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE DOMINANT MODEL/09-15Z SREF MEAN CLUSTER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 baroclinic instability put it better than I could on twitter: "The phase is complete, the Gulf of Mexico is in play, it is lights out East Coast. A true Miller A classic Noreaster." Get ready dudes. It has been a very long time since I have been this excited about a snowstorm. That guy was right on the money throughout this entire event! And I am absolutely ready. That WV loop is absolutely staggering and beautiful. It's amazing how well you can see everything taking place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yes, I am, crazyapples! And it's Centre Im worried though that the best banding will set up 20 miles west of us. The low gets too close for comfort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I know that this has been said before, but what continues to defy me, is that it is now highly probable, and almost guaranteed that we will get a MLLER A type storm of this magnitude in a MOD/STRONG LA NINA.. It has not been done, ever, has it? The circumstances around this event alone will be one for the history books.. With this level of immense blocking that we have had in place over this last few weeks, it proves that ENSO cannot defy storms like this from developing if the conditions are ripe. I for one, am stoked, and in complete awe of this situation. Yeah this storm is definitely going down in the history books for many reasons. Obviously its sheer intensity and very heavy snow amounts alone are looking like they will be historic, and combine that with the fact that this is in a moderate/strong La Nina as well as the amazing shift in the models so late in the game, and you have yourself quite a memorable and unprecedented storm. Take Philly, for instance: it's only had one 10+ inch storm in a moderate/strong La Nina, and it was all the way back in 1909! This is going to be so much fun to track over the next two days; I can't wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Im worried though that the best banding will set up 20 miles west of us. The low gets too close for comfort. Lynbrook here, your neighbor, I'm worried too ala 2006 that we'll get half of what the boros get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Exactly.....if we could go back in time we might find that there were bigger and more numerous storms in Nina years. Those claiming that they have it nailed because of a certain ENSO state are simply not thinking like a scientist, or they have another agenda. Very true, I am sure.. I guess, my point was that these types of set-ups are a rarity at the best of times, and to get a storm like this, when the 'statistics' were against it, makes it all the more special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 baroclinic instability put it better than I could on twitter: "The phase is complete, the Gulf of Mexico is in play, it is lights out East Coast. A true Miller A classic Noreaster." Get ready dudes. It has been a very long time since I have been this excited about a snowstorm. Goose and I were talking about this potential when it first appeared on the GFS at like hr 192....But Baroclinic nailed this sucker the other day....kudo's to him (and you).... just have a feeling someone in the viewing area will pop in with 24-30". (i just know it wont be in SW Nassua Cty, its the snow hole of LI)..BUT the majority will be in 12-18" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Lynbrook here, your neighbor, I'm worried too ala 2006 that we'll get half of what the boros get sweet- we'll start a LI thread for obs...I'm up in Woodmere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 LOL, when you put it like that, then yeah, I am sure it has been done before..You get my point though, but relatively speaking, the odds are very much stacked against it based on the data that we have, and the fact that we have this storm to look forward to, is pretty cool. if you want to discuss modern times, then yes, it hasnt ever happened. Maybe the jets do have a chance to win the SB.....but i digress... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Goose and I were talking about this potential when it first appeared on the GFS at like hr 192....But Baroclinic nailed this sucker the other day....kudo's to him (and you).... just have a feeling someone in the viewing area will pop in with 24-30". (i just know it wont be in SW Nassua Cty, its the snow hole of LI)..BUT the majority will be in 12-18" range. Maybe, just maybe SW Nassau county will make up for al lthose missed moments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Maybe, just maybe SW Nassau county will make up for al lthose missed moments. SW Nassau really does seem to get less snow in many events, even JFK...you'll also notice that the thundersnow in many of the bigger events tends to miss these areas and setup more over LGA/EWR/NYC for whatever reason...I know in the 96 blizzard that only 15-18 inches generally fell in that region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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