jrodd321 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 18z Ensembles looking very epicc! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poleshiftnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 When the winds are as strong as forecasted, ratios drop because the flakes get blown apart by the wind. I think we probably manage over 10:1, but ratios like 15:1 are going to be hard to come by if we really see 40+ mph wind. Yes the wind has a roll but at -8 you have tremendous cristal growth you will see at the min between 12-1 to 15-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Gut Voch! Euro caved last night at the 00z run. Hah Gut Voch to you too! Amazing, so wow, how are people treating the Euro now? hah. I guess we should give it credit for showing a consistent bomb for 6 model runs in the middle of last week. It's a shame though that it lost it earlier and had to follow the GFS's lead. I guess this storm will teach us all that you can't really trust a model until 1-2 days before the event itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 When the winds are as strong as forecasted, ratios drop because the flakes get blown apart by the wind. I think we probably manage over 10:1, but ratios like 15:1 are going to be hard to come by if we really see 40+ mph wind. I tend to agree. And to forecast anything much above 12:1 is never a good idea for the coast with coastal storms, especially when there is not a pre existing arctic airmass in place nor a strong high to the north. I have little worry of mixing...but i also have little doubt our ratios will be pegged near 11:1 for most of the event. That said, we never really know for sure till it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 18z Ensembles looking very epicc! Leave it to the 18z GFS to be south and east of reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This starting around noon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYStorm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Can anyone give me their best latest estimate of a stop time, and when they think HPN would be open for inbound flights (clearly, I'm out of town and trying to decide whether to reschedule my flight Monday afternoon). Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This starting around noon? Around there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This starting around noon? GFS says maybe before noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Hah Gut Voch to you too! Amazing, so wow, how are people treating the Euro now? hah. I guess we should give it credit for showing a consistent bomb for 6 model runs in the middle of last week. It's a shame though that it lost it earlier and had to follow the GFS's lead. I guess this storm will teach us all that you can't really trust a model until 1-2 days before the event itself. It probably keyed on to what the other models did 1 model run earlier, it seems to pick up these small changes first. Unfortunately it was also the last to cave. The euro is still a great model but these last 2 storms show that we need to be careful with how much weight we put on one model. For a while it was GGEM/UKIE/EURO vs GFS and the GFS scored a coup. But credit has to be given to the euro for sniffing this threat out over a wk in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Can anyone give me their best latest estimate of a stop time, and when they think HPN would be open for inbound flights (clearly, I'm out of town and trying to decide whether to reschedule my flight Monday afternoon). Thanks in advance. Precip should be outta here by mid aftn monday and definitely by monday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Thanks guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 When the winds are as strong as forecasted, ratios drop because the flakes get blown apart by the wind. I think we probably manage over 10:1, but ratios like 15:1 are going to be hard to come by if we really see 40+ mph wind. I've never given thought to the impact wind may have on snow density ratios. You learn something every day and it certainly makes sense. Wondering if that may be another equalizer (to some extent) in increasing snowfall totals just inland -- a combination of orographic lift, and higher density ratios not only due to colder temps but also lower wind speeds compared to the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I can't wait for this storm. What an epic turnaround. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Precip should be outta here by mid aftn monday and definitely by monday evening. Depends on which model you believe, the MM5 and GFS show the storm slowing down as it gets near the NJ coast. If that's the case, I can definitely see it snowing into MON PM. Given the upstream blocking and the closing off of the low at H5, a stall isn't out of the question.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Shavua tov. Wife looked at me like I'm nuts when I started dancing like a moron in excitement . I've been skeptical this whole shabbos about this storm based on the past "busts" There's nothing that can describe the joy of ending my Sabbath and pulling up the computer screen to see we are in a Blizzard warning. Just moments ago I had no info except that the GFS on Fri was starting to show a hit and the Euro was still stubbornly showing nothing. Now seeing the position we are at I couldn't help but literally jump for joy. If anyone can please fill me in: when did the Euro cave into the GFS? 0z? What came together in the end to make this all work? Is the energy out of Canada phasing better than forecasted before? Wow, this is just too cool. Can't wait to enjoy a blizzard tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Gut Voch! Euro caved last night at the 00z run. aaah the memories- my Grandfather, may he rest in peace, always said Gut Voch.... Merry Christmas to all.....nice way to end the end year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYStorm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Precip should be outta here by mid aftn monday and definitely by monday evening. Thanks, think I'll probably change my flight to Tuesday afternoon then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Shavua tov. Wife looked at me like I'm nuts when I started dancing like a moron in excitement . I've been skeptical this whole shabbos about this storm based on the past "busts" i am very surprised at the amount of Frumies on this weather board.....Shavuah Tov! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/snow2a/snow2a.pdf Very informative article. Thanks a bunch for the link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Shavua tov. Wife looked at me like I'm nuts when I started dancing like a moron in excitement . I've been skeptical this whole shabbos about this storm based on the past "busts" My wife would have looked at me like I'm nuts when I did my dance too. Luckily she was at her parents house and I was back at my apartment. I did call her though with my excitement and laid out the plan for tomorrow (many walks and expeditions together around our neighborhood, Flushing meadows, some past romantic spots, etc.. ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The anticipation is mounting. 18z GFS QPF Map. Pretty incredible for NYC/NJ/LI and CT. Still a big hit nonetheless for other areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yes the wind has a roll but at -8 you have tremendous cristal growth you will see at the min between 12-1 to 15-1 That's pretty rare for us on the coast. Some areas will approach 32 during the event, so the snow will be wet and will tend to compact. Offsetting this will be the high winds making measurement of liquid equivalent difficult, so we may end up with artificially high ratios in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 So, who's stoked? The UVV's and frontogenic forcing being modeled are extremely impressive. Somebody is going to get absolutely buried. This will be our first real shot at a legit blizzard in a while. A 980's or lower mb low deepening rapidly just off the coast. Many memories coming up in the next two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Depends on which model you believe, the MM5 and GFS show the storm slowing down as it gets near the NJ coast. If that's the case, I can definitely see it snowing into MON PM. Given the upstream blocking and the closing off of the low at H5, a stall isn't out of the question.... The surface low will likely slow significantly or even stall briefly tomorrow night as the system become vertically stacked. But the entire upper level structure remains reasonably progressive, and the SLP will move NE with the upper level low once it becomes stacked. Regardless of the forward speed at that point, most of the lifting mechanisms will have weakened significantly by the time the low fully occludes, so even a full stall would just result in prolonged generally light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 She was pretty clear that I can't do my snow drives anymore so that part of my snow expeditions are canceled . Have a good view from my apt so will try to set up a webcam My wife would have looked at me like I'm nuts when I did my dance too. Luckily she was at her parents house and I was back at my apartment. I did call her though with my excitement and laid out the plan for tomorrow (many walks and expeditions together around our neighborhood, Flushing meadows, some past romantic spots, etc.. ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 So, who's stoked? The UVV's and frontogenic forcing being modeled are extremely impressive. Somebody is going to get absolutely buried. This will be our first real shot at a legit blizzard in a while. A 980's or lower mb low deepening rapidly just off the coast. Many memories coming up in the next two days. Yea, for sure. I'd watch out though for a potential dry slot emerging east of Islip. Best banding should set up- per the consensus of the positioning of the low from yonkers down to Eastern Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm stoked, John... and sorry about my retort earlier, that was petty. Loving the CCB over us tomorrow night... no doubt one of us will hear thunder. Merry Christmas, and here's to both of us getting buried tomorrow night! So, who's stoked? The UVV's and frontogenic forcing being modeled are extremely impressive. Somebody is going to get absolutely buried. This will be our first real shot at a legit blizzard in a while. A 980's or lower mb low deepening rapidly just off the coast. Many memories coming up in the next two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 So, who's stoked? The UVV's and frontogenic forcing being modeled are extremely impressive. Somebody is going to get absolutely buried. This will be our first real shot at a legit blizzard in a while. A 980's or lower mb low deepening rapidly just off the coast. Many memories coming up in the next two days. It'll be interesting to see if blizzard criteria is actually met anywhere. It's pretty tough to verify. We've got about two dozen zones in blizzard warnings along the east coast at the moment, so we'll see what the verification rate ends up being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 So, who's stoked? The UVV's and frontogenic forcing being modeled are extremely impressive. Somebody is going to get absolutely buried. This will be our first real shot at a legit blizzard in a while. A 980's or lower mb low deepening rapidly just off the coast. Many memories coming up in the next two days. If you are this excited, then it's locked and loaded, no? haha.. Just one question- when do you think the snow will end in the nyc/LI area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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