AbsoluteVorticity Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 its a hit i-95 east 0.75 - 1.0 nj north into nyc southwest of there its much less. Wow, yeah i kind of jumped the gun a bit. Only saw the 24 hr maps, seems to close the 500 low and spread precip west quickly after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Someone said RGEM not a hit, that's hysterical are people here to provide bad information! A better way of phrasing it would be, its remarkably close to not being a hit.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Whats going on with phl suburbs seems like each run lowers qpf should i be worried or is it nowcast This seems more like a NYC/Jersey/LI storm...there haven't been too many runs further west, so I think a more Eastern solution is probable. Depending on where you live, however, it might still be a fairly decent event, although not historic in our backyard. Still could be, but I would err right on the side of caution. You can see Glenn's latest map for the local area by clicking here. Whether or not that verifies will be largely up to the dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TomWH Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Not sure if this has been posted Blizzard warnings from NYC and LI to Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 With all due respect, there is more then that for the philly burbs was referring to the 18z rgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Strong winds will reduce those snow ratios...I would not go more than 11-1 or 12-1 for that reason. Long day. Time to celebrate Christmas with family and do this all over again tomorrow! Some late Christmas present from Santa huh? was thinking the same for LI/coast area's. 12:1 is my standard for these storms but i like to include best case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 was thinking the same for LI/coast area's. 12:1 is my standard for these storms but i like to include best case scenario. Nick Gregory always says that, about 12:1 or 13:1 for the coastal regions in these storms, unless you've got sub 20 degree temps, anything from 20-28 or so is usually safe for that range...once you get above 28 you drop back to 10:1 generally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lindywx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 We should be in the 24-28F range during the height of the storm so 12-1 looks good. I would think 18-24 would be the upper range for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 FWIW, our Gulf low is stronger than modeled. Someone said in the 18z thread that 1006mb reports came in from some buoys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 FWIW, our Gulf low is stronger than modeled. Someone said in the 18z thread that 1006mb reports came in from some buoys. Almost always happens this way, whether it translates up the coast or not is the question....early in the season we have the warmer waters and better thermal gradients so its possible this will be stronger than modeled up here, but probably no more than 5-8mb or so....no models had the Christmas 02 storm near what it eventually reached off the Delmarva...as a matter of fact some were running 5-10mb low with it on Christmas eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The trashcan is filled with posts from this thread. I know this is an exciting event so I have been letting more go than usual, but if you post one liners, smileys, maps with no explanations, or negative troll, don't be shocked to be 5 pp'd for this event. Remember, try not to post for the sake of posting, but to add something of substance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poleshiftnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 We should be in the 24-28F range during the height of the storm so 12-1 looks good. I would think 18-24 would be the upper range for this storm. Thats not the temp you want for snow ratios.You want to look at the 850 temp It will be around -8 so more like 15-1 to 20-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Thats not the temp you want for snow ratios.You want to look at the 850 temp It will be around -8 so more like 15-1 to 20-1 That would mean we'd be talking about 30" in some places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 That would mean we'd be talking about 30" in some places. But in the heaviest snow, the ratios will be very close to 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Pretty sure the "latest" UKMET I plotted on that site was only the 12z. How did you see the 18z UKIE, tmagan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 How's the radar coverage in the mountains of western NC? National mosaic looks spotty in places where the past few runs showed light/moderate QPF. Any surface obs? Western precip shield slightly overdone down south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Pretty sure the "latest" UKMET I plotted on that site was only the 12z. How did you see the 18z UKIE, tmagan? By using the Plymouth site, if you choose the UKMET at 00 hr in the drop-down menu it will say 06:00 PM UTC which is the 18Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poleshiftnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 But in the heaviest snow, the ratios will be very close to 10:1. Wrong During the whole storm the 850 temp never goes below -8 so u are looking at those ratios,does not matter how hard its snowing only way you will get 10-1 is if the 850 goes to -1 or -2 other wise get ready for one hell of a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 FWIW, our Gulf low is stronger than modeled. Someone said in the 18z thread that 1006mb reports came in from some buoys. This is going to be an absolute beauty once she gets bombing off the coast. Can't wait to save all those images tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 RGEM is a little drier and further SE. A little surprising. Can't completely discount a further offshore solution. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/592_100.gif http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3294_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 In regards to ratios using the 850 temps is there a chart or formula to use based on those temps to calculate a ratio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Wrong During the whole storm the 850 temp never goes below -8 so u are looking at those ratios,does not matter how hard its snowing only way you will get 10-1 is if the 850 goes to -1 or -2 other wise get ready for one hell of a storm I'm talking about NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poleshiftnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 In regards to ratios using the 850 temps is there a chart or formula to use based on those temps to calculate a ratio? http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/snow2a/snow2a.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Wrong During the whole storm the 850 temp never goes below -8 so u are looking at those ratios,does not matter how hard its snowing only way you will get 10-1 is if the 850 goes to -1 or -2 other wise get ready for one hell of a storm Wrong. Forecasting ratios is an inexact science. You'll know ratios after the event is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 There's nothing that can describe the joy of ending my Sabbath and pulling up the computer screen to see we are in a Blizzard warning. Just moments ago I had no info except that the GFS on Fri was starting to show a hit and the Euro was still stubbornly showing nothing. Now seeing the position we are at I couldn't help but literally jump for joy. If anyone can please fill me in: when did the Euro cave into the GFS? 0z? What came together in the end to make this all work? Is the energy out of Canada phasing better than forecasted before? Wow, this is just too cool. Can't wait to enjoy a blizzard tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 There's nothing that can describe the joy of ending my Sabbath and pulling up the computer screen to see we are in a Blizzard warning. Just moments ago I had no info except that the GFS on Fri was starting to show a hit and the Euro was still stubbornly showing nothing. Now seeing the position we are at I couldn't help but literally jump for joy. If anyone can please fill me in: when did the Euro cave into the GFS? 0z? What came together in the end to make this all work? Is the energy out of Canada phasing better than forecasted before? Wow, this is just too cool. Can't wait to enjoy a blizzard tomorrow! Gut Voch! Euro caved last night at the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poleshiftnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Wrong. Forecasting ratios is an inexact science. You'll know ratios after the event is over. Oh boy Really thats what you think ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Wrong. Forecasting ratios is an inexact science. You'll know ratios after the event is over. When the winds are as strong as forecasted, ratios drop because the flakes get blown apart by the wind. I think we probably manage over 10:1, but ratios like 15:1 are going to be hard to come by if we really see 40+ mph wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GEFS much further west with the heavier precip axis...oy gevalt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Oh boy Really thats what you think ok It's not what I think, it's what I know. Nobody knows for sure a formula for snow ratios. We all generally know, colder means higher ratios. There is no exact math to determine ratios. Models and humans alike have a very hard time accurately predicting ratios. Take your arrogance somewhere else because it won't fly here, especially when you're wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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