Diego Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 From Upton's AFD. SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... WE WILL BE ISSUING BLIZZARD WARNINGS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...FOR THE INTENSE STORM PROGGED TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTATION IS FOR HEAVY SNOW TO DEVELOP EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...AND CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD RANGE FROM 8-12 INCHES NW OF NYC AND 12-16 INCHES MOST ELSEWHERE...WITH HIGHER LOCAL AMOUNTS WHERE BEST MESOSCALE BANDING SETS UP. STILL COULD BE SOME MIXING ISSUES ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST WELL OVER 35 MPH OVER MOST OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING AREA...APPROACHING 50-55 MPH OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM...WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW AND VERY POOR VSBY. MORE DETAILS TO FOLLOW BY ABOUT 4 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Upton's latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm in Montgomery County, PA. Is there any chance this shifts slightly more west for the immediate Philly suburbs to get utterly crushed (ie, 12+ inches)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 just popping in to say rakeage! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Looks like 1.25"+ for Suffolk County. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm in Montgomery County, PA. Is there any chance this shifts slightly more west for the immediate Philly suburbs to get utterly crushed (ie, 12+ inches)? The Winter Storm Warning calls for 8-12" - I imagine it could even be more with good ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ababa Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I think upton is being conservative. Looks like 12"+ is a lock for nyc metro with 14-18" with 30-50 mph winds being likely...the most amazing 24 hr model turnaround in a positive way in my life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Hammer Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NWS going with basically the totals I ran this morning. I'm most likely bumping them up/adjusting them tonight. Tough to give a good estimate on how much banding will occur...never easy! lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I actually am planning on moving on Monday...So, for the first time in my entire life I hope this storm underperforms or never forms go to sleep.. worst post ever you should be banned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I think upton is being conservative. Looks like 12"+ is a lock for nyc metro with 14-18" with 30-50 mph winds being likely...the most amazing 24 hr model turnaround in a positive way in my life Pure coastal storm, with pure strong winds and powdery snow. This could be an historical snow storm when all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I think upton is being conservative. Looks like 12"+ is a lock for nyc metro with 14-18" with 30-50 mph winds being likely...the most amazing 24 hr model turnaround in a positive way in my life Cant remember being on this side of a shift like this. Amazing. Enjoy folks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I think upton is being conservative. Looks like 12"+ is a lock for nyc metro with 14-18" with 30-50 mph winds being likely...the most amazing 24 hr model turnaround in a positive way in my life They always do this... You can't predict more than 12"+ realistically.. They would be doing a disservice.. The bottom line is that they said 12-16" which locally higher amounts.. That seems pretty fair... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 8-12" for PHL per NWS...seems conservative but I'll take it. Surprised we didn't see any blizzard watches posted in addition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Blizzard warnings are up...wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Where Cool?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Rutherford&state=NJ&site=OKX&lat=40.8199&lon=-74.1071 read and enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Why anyone would use the ECMWF at 36 hours for QPF baffles me. Just get the general idea from the Euro, I wouldn't debate semantics with it's QPF at this short range....it is generally off. Track, placement, and deepening of surface low look great and upper levels supports a MECS-HECS still. Actually EC QPF is pretty good in the short term. As good or maybe even slightly better than the GFS. It does have a slight dry bias to counter the GFS's slight wet bias. A blend is likely the best way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Blizzard Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY355 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2010...A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION FROM SUNDAY THROUGHMONDAY AFTERNOON...CTZ007>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-260500-/O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0005.101226T1800Z-101227T1800Z//O.NEW.KOKX.BZ.W.0002.101226T1100Z-101227T2300Z/NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-355 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2010...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM ESTMONDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARDWARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY.THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* LOCATIONS...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...NEW YORK CITY AND ITS IMMEDIATE SUBURBS...LONG ISLAND...AND COASTAL AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT.* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS...WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW AND NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES.* ACCUMULATIONS...11 TO 16 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SNOW BANDS WHOSE EXACT LOCATION IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE. SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN AND SLEET AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT...WHICH COULD HOLD DOWN AMOUNTS THERE...BUT ONLY AFTER SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS HAVE ALREADY TAKEN PLACE.* IMPACTS...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DEVELOPING DUE TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...AND STRONG WINDS CAUSING CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. VISIBILITIES WILL BE NEAR ZERO AT TIMES...WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS EXPECTED. STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO DOWN SOME POWER LINES...TREE LIMBS...AND CHRISTMAS DECORATIONS.* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BEGIN DURING SUNDAY MORNING...THEN BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOWS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.* WINDS....DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS 40 TO 55 MPH...HIGHEST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS AREEXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONGWINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUTCONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IFYOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GETSTRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.&& $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Cant remember being on this side of a shift like this. Amazing. Enjoy folks... seems like a million years ago (but i think it was last sunday) when you said, "4 runs in a row GFS shows big hit." and i said something like, "4 down, 25 to go." what a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneschwartz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Just issued an update for NBCPHILADELPHIA.COM a few minutes ago... The highlights.... Category 5 (crippling) on our Winter Storm Scale that goes from 1 to 5 10-20 inches for much of the Philadelphia area, with 20"+ toward NYC and Long Island Snow 2-3 inches per hour at the peak Sunday evening DURING the Eagles game! (Thunder possible, too) Near-blizzard conditions during the evening and late night And it's in a relatively strong La Nina. WOW! Glenn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Nothing like it on the Island when it happens ! Looking for serious banding over the middle of the Island. Merry Christmas everyone ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 15 SREF members precip... some are insane http://www.meteo.psu...TNE_15z/f87.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Just issued an update for NBCPHILADELPHIA.COM a few minutes ago... The highlights.... Category 5 (crippling) on our Winter Storm Scale that goes from 1 to 5 10-20 inches for much of the Philadelphia area, with 20"+ toward NYC and Long Island Snow 2-3 inches per hour at the peak Sunday evening DURING the Eagles game! (Thunder possible, too) Near-blizzard conditions during the evening and late night And it's in a relatively strong La Nina. WOW! Glenn Just wanted to say that I think it's great that not only have you been warning the public much earlier with your analysis the last few days. It's also very delightful to see you reaching out to the net as well, with the fb/twitter posts. I still think a lot of the public is really unaware of what's about to happen. Also, first post here, but been lurking for awhile. Great place you guys have here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It may be just me, but I do recall every big storm where there were initial calls for ~12 inches, has almost always trended upwards as the event got underway. I wasn't here for 1996, but I remember this being the case for the Presidents Day Storm in 2003, and of course all of last years Snowpocolpyse and Snowmegeddon fun. I'm going to go out on a limb here and say totals will continue to rise even as the event gets underway.....Question is, by how much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Just wanted to wish you guys good luck and enjoy the snowfall! wish I was home to celebrate with you guys(though I should fair well up here ) but man what a turn around in the last 24 hours. when I left thursday, I almost left my car in the street but decided against it just in case the small chance it would hit us. good thing i did.. well enjoy and cheers everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathernut85 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Just issued an update for NBCPHILADELPHIA.COM a few minutes ago... The highlights.... Category 5 (crippling) on our Winter Storm Scale that goes from 1 to 5 10-20 inches for much of the Philadelphia area, with 20"+ toward NYC and Long Island Snow 2-3 inches per hour at the peak Sunday evening DURING the Eagles game! (Thunder possible, too) Near-blizzard conditions during the evening and late night And it's in a relatively strong La Nina. WOW! Glenn I had already resigned myself to not having a decent winter due to the La Nina...this is epic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM22 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Hey Glenn - your doing an amazing job on this one, winning my respect as the best MET in our region....with that said, are you going to be giving any more video updates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 15 SREF members precip... some are insane http://www.meteo.psu...TNE_15z/f87.gif haha wow 2 o them are a complete miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 DT map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This is Dominic from Chicago. I wanna say congrats and hope you all get plastered. Always interested in watching these east coast bombs. Looks like I may see some lake effect snow for potential of several inches tonight/tommorow. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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