tornadojay Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 45 - 2 inch QPF south shore of LI and around perth amboy NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 A nice visualization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 snowgoose called this...it would not be a storm without a ridcouls qpf bomb from the nam GFS shows the same thing. That's what a 973 low inside the benchmark will do With the SREFs/NAM/GFS/GFES all in line now, 12+ is guaranteed for all of NJ, PHL, NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 there are no words... to quote Bing Crosby, "Pretty thing, isn't it." I just got done doing a travel story (yes, its cliche) NOT ONE traveler I spoke with knew of any storm--this was at a gas station just off of I-81 in Moosic. I've talked to quite a number of my friends today and no one knew anything about snow. Very nasty surprise tomorrow for many people.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 woah....NAMs got what looks like 12" in 4hrs from TTN to NYC to LI on Mon AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 posting from sunny ft lauderdale () but it seems I will have to live vicariously through your guys' posts....either way its a funny thing about that 18z NAM qpf bomb. I distinctly remember the one for Jan 2005 which showed 18+ even up to 2 ft (so 2+ in of QPF) that obv didn't verify even though we all did very well. With some of the snowier storms the qpf bomb can be quite nuts like 2.5+ at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 blizzard watches already up in maine and NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 precip just explodes from 1pm - 4pm tomorrow starting in PHL into nj/NYC and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The only downside to this event from my perspective is the worst part occurs at night. I love daytime snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 No need to ruin the fun. But yes, agree entirely. SnowGoose has been hammering that. Take the track and where the dynamics are setting up as more of an indicator. absolutely. i also re-posted a comment from DT noting the euro inside the current time frame tends to underestimate qpf. so we have some solid hope we can blast right past 1" qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 from 1 pm tomorrow to 1 am monday nam_p12_036l.gif WOW 1.25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNJwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The NAM says goodbye Garden State Parkway with the heaviest snows being from exit 88 to the northern most part of Parkway. Don't get me wrong, The rest of the area gets hammered too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickD2011 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 posting from sunny ft lauderdale () but it seems I will have to live vicariously through your guys' posts....either way its a funny thing about that 18z NAM qpf bomb. I distinctly remember the one for Jan 2005 which showed 18+ even up to 2 ft (so 2+ in of QPF) that obv didn't verify even though we all did very well. With some of the snowier storms the qpf bomb can be quite nuts like 2.5+ at times. I feel sorry for you being stuck in Florida during a snowstorm. A weather weenie couldn't enjoy the warm weather when there's a historic storm at home (forget about being a few miles away from the rain/snow line, you're hundreds of miles away from that line). But the average person would be glad to be in Florida during a snowstorm. Last year I was in Tampa during the 12/19 storm. I flew over the entire storm and had quite an adventure getting back to NJ. The whole time I was in Florida I was not enjoying the 70 degree weather in December. I even bought a toy shovel in Florida that I figured I would use to dig my car out at the PHL airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Mother of god, in your saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 15z ETA giving the entire metro 1.50" liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I actually am planning on moving on Monday...So, for the first time in my entire life I hope this storm underperforms or never forms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Mt Holly has warning out now URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 324 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2010 COUNTY SPECIFIC MESSAGE: /O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0006.101226T1200Z-101227T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0007.101226T1200Z-101227T1800Z/ NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD- QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-HUNTERDON-MERCER-SALEM- GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY- BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN... REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON... DENTON...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...FLEMINGTON...TRENTON... PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN... MOUNT HOLLY...WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA... PHILADELPHIA 324 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2010 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * PRECIPITATION TYPE: SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS: EIGHT TO TWELVE INCHES. * TIMING: BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING ENDING BY DAWN MONDAY. THE GREATEST INTENSITY WILL BE NOON SUNDAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT. * IMPACTS: TRAVEL WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS DUE TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ARE EXPECTED WITH GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. * WINDS: NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH EXPECTED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Morris-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Ocean- Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May- Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-Southeastern Burlington- Including The Cities Of, Morristown, Somerville, New Brunswick, Freehold, Sandy Hook, Jackson, Millville, Hammonton, Cape May Court House, Ocean City, Atlantic City, Long Beach Island, Wharton State Forest 324 PM EST Sat Dec 25 2010 , Winter Storm Warning In Effect From 7 AM Sunday To 1 PM Est Monday, The National Weather Service In Mount Holly Has Issued A Winter Storm Warning For Heavy Snow And Blowing Snow, Which Is In Effect From 7 AM Sunday To 1 PM EST Monday. The Winter Storm Watch Is No Longer In Effect. * Precipitation Type: Snow. * Accumulations: Twelve To Eighteen Inches. * Timing: Beginning Sunday Morning Ending By Dawn Monday. The Greatest Intensity Will Be Noon Sunday Until Midnight. * Impacts: Travel Will Become Hazardous Due To Significant Accumulations Of Snow. Blowing And Drifting Snow Are Expected With Greatly Reduced Visibilities At Times. Travel Is Strongly Discouraged. * Winds: Northerly Winds Increasing To 20 To 30 Mph With Gusts Over 40 Mph Expected. Precautionary/Preparedness Actions, A Winter Storm Warning Means Significant Amounts Of Snow, Sleet, And Ice Are Expected Or Occurring. Strong Winds Are Also Possible. This Will Make Travel Very Hazardous Or Impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I haven't used a smiley in so long. The NAM is giving NYC and surrounding areas a guarantee 12" on this run. Where you can measure winds on the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ324 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2010PAZ054-055-060>062-260400-/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0006.101226T1600Z-101227T1800Z//O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0007.101226T1200Z-101227T1800Z/CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON324 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2010...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM ESTMONDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECTFROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOLONGER IN EFFECT.* PRECIPITATION TYPE: SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS: SIX TO TEN INCHES.* TIMING: BEGINNING SUNDAY BY MID-MORNING AND LASTING UNTIL AROUND DAWN MONDAY. THE GREATEST INTENSITY WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.* IMPACTS: TRAVEL WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS DUE TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ARE EXPECTED WITH GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.* WINDS: NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH EXPECTED.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSOPOSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.&&$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 upton raising blizz warnings...new discussion is out and they're going with 12-16 NYC metro and more in mesoscale banding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 New Upton Forecast for Manhattan Sunday: Snow, mainly after 9am. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. High near 34. Breezy, with a north wind 10 to 13 mph increasing to between 19 and 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Sunday Night: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 23. Windy, with a north wind between 23 and 29 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. Monday: Snow likely, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 28. Windy, with a northwest wind between 24 and 28 mph, with gusts as high as 43 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Just look how large this storm is at Hour 60. Incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 OMG new warning out predicts I will get 12-18 inches. This is too good to be true. Only downside, as someone else said, is that the best part of the storm occurs at night. I love daytime snowstorms because you can actually see everything that is happening. The February 10 storm last year was a great daytime storm. It seems like the peak of the big ones often occurs at night in this area for whatever reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 OMG new warning out predicts I will get 12-18 inches. This is too good to be true. Only downside, as someone else said, is that the best part of the storm occurs at night. I love daytime snowstorms because you can actually see everything that is happening. The February 10 storm last year was a great daytime storm. It seems like the peak of the big ones often occurs at night in this area for whatever reason. the snow is going to become heavy as soon as it starts. you will see plenty of heavy snow in daylight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Is Mount Holly considering blizzard warnings for coastal sections? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 whats the chance of thundersnow on long island? It is nearly impossible to forecast thundersnow. I think anyone on long island, NYC metro, NE NJ and SE NY stands a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This might be the best image of all time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It is nearly impossible to forecast thundersnow. I think anyone on long island, NYC metro, NE NJ and SE NY stands a chance. yea i know u cant pinpoint it lol......just looks like the models are showing the possibility of it with the intense banding that is gonna set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 ya if you live in NNJ or the Hudson Valley... Come on show some love with Long Island... What's with you guys always getting these ridiculous Mesobands.. (Central LI did get it on 12/19/09) hehehe Jeff This might be the best image of all time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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