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NYC/PHL Dec 26-27 Potential - Part 7


am19psu

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Beautiful vertically stacked system. Beware though--if you live in coastal NJ, NY, LI, etc, you don't want that H85 low getting even one inch closer. That brings p-type problem, regardless of what that map says. In fact, if the banding doesn't set up and yield dynamic cooling, with the H85 low placement, the immediate coast may already be in trouble.

true but I wouldn't be too worried for the cities. The h5 low is gonna deepen at an almost perfect time for the area imo to pull it towards the coast but also getting it moving NE.. Coastal NJ like AC and E LI may be close/mix in a little and/or dry slot. BUT agree def don't want more of a west pull than 12z gfs/

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They mentioned a possibility of a westward, using the GFS' dry slot off shore to illustrate their point.

If this thing gets that much further westward, that means the trough has sharpened to the point where this starts looking like '93. I think we're good. Also if PHL gets dryslotted, NYC is probably screwed with a capital S.

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I think there needs to be some clear communication to the public on this and soon. A great many may be taken by surprise by this...

The best way to reach the public is to activate the Emergency Alert System to take over all radio and TV stations automatically. There are many people home today listening to Christmas music on the radio all day, unaware there's a blizzard tomorrow because no one's at the station to do a live weather report. This is an emergency after all, they interrupt programming every week just to test it so might as well use it in a real emergency.

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Northeast_Snowfall_Impact_Scale.gif

Repeat, please.

With this system and its dynamics, I wouldn't be shocked at all to see that. Frontogenic forcing will induce a lot of lift and you will see some significant local differences based upon where banding shows up. This is going to be the real deal folks. IF the GFS is right, I wouldn't be surprised to see some obs in the PA/NJ/NY area rival those of 1996--with locations a few miles away being significantly less. Listen for the thunder overnight Sunday.

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The best way to reach the public is to activate the Emergency Alert System to take over all radio and TV stations automatically. There are many people home today listening to Christmas music on the radio all day, unaware there's a blizzard tomorrow because no one's at the station to do a live weather report. This is an emergency after all, they interrupt programming every week just to test it so might as well use it in a real emergency.

Glenn is in the office...

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If this thing gets that much further westward, that means the trough has sharpened to the point where this starts looking like '93. I think we're good. Also if PHL gets dryslotted, NYC is probably screwed with a capital S.

Dont shoot the messenger.. It was only mentioned as a possibility.

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The best way to reach the public is to activate the Emergency Alert System to take over all radio and TV stations automatically. There are many people home today listening to Christmas music on the radio all day, unaware there's a blizzard tomorrow because no one's at the station to do a live weather report. This is an emergency after all, they interrupt programming every week just to test it so might as well use it in a real emergency.

Yes my neighbor thought I was joking with him when I was gassing up the snowblower. he had no idea.

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