tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 greatest to least pinkish purple 1.5-1.75 pink 1.25-1.5 blue 1-1.25 red .75-1 lgt blue ..5-.75 green .25-.5 lgt black 1-.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The models went haywire with that storm though 24 hours out after having the storm for several days. Sort of like this storm, but closer to the event, and in a horribly wrong direction for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 main reason why the euro is lower in totals imho is its weaker than 0z last night. It has the same track maybe a little west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 why would anyone watch CNN for weather info, let alone anything more important like politic or economic....sheeezzz... FYI..looks screwy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The wind will likely cut ratios down. Models now are predicting up to 40+ mph on the coast. I think 12:1 or so is a good bet. The models went haywire with that storm though 24 hours out after having the storm for several days. An example of what happens when phasing happens too late. I remember vividly watching modeling, reading NWS statements (from PHL Friday night, some of the most strongly worded statements I've ever seen from PHL), and listening to Paul Kocin tell us about massive accumulations up and down the Eastern Seaboard. Then with each passing hour, it became obvious that it just wasn't going to make it. Keep in mind--just about EVERY model had the 3/5/01 storm from 6 days out clear up until the Friday before the event. Then, things became complex, and we eventually in NJ got 1/2" of slush and slop. Kinda the inverse of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 why would anyone watch CNN for weather info, let alone anything more important like politic or economic....sheeezzz... Looks like they're running strictly off the 6z GFS plus 100 miles west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 why would anyone watch CNN for weather info, let alone anything more important like politic or economic....sheeezzz... To get that snowfall distribution, you'd need the H85 low to pretty much pass straight over ACY, then hook right over eastern Long Island. Um, no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The Euro had the right idea all along, it showed a hit for several runs after all of the models went OTS although it eventually began to cave as outliers typically do, but the idea was there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Why anyone would use the ECMWF at 36 hours for QPF baffles me. Just get the general idea from the Euro, I wouldn't debate semantics with it's QPF at this short range....it is generally off. Track, placement, and deepening of surface low look great and upper levels supports a MECS-HECS still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I think there needs to be some clear communication to the public on this and soon. A great many may be taken by surprise by this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Tombo, Would you mind drawing up a QPF map for all of CT/MA/RI if you don't mind and post it in the SNE thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Why anyone would use the ECMWF at 36 hours for QPF baffles me. Just get the general idea from the Euro, I wouldn't debate semantics with it's QPF at this short range....it is generally off. Track, placement, and deepening of surface low look great and upper levels supports a MECS-HECS still. Strongly agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I think there needs to be some clear communication to the public on this and soon. A great many may be taken by surprise by this... Especially for those poor bastards going to the game tomorrow night... Go Birds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rok Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 IMO you shouldn't take details from the euro this close to an event, the higher resolution models will be able to give you a better representation on mesoscale features...The thing to take from the euro is it's game on and get ready.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Man 12z GFS has around .5"+ for NYC/C NJ coast from 4-7pm tomorrow... wow! 12z NAM also has this signal but off the coast a little bushing coastal NJ/LI.. most models have the 5h getting deeper around 21z tomorrow (526dm) over VA bringing the exploding precip shield to PHL/NJ/NYC/LI and nam is a little late and se with the heaviest. good stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Especially for those poor bastards going to the game tomorrow night... Go Birds. Seriously, there may be more ticket offers to friends and family than normal. "Look! I got you tickets to tomorrow's Eagles game for Christmas! Have fun!" LOL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Let's have a Long Beach get-together! Beach House anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Beach House anyone? We'll need plywood and some nails lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deano Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 AW vids now mentioning dry slotting ACY & PHL at the height of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Man 12z GFS has around .5"+ for NYC/C NJ coast from 4-7pm tomorrow... wow! 12z NAM also has this signal but off the coast a little bushing coastal NJ/LI.. most models have the 5h getting deeper around 21z tomorrow (526dm) over VA bringing the exploding precip shield to PHL/NJ/NYC/LI and nam is a little late and se with the heaviest. good stuff! Beautiful vertically stacked system. Beware though--if you live in coastal NJ, NY, LI, etc, you don't want that H85 low getting even one inch closer. That brings p-type problem, regardless of what that map says. In fact, if the banding doesn't set up and yield dynamic cooling, with the H85 low placement, the immediate coast may already be in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 AW vids now mentioning dry slotting ACY & PHL at the height of this. They expect the low to track along the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Anybody wanna meet in LBI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Especially for those poor bastards going to the game tomorrow night... Go Birds. Yeah, Howard Eskin just called into WIP. He's working with Hurricane right now at channel 10 and said Hurricane is talking about blizzard-like conditions during the game. I bet this is the first time a lot of people heard about this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 AW vids now mentioning dry slotting ACY & PHL at the height of this. GFS shows dryslot remaining offshore, but that's something you NOWcast for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Anybody wanna meet in LBI? i've been seeing a girl down there. i might have to make a visit, she will be so shocked at how little interest i will have in her while im there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 i've been seeing a girl down there. i might have to make a visit, she will be so shocked at how little interest i will have in her while im there. Snow > girls no homo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 They expect the low to track along the coast? Look at the 12Z GFS posted above. Even the 70% RH remains offshore. To get a dryslot issue, you'd need to wrap dry air into the system, then get it to track close enough to get it onshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 i've been seeing a girl down there. i might have to make a visit, she will be so shocked at how little interest i will have in her while im there. How long does it take to get there? I take it youre not talking about Long Beach, NY, but the Long Beach off the Jersey Coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Snow > girls no homo Girls are a lot easier to come by than a storm like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deano Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 They expect the low to track along the coast? They mentioned a possibility of a westward, using the GFS' dry slot off shore to illustrate their point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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