A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 <br />Looks like 1.25"+ for Suffolk County.<br /><br /><br /><br />Meh, I hope we get that too-- all the other models had us in 1.25-1.75 with 2-2.5 on the jersey shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NYC should expect more than 10" based on Model QPF output. Realistically, could be more, but which model does better in QPF output? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I saw that you said it wasnt stalling-- how long does this storm last on the euro? 24 hours for most? yep...24 the most...prob out of here monday morning..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 So based upon what has been posted, the Euro has the surface low pressure about 125 miles north or where the mm5 has it, for the same time period, but at about the same longitude?? Interesting.... it sounds like its faster-- that is, no stall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Estimated QPF on the 12z Euro: PHL: 1 TTN: 1.05 ACY: 1.25 NYC: 1.1 ABE: .75 AVP: .7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 it sounds like its faster-- that is, no stall. Exactly the same as what the GFS is showing hour by hour.... not sure where people are getting this faster solution from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 yep...24 the most...prob out of here monday morning..... Yeah, Goldberg said sun could be back out by Monday afternoon with lots of blowing and drifting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Booo..... you def get a nice snowfall on the euro 4-8+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 <br /><br /><br /> Meh, I hope we get that too-- all the other models had us in 1.25-1.75 with 2-2.5 on the jersey shore. We're pretty close to the 1.25 line...it's oriented from SSW to NNE, so at our longitude, the 1.25" is just offshore...we'll be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Kaboom http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdd/mddoutput/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Exactly the same as what the GFS is showing hour by hour.... not sure where people are getting this faster solution from? He had it east of CC by hr 54.... the other models didnt get it there until like hr 63 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Estimated QPF on the 12z Euro: AVP: .7 If that verifies (prob. 7-10") I'll be fine with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 We're pretty close to the 1.25 line...it's oriented from SSW to NNE, so at our longitude, the 1.25" is just offshore...we'll be fine. Is the qpf slightly lower because the system is a bit faster on the euro or a bit further east? Or maybe a little weaker? The track sounded the same, so Im guessing its slightly faster, slightly weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 it sounds like its faster-- that is, no stall. I don't have the euro to look at but again, based upon my look at the mm5, the storm never gets to that latitude of CC- instead, it gets to just south of LI and then goes ENE and over the benchmark and departs... SO, i dunno how that will pay out.. of whether the differences will be that big.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Is the qpf slightly lower because the system is a bit faster on the euro or a bit further east? Or maybe a little weaker? The track sounded the same, so Im guessing its slightly faster, slightly weaker. We're actually slightly closer to the 1.25" line this run than we were last run. The runs are very similar for us, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Exactly the same as what the GFS is showing hour by hour.... not sure where people are getting this faster solution from? the gfs stalls the low and crawls it out of here once it gets east of the nj shore...the euro does not do this....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 He had it east of CC by hr 54.... the other models didnt get it there until like hr 63 or so. This is false http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_054l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 the gfs stalls the low and crawls it out of here once it gets east of the nj shore...the euro does not do this....... so basically 6 hours less snow but about the same qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 the gfs stalls the low and crawls it out of here once it gets east of the nj shore...the euro does not do this....... So who's right??? Isn't there major blocking to the Northeast.. Is a slow crawl more probably in this pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This is false http://www.nco.ncep....fs_pcp_054l.gif I was basing it on the 6z gfs which cleared the precip off the east end of LI at hr 69 and I just subtracted 6 hours from that 69-6=63 to account for the 6 hr difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 so basically 6 hours less snow but about the same qpf? not really same qpf bomb.....there is no 1.25+ or 2 inch in jersey......uniform 1.00+ and 1.25 out by you....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 What were the original QPF numbers being thrown at NYC/LI with the 3.05.01 storm? What were the forecasts in inches by the mets back before that storm that never materialized? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 West of the city the GFS was just about done by Monday morning as well. 24 hour event is nothing to sneeze at though. '96 lasted about 30 hours, Feb '03 was also about 24 hours since the snow took forever to get in. Last December was barely an 18 hour event He had it east of CC by hr 54.... the other models didnt get it there until like hr 63 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickD2011 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I want to know start time for this storm in the NYC area. I have never flown out during the beginning of a storm and was wondering if anyone knows how that usually goes. Our flight is at 345 pm from LGA. I love snow but want to get back home to see the parents. Any thoughts? By the way, my parents already have 3 inches in the Ga Mtns. You might be stuck till Tuesday. Try to leave earlier or even today. Last year I flew from PHL-TPA on 12/18, right over the entire storm. There was little turbulence over the storm. I listened to my FM radio during the flight and heard the reports from the ground. I distinctly remember a Raleigh radio station DJ being disappointed that it was all rain there and a Baltimore radio station fearing the worst. There were clouds all the way till we were over Georgia. I was almost planning to drive to Florida that day, good thing I decided to fly over the storm instead of drive through it. Of course I was disappointed to miss the storm since I was in Florida, and I had to sleep in the TPA airport Sunday night and take the Greyhound bus home from DC (where I was connecting) since my DCA-PHL flight was canceled and the bus would get me home faster. I was prepared to take a bus all the way from Tampa if I had to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 What were the original QPF numbers being thrown at NYC/LI with the 3.05.01 storm? What were the forecasts in inches by the mets back before that storm that never materialized? I remember seeing snowfall accumulations of 2-3 feet of snow on T.V with that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I don't have the euro to look at but again, based upon my look at the mm5, the storm never gets to that latitude of CC- instead, it gets to just south of LI and then goes ENE and over the benchmark and departs... SO, i dunno how that will pay out.. of whether the differences will be that big.. GFS track is more classic-- typically for your best snows on Long Island you want the storm to exit south of our latitude to maintain northeast or north winds which keep the snow going for a bit longer. When the storms reach further north you get a downsloping NW wind which dries things out sooner. All our classic storms-- Feb 83, Jan 96, PD2 all exited south of our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I remember seeing snowfall accumulations of 2-3 feet of snow on T.V with that storm. yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 West of the city the GFS was just about done by Monday morning as well. 24 hour event is nothing to sneeze at though. '96 lasted about 30 hours, Feb '03 was also about 24 hours since the snow took forever to get in. Last December was barely an 18 hour event Yeah, I wasnt all that fond of that 12/19/2009 storm basically because the heaviest snows happened while I was sleeping lol. The onset of the snow was delayed too, so it didnt start until late in the afternoon. When I woke up at sunrise, the snow was just about over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The models went haywire with that storm though 24 hours out after having the storm for several days. I remember seeing snowfall accumulations of 2-3 feet of snow on T.V with that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 not really same qpf bomb.....there is no 1.25+ or 2 inch in jersey......uniform 1.00+ and 1.25 out by you....... Oh ok, so the speed of the euro def did have an effect compared to the gfs qpf. It matches the previous euro qpf total though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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