F5TornadoF5 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I hope Tombo isn't off doing something silly like spending time with their family with a blizzard looming and the Euro set to roll!?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm still laughing at Fox29's "dodged a bullet" forecast from last night. Gotta find a YouTube clip of that and post it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 no im here lol...just woke up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 RGEM 48 Hour accumulations Still more falling post 48 lol Tony, that looks like 2.5-3 inches qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 no im here lol...just woke up Merry Xmas Tom Tom! And its about time lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 lol Tony, that looks like 2.5-3 inches qpf Thats in MM's and is about 0.8 - 1.10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 no im here lol...just woke up Thank you so much for your model play by play. Plus, your avatar always puts a smile on my face, even when the news isn't good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cnjraider Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 lol Tony, that looks like 2.5-3 inches qpf Nope, 25 mm = about 1 inch. So for NJ that would be 0.75"-1.0" about... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 lol Tony, that looks like 2.5-3 inches qpf It is in millimeters not inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 no im here lol...just woke up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 alright euro has init Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I want to know start time for this storm in the NYC area. I have never flown out during the beginning of a storm and was wondering if anyone knows how that usually goes. Our flight is at 345 pm from LGA. I love snow but want to get back home to see the parents. Any thoughts? By the way, my parents already have 3 inches in the Ga Mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Whats Balt look like on the clown map? Can't see on iphone Tight gradient--as someone said, 8" line runs through the bay, I'd probably say 4-6"-ish. Last Saturday, the GFS was giving us a White Christmas. What a crazy seven days it has been, but I think it's time to lock it up for some awesome snows!!! How does 10-15" sound for NYC right now based on guidance? I think it sounds maybe a little on the low side. Big Daddy's map "These areas will be shut down by the storm." I highly doubt anyone gets 30" like someone said, I highly doubt someone gets 2', I think the most a few spot might see is 18, maybe 20" but 6-12" is a good estimate area wide for right now. With a dynamic system like this (look @ frontogenesis for evidence of progged developing banding), anything is possible. Hey, when DT says "12+" I'm all in. yup..jma..has my area right smack in the middle of that red bullseye in nj..looks like 1.75 to 2.0 QPF..standard 18-24 inches You won't get 12:1 ratios with this system--I'd think closer to 16:1 or 18:1, BL issues could possibly keep ratios down, but I'm not confident in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 hr 6 has a sub 1012 low 50 miles south of mobile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Milk, Bread, Duct Tape, Gas run tomorrow 6am... already have beer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 hr 12 has a sub 1008 low over the know of the fl panhandle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 from upton.. 12Z NAM GFS AND RGEM MODELS ALL CONTINUE WITHTHE SAME SCENARIO. RAPIDLY DEEPENING INTENSE LOW PRESSURESOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WORKING ITS WAY CLOSE TO BUT SOUTHEAST OFNANTUCKET. INTENSITIES RANGE FROM 965 MB TO 972 MB AT POINT OFCLOSEST APPROACH. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HIGHER THANCURRENTLY FORECAST BUT THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION MAP WILL BEUPDATED WITH THE 4 PM AFTERNOON PACKAGE. WE WILL LIKELY BE GOINGTO EITHER A BLIZZARD WATCH OR WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Here is the 12Z RGEM Snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 hr 18 sub 1004 low about 50 miles east of savannah ga...lgt precip up to dc...lgt to mod up to central va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 hr 18 light snow up to DC....low just off the se coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 from upton.. 12Z NAM GFS AND RGEM MODELS ALL CONTINUE WITHTHE SAME SCENARIO. RAPIDLY DEEPENING INTENSE LOW PRESSURESOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WORKING ITS WAY CLOSE TO BUT SOUTHEAST OFNANTUCKET. INTENSITIES RANGE FROM 965 MB TO 972 MB AT POINT OFCLOSEST APPROACH. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HIGHER THANCURRENTLY FORECAST BUT THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION MAP WILL BEUPDATED WITH THE 4 PM AFTERNOON PACKAGE. WE WILL LIKELY BE GOINGTO EITHER A BLIZZARD WATCH OR WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA exact same thing Taunton said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It is in millimeters not inches. my bad lol.... canadians = metric system duh lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 from upton.. 12Z NAM GFS AND RGEM MODELS ALL CONTINUE WITHTHE SAME SCENARIO. RAPIDLY DEEPENING INTENSE LOW PRESSURESOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WORKING ITS WAY CLOSE TO BUT SOUTHEAST OFNANTUCKET. INTENSITIES RANGE FROM 965 MB TO 972 MB AT POINT OFCLOSEST APPROACH. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HIGHER THANCURRENTLY FORECAST BUT THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION MAP WILL BEUPDATED WITH THE 4 PM AFTERNOON PACKAGE. WE WILL LIKELY BE GOINGTO EITHER A BLIZZARD WATCH OR WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LOCK AND LOADED....... Let the GAMES BEGIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 10-20" is my bet for NYC/LI/CNJ area.. w/ thundersnow - also Blizzard Warning is coming. Have a good afternoon guys- i have to get ready for this..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 hr 24 low just south of hse.....nc getting blitz by heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 hr 24 has a sub 100 low over or just south of cape fear nc...lgt to mod precip coming into delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 LOCK AND LOADED....... Let the GAMES BEGIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 10-20" is my bet for NYC/LI/CNJ area.. w/ thundersnow - also Blizzard Warning is coming. Have a good afternoon guys- i have to get ready for this..... Youre leaving right in the middle of the euro run?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 hr 24 has a sub 100 low over or just south of cape fear nc...lgt to mod precip coming into delmarva looks like gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Tight gradient--as someone said, 8" line runs through the bay, I'd probably say 4-6"-ish. I think it sounds maybe a little on the low side. "These areas will be shut down by the storm." With a dynamic system like this (look @ frontogenesis for evidence of progged developing banding), anything is possible. Hey, when DT says "12+" I'm all in. You won't get 12:1 ratios with this system--I'd think closer to 16:1 or 18:1, BL issues could possibly keep ratios down, but I'm not confident in that. The wind will likely cut ratios down. Models now are predicting up to 40+ mph on the coast. I think 12:1 or so is a good bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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