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NYC/PHL Dec 26-27 Potential - Part 7


am19psu

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I want to know start time for this storm in the NYC area. I have never flown out during the beginning of a storm and was wondering if anyone knows how that usually goes. Our flight is at 345 pm from LGA. I love snow but want to get back home to see the parents. Any thoughts? By the way, my parents already have 3 inches in the Ga Mtns.

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Whats Balt look like on the clown map? Can't see on iphone

Tight gradient--as someone said, 8" line runs through the bay, I'd probably say 4-6"-ish.

Last Saturday, the GFS was giving us a White Christmas. What a crazy seven days it has been, but I think it's time to lock it up for some awesome snows!!!

How does 10-15" sound for NYC right now based on guidance?

I think it sounds maybe a little on the low side.

Big Daddy's map

590x443_12251420_severe1.png

"These areas will be shut down by the storm." :snowman:

I highly doubt anyone gets 30" like someone said, I highly doubt someone gets 2', I think the most a few spot might see is 18, maybe 20" but 6-12" is a good estimate area wide for right now.

With a dynamic system like this (look @ frontogenesis for evidence of progged developing banding), anything is possible. Hey, when DT says "12+" I'm all in.

yup..jma..has my area right smack in the middle of that red bullseye in nj..looks like 1.75 to 2.0 QPF..standard 18-24 inches

You won't get 12:1 ratios with this system--I'd think closer to 16:1 or 18:1, BL issues could possibly keep ratios down, but I'm not confident in that.

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from upton..

12Z NAM GFS AND RGEM MODELS ALL CONTINUE WITHTHE SAME SCENARIO. RAPIDLY DEEPENING INTENSE LOW PRESSURESOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WORKING ITS WAY CLOSE TO BUT SOUTHEAST OFNANTUCKET. INTENSITIES RANGE FROM 965 MB TO 972 MB AT POINT OFCLOSEST APPROACH. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HIGHER THANCURRENTLY FORECAST BUT THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION MAP WILL BEUPDATED WITH THE 4 PM AFTERNOON PACKAGE. WE WILL LIKELY BE GOINGTO EITHER A BLIZZARD WATCH OR WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA

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from upton..

12Z NAM GFS AND RGEM MODELS ALL CONTINUE WITHTHE SAME SCENARIO. RAPIDLY DEEPENING INTENSE LOW PRESSURESOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WORKING ITS WAY CLOSE TO BUT SOUTHEAST OFNANTUCKET. INTENSITIES RANGE FROM 965 MB TO 972 MB AT POINT OFCLOSEST APPROACH. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HIGHER THANCURRENTLY FORECAST BUT THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION MAP WILL BEUPDATED WITH THE 4 PM AFTERNOON PACKAGE. WE WILL LIKELY BE GOINGTO EITHER A BLIZZARD WATCH OR WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA

exact same thing Taunton said

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from upton..

12Z NAM GFS AND RGEM MODELS ALL CONTINUE WITHTHE SAME SCENARIO. RAPIDLY DEEPENING INTENSE LOW PRESSURESOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WORKING ITS WAY CLOSE TO BUT SOUTHEAST OFNANTUCKET. INTENSITIES RANGE FROM 965 MB TO 972 MB AT POINT OFCLOSEST APPROACH. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HIGHER THANCURRENTLY FORECAST BUT THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION MAP WILL BEUPDATED WITH THE 4 PM AFTERNOON PACKAGE. WE WILL LIKELY BE GOINGTO EITHER A BLIZZARD WATCH OR WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA

LOCK AND LOADED....... Let the GAMES BEGIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

10-20" is my bet for NYC/LI/CNJ area.. w/ thundersnow - also Blizzard Warning is coming.

Have a good afternoon guys- i have to get ready for this.....

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LOCK AND LOADED....... Let the GAMES BEGIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

10-20" is my bet for NYC/LI/CNJ area.. w/ thundersnow - also Blizzard Warning is coming.

Have a good afternoon guys- i have to get ready for this.....

Youre leaving right in the middle of the euro run?!

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Tight gradient--as someone said, 8" line runs through the bay, I'd probably say 4-6"-ish.

I think it sounds maybe a little on the low side.

"These areas will be shut down by the storm." :snowman:

With a dynamic system like this (look @ frontogenesis for evidence of progged developing banding), anything is possible. Hey, when DT says "12+" I'm all in.

You won't get 12:1 ratios with this system--I'd think closer to 16:1 or 18:1, BL issues could possibly keep ratios down, but I'm not confident in that.

The wind will likely cut ratios down. Models now are predicting up to 40+ mph on the coast. I think 12:1 or so is a good bet.

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