Stormlover74 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 and way underforecasted as well. I dont think anyone predicted widespread 18-24" amounts (wasn't it 4 to 8 for NYC that morning?) Remember that was El Niño and uber-strong at that. No juicy STJ here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 yeah its one of those things like in 12/30/00 where NW NJ got 25" and just west of the delaware got like 6 (and that was in 12 hours). Orange county and up that way will easily have 15 or 20:1 ratios so less QPF and they still end up with alot more We always have less qpf with coastals but usually still jackpot due to orographic lift & ratios.. Last yr was definitely the exception though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 UKMET UKIE looks great would implye 1 - 1.24" area-wide. GGEM about 0.75 and RGEM a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Hard to say with the tight gradient but I'm venture 8 to 14" Whats Balt look like on the clown map? Can't see on iphone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 MM5 would imply a absolute historic snowfall for the entire New York City Metro Area. Serioulsy shades of January 1996 blizzard on the MM5... Chris, these are truly golden times to be a snow weenie..... I think this was the right decade to be around to witness this lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Last Saturday, the GFS was giving us a White Christmas. What a crazy seven days it has been, but I think it's time to lock it up for some awesome snows!!! How does 10-15" sound for NYC right now based on guidance? conservative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
p626808 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Tauton update.. wonder if mount holly is thinking the same thing? 1220 PM UPDATE... 12Z NAM GFS AND RGEM MODELS ALL CONTINUE WITHTHE SAME SCENARIO. RAPIDLY DEEPENING INTENSE LOW PRESSURESOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WORKING ITS WAY CLOSE TO BUT SOUTHEAST OFNANTUCKET. INTENSITIES RANGE FROM 965 MB TO 972 MB AT POINT OFCLOSEST APPROACH. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HIGHER THANCURRENTLY FORECAST BUT THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION MAP WILL BEUPDATED WITH THE 4 PM AFTERNOON PACKAGE. WE WILL LIKELY BE GOINGTO EITHER A BLIZZARD WATCH OR WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Chris, these are truly golden times to be a snow weenie..... I think this was the right decade to be around to witness this lol. 2010-2020, we got this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I think the clown map needs to get a higher scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 if that low position & intensity verify I would not be shocked to hear reports of 30+ in northern Passiac county into Orange county.. why not middlesex county nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Whats Balt look like on the clown map? Can't see on iphone verbatim it's 7" the 8" line runs thru the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Big Daddy's map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Mt Holly shifted WSW westward LV this is for you. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/phi/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Wow that actually Jackpots NW NJ and west Central NJ but in reality we all do well some just a little better then others. Will the final result be that. Probably not but we all get the idea a big snow coming for just about all of us. How long of a storm is this on the MM5? It was a 30 hr storm on the GFS and it was over on that model by hour 69-- the MM5 has it going through 84 hours and more...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Good lord..... http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_48HR.gif enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euripides Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Supermarkets open at 6am tomorrow morning. Wonder if it will have a Black Friday feel to it as I am sure other people will be doing the same Then the race is on to the milk and bread isle when the doors open. Getting milk for the little guy. Snacks for mommy and daddy. Daddy will be watching the forums and radar....then outside when it starts. F***ing can't wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 At 4pm Monday- the storm has jetted to about 100 miles east of the Benchmark- Is it precipitating at all on the coast anymore?? I can't figure out how to tell at the MM5 site! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I highly doubt anyone gets 30" like someone said, I highly doubt someone gets 2', I think the most a few spot might see is 18, maybe 20" but 6-12" is a good estimate area wide for right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Good lord..... http://grib2.com/jma...THKPRP_48HR.gif enjoy Now we have a new western outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Dear God. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 conservative I guess, but if anything, I can always raise it up. Maybe 12-15?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Good lord..... http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_48HR.gif enjoy With the positioning of that bullseye, we ought use as this subforum's icon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 At 4pm Monday- the storm has jetted to about 100 miles east of the Benchmark- Is it precipitating at all on the coast anymore?? I can't figure out how to tell at the MM5 site! MM5 is outside of it's 36hr usable range. It's worse than the NAM or RGEM after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 why not middlesex county nj Elevation tends to enhance snowfall there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Just woke up and ready to bring this one home! Merry Xmas everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I guess, but if anything, I can always raise it up. Maybe 12-15?" Let's just go with 10-20 inches and keep both ends of the range covered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Man I would be EXTREMELY happy back here with 6" and wind. Of course I hope the GFS is right though and it's closer to 10"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm still laughing at Fox29's "dodged a bullet" forecast from last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Dear God. yup..jma..has my area right smack in the middle of that red bullseye in nj..looks like 1.75 to 2.0 QPF..standard 18-24 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 RGEM 48 Hour accumulations Still more falling post 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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