am19psu Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Holy crap, did I pick a bad time to be offline for 18 hours. Agree with everyone else that this is looking like a major I-95 hit. Ensemble guidance is robust for this event. Happy holidays and good luck everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 DT's call is out on FB: http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=155827797797820&set=a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Wow, the 12z NAM is STARTING to come around! My biggest fear is a dry-slot, to be honest (in western LI) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I posted as well in the 12z model disco that the SREF ensembles are bullish on blizzard conditions. I know the word hasn't been tossed around much yet, but it certainly looks possible. LG on ABC7 said 40mph winds are expected tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 In Part 6 some folks expressed concern re p-type. I think the low will be bombing out so fast that the boundary layer flow will responding more to rapid pressure falls than the pressure gradient, and be cross-isobaric/more off colder land. BUT...if the low it tucks too far inside the benchmark, that flow could quickly turn east, warming up boundary layer temps across Suffolk County and SE CT enough to give rain...or you could have too much 700-800 mb warming and get sleet. Latest NAM looks all snow, but may have to keep the above options on the table per latest GFS/SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I wish there was a discussion to go along with it.. Wondering why there is a loop of 6-8" in E PA like that. Likely because of downslope. He likely figures central PAdoes better due to NW wind upslope and backlash/lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Wow, the 12z NAM is STARTING to come around! My biggest fear is a dry-slot, to be honest (in western LI) Its a distinct possibility as always when the low tracks close....you usually want to look to see how many of the models if any you find your location situated between the 700mb low and surface low, thats generally the location that dryslots...the 12Z NAM indicates that to be near SE CT and maybe the extreme eastern tip of LI at 42 hours...even though its precip field would not actually tell you thats where it is...often you cannot tell by looking at the precip field since it covers a 6 hour time period.....FYI, its been proven SE CT is one of the most dryslot prone places in the entire lower 48 in regards to low pressure systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I too would be concerned across Suffolk county on Long Island. I've lived through many a snowstorm in December at Islip, and a track that close to the coast (potentially) in December is asking for trouble. For those folks, I hope it stays all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I posted as well in the 12z model disco that the SREF ensembles are bullish on blizzard conditions. I know the word hasn't been tossed around much yet, but it certainly looks possible. LG on ABC7 said 40mph winds are expected tomorrow night Blizzards are too hard to verify. The real difficulty is the visibility criteria. The wind criteria is pretty easy to reach on the coast, but keeping the visibility at or below 1/4 mile for three straight hours is not so easy. An hour or two sure, but then you get that random 3/4 mi off-hour observation when the precip lets up just a tiny bit that blows it. If I were the NWS I'd never issue a blizzard warning (for this storm anyway) and just bust in the one or two zones you could actually verify the warning. It's not like the public would know the difference in the technicalities anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Wow, the 12z NAM is STARTING to come around! My biggest fear is a dry-slot, to be honest (in western LI) Unless the very wrapped up solutions verify, I think we should be okay. Eastern Suffolk might be a different story though. Our best solution is likely a GFS/Nam compromise on this. Probably 15" or more if the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Hey guys merry xmass......i would never think i would see the day the gfs took down the others.....and the euro a mess.......guess we should consider it a gift...whats the starting time and ending on this...if someone can help me out...trying to stratigiez my plowing operation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I posted as well in the 12z model disco that the SREF ensembles are bullish on blizzard conditions. I know the word hasn't been tossed around much yet, but it certainly looks possible. LG on ABC7 said 40mph winds are expected tomorrow night i am pretty sure parts of the okx cwa will be under blizzard warnings... the wind signal is definitely there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 i am pretty sure parts of the okx cwa will be under blizzard warnings... the wind signal is definitely there These have had a tendency to not verify in the past but this one would appear to have a very good chance...of course the PD II event blizzard warning fell flat on its face due to the weak SLP despite the 1045 high up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Hey guys merry xmass......i would never think i would see the day the gfs took down the others.....and the euro a mess.......guess we should consider it a gift...whats the starting time and ending on this...if someone can help me out...trying to stratigiez my plowing operation Looking like light snow late Sunday morning with the heaviest falling Sunday night/Early Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 we are not live with news again until 11pm, however one of our mets is making an emergency updated forecast for our website which should be out within the hour...Ive already taken a phone call from a "concerned viewer" hearing rumors of a snowstorm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ paying for XMas presents Steve D had start time of noonish for So Jersey so probably 2-3 in C Jersey. Heaviest after 7 PM. Wouldnt be surprised if it was all basically over by daybreak Monday as these snowstorms tend to wrap up then for some reason. Looks like another one of those hellish overnight storms with very little sleep. Hard to get winks during Sunday while its snowing outside and might be one of those work, nap work deals yeah it looks like its going to really ramp up at night......also with strong winds.......i get to try out the xv i bought so im pretty excited.....nam seems to moving in this pretty quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 i have to say long island would be under a blizzard warning with this strong high wind signal a strong low pressure like that sub 970 is def gonna produce very gusty winds. thinking by tonight or tommorow morning blizzard would be posted for the coastal areas, what do u think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 For NYC and points north and east, i think it may snow well into monday morning... this storm is moving very slowly from 3AM on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 we are not live with news again until 11pm, however one of our mets is making an emergency updated forecast for our website which should be out within the hour...Ive already taken a phone call from a "concerned viewer" hearing rumors of a snowstorm... what did you tell said concerned caller Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 i have to say long island would be under a blizzard warning with this strong high wind signal a strong low pressure like that sub 970 is def gonna produce very gusty winds. thinking by tonight or tommorow morning blizzard would be posted for the coastal areas, what do u think? The problem is that they seem to be treating this like a regular snowstorm - forecasting 6-9" roughly - see newsday... They aren't buying these 12-18" totals yet, so until they do, perhaps later this PM, I don't see them putting blizzard warnings out.. I hope i am wrong.. I see this as possibly a top 10 storm for LI... you just don't see storms that track this way around these parts that produce average 6-9" events.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The problem is that they seem to be treating this like a regular snowstorm - forecasting 6-9" roughly - see newsday... They aren't buying these 12-18" totals yet, so until they do, perhaps later this PM, I don't see them putting blizzard warnings out.. I hope i am wrong.. I see this as possibly a top 10 storm for LI... you just don't see storms that track this way around these parts that produce average 6-9" events.. yea im thinking average snowfall totals on the island of a foot with more from western to eastern suffolk. the winds are gona really ramp up sunday afternoon and into monday gusts i think arent out of the question to reach 55 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry Christmas Everyone! Wow, I stopped looking Thursday 12z....what a pleasant lil' christmas surprise! Anyone want to predict the time this hits Newark? My flight is set to leave at 9:00 AM.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM22 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Serious Question, so plz dont delete - How much can we expect in the way of wind back here in the philly area? obviously not as bad as the coast, based on current progs, enough for blizz criteria? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The problem is that they seem to be treating this like a regular snowstorm - forecasting 6-9" roughly - see newsday... They aren't buying these 12-18" totals yet, so until they do, perhaps later this PM, I don't see them putting blizzard warnings out.. I hope i am wrong.. I see this as possibly a top 10 storm for LI... you just don't see storms that track this way around these parts that produce average 6-9" events.. Most of the major snow events were playing catchup late the day before on the amounts.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 21 inches of snow for JFK on the Nam http://www.meteor.ia...am/nam_kjfk.dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 No need at this point to put blizzard watches out and scare everyone. Most of the general public has no idea what the difference is between a blizzard warning and winter storm warning is anyway. Last years event which brought the blizzard warnings started off as all WSW except on LI. I thought the WSW came out 6 hours later than it should have, especially from the Jersey shore on northeast. Many people woke up this morning and since its Christmas won't turn on the TV until afternoon at best. This storm might be best spread by people traveling in their cars and hearing it come over the radio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Serious Question, so plz dont delete - How much can we expect in the way of wind back here in the philly area? obviously not as bad as the coast, based on current progs, enough for blizz criteria? Not in the Philadelphia burbs..could gust to 30/35 though in the burbs. Blizzard criteria might be met at the Shore and up in North Jersey...better chances on Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 our met at wnep is going with 2-4 scranton-wilkes, 6 stroudsburgh to lehigh valley, 8-10 jersey, conservative at this point. I told said concerned caller to stay tuned to our website for updates and if your traveling to the shore may the spirit of Christmas be with you tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 21 inches of snow for JFK on the Nam http://www.meteor.ia...am/nam_kjfk.dat something is wrong with the absurd ratios...it gives islip 49 inches!!!! even at 10:1 it gives islip over 20 inches with more than 2 inches liquid equiv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthNJwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 i am pretty sure parts of the okx cwa will be under blizzard warnings... the wind signal is definitely there It seems to be a significantly stronger wind signal than we've seen in any recent snowstorms (including 2/06 and all from last year), at least from a NYC-west standpoint. The visibility requirement would be very difficult to reach out here, but NYC on east definitely has a good shot. I agree and wouldn't be surprised to see blizzard watches/warnings for NYC & east...and for us to the west, blizzard-criteria gusts but just short on the vis req. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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