Kmlwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 STRONGLY AGREE DT, what do you think is a reasonable amount to "up" amounts by then if this is the case? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 STRONGLY AGREE wasnt the NAM and EURO a good blend? since it tends to be wet. but NAM is still a bit E so forecasting amounts will be tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxClimate Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 euro qpf will be generally underdone now that we are in crunch time. STRONGLY AGREE How much is "underdone" in this case? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxClimate Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GFS ensemble mean precip (h24-48) is up over 1.00" for N NJ / NYC / Hudson Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 How much is "underdone" in this case? let Dave answer that.....i just know that in dynamic systems it tends to be quite conservative with qpf within 36hr, somewhere around there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 How much is "underdone" in this case? dont know My view is that the op euro is not very good in the Short range and since 0z Thursday it was always further east than the GGEM or the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 new from NCEP: THE 12Z EUROPEAN IS VERY SIMILAR IN TRACK AND INTENSITY TO THE 00Z RUN AND BY ITSELF COULD BE CONSIDERED A GOOD FORECAST CHOICE. SINCE IT IS NOW RELATIVELY CLOSE TO ALL THE OTHER MODELS ANY COMBINATION WOULD LIKELY GET A PRETTY REASONABLE FORECAST FOR THE STORM. AS THE STORM PASSES OFF SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...THE 12Z RUN IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS VERSION AND SOMEWHAT RESEMBLES THE 12Z UKMET STALLING THE LOW FOR A FULL DAY...IMPLYING SLOWER ENDING TIMES FOR SNOW ACROSS EASTERN CT. WITH THE CONVERGENCE OF ALL 12Z MODELS...MOST COMBINATION OF ANY AND EACH WOULD PROBABLY MAKE FOR A GOOD BLEND ESP THE SNOWIER MODELS FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION. Also note that if this stall occurs further south as the GFS suggests, QPF amts will need to be adjusted accordingly. I particularly like the last part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry Christmas all. GibbsFreeBlizzard with foot long plus weenies for all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 dont know My view is that the op euro is not very good in the Short range and since 0z Thursday it was always further east than the GGEM or the GFS Its qpf beats the gfs and nam even the 1st 24 hrs. I've only showed the conus but the same thing holds in the northeast. The guys at HPC consider it the model to beat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 new from NCEP: THE 12Z EUROPEAN IS VERY SIMILAR IN TRACK AND INTENSITY TO THE 00Z RUN AND BY ITSELF COULD BE CONSIDERED A GOOD FORECAST CHOICE. SINCE IT IS NOW RELATIVELY CLOSE TO ALL THE OTHER MODELS ANY COMBINATION WOULD LIKELY GET A PRETTY REASONABLE FORECAST FOR THE STORM. AS THE STORM PASSES OFF SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...THE 12Z RUN IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS VERSION AND SOMEWHAT RESEMBLES THE 12Z UKMET STALLING THE LOW FOR A FULL DAY...IMPLYING SLOWER ENDING TIMES FOR SNOW ACROSS EASTERN CT. WITH THE CONVERGENCE OF ALL 12Z MODELS...MOST COMBINATION OF ANY AND EACH WOULD PROBABLY MAKE FOR A GOOD BLEND ESP THE SNOWIER MODELS FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION. Also note that if this stall occurs further south as the GFS suggests, QPF amts will need to be adjusted accordingly. I particularly like the last part is that 4real? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Hurricane is afraid the word isn't getting out, WCAU is running crawls and using Facebook and Twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Its qpf beats the gfs and nam even the 1st 24 hrs. I've only showed the conus but the same thing holds in the northeast. The guys at HPC consider it the model to beat. thats a small sample size and also, isnt it the idea that its qpf is underdone in big time systems for the most part? like a 2-4in clipper, it does well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 new from NCEP: THE 12Z EUROPEAN IS VERY SIMILAR IN TRACK AND INTENSITY TO THE 00Z RUN AND BY ITSELF COULD BE CONSIDERED A GOOD FORECAST CHOICE. SINCE IT IS NOW RELATIVELY CLOSE TO ALL THE OTHER MODELS ANY COMBINATION WOULD LIKELY GET A PRETTY REASONABLE FORECAST FOR THE STORM. AS THE STORM PASSES OFF SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...THE 12Z RUN IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS VERSION AND SOMEWHAT RESEMBLES THE 12Z UKMET STALLING THE LOW FOR A FULL DAY...IMPLYING SLOWER ENDING TIMES FOR SNOW ACROSS EASTERN CT. WITH THE CONVERGENCE OF ALL 12Z MODELS...MOST COMBINATION OF ANY AND EACH WOULD PROBABLY MAKE FOR A GOOD BLEND ESP THE SNOWIER MODELS FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION. Also note that if this stall occurs further south as the GFS suggests, QPF amts will need to be adjusted accordingly. I particularly like the last part Check out who wrote the disco... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poleshiftnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 2pm update by JB "UPDATING THIS MORNINGS POST.. SEVERE STORM TO SHUT NORTHEAST CORRIDOR PHL NORTHEAST FOR 12-24 HOURS. STORM FORCE GUSTS DELMARVA TO LONG ISLAND WITH 12-24 INCH AMOUNTS LEADING TO MASSIVE DRIFTS. AS BAD OR WORSE THAN ANY OF THE STORMS LAST YEAR FOR MANY PHL TO BOSTON, SOUTHEAST TO THE COAST. ROGUE CHARACTERISTICS WITH PRESSURE NEAR 28. 70 AT MOUTH OF DEL BAY TOMORROW NIGHT AND NEAR 28.55 BEFORE REACHING NEW ENGLAND." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 thats a small sample size and also, isnt it the idea that its qpf is underdone in big time systems for the most part? like a 2-4in clipper, it does well. Not tue, I don't have the verification but HPC has a much longer time period where the mets verify against the models and the euro is the model to beat for the 0.50 or greater thresholds. for the lighter ones, that's the only verification I've got or seen. It is a misconception tha tht euro is not a good short range model. Part of that perception might be due to the resolution of the output most of us get to see. IN summer with MCCs, it might be a different story but in winter, it is a good short range model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Not tue, I don't have the verification but HPC has a much longer time period where the mets verify against the models and the euro is the model to beat for the 0.50 or greater thresholds. for the lighter ones, that's the only verification I've got or seen. It is a misconception tha tht euro is not a good short range model. Part of that perception might be due to the resolution of the output most of us get to see. IN summer with MCCs, it might be a different story but in winter, it is a good short range model. thanks for the info. makes sense. i stand corrected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Henry says basically what JB says. NJ getting shut down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 2pm update by JB "UPDATING THIS MORNINGS POST.. SEVERE STORM TO SHUT NORTHEAST CORRIDOR PHL NORTHEAST FOR 12-24 HOURS. STORM FORCE GUSTS DELMARVA TO LONG ISLAND WITH 12-24 INCH AMOUNTS LEADING TO MASSIVE DRIFTS. AS BAD OR WORSE THAN ANY OF THE STORMS LAST YEAR FOR MANY PHL TO BOSTON, SOUTHEAST TO THE COAST. ROGUE CHARACTERISTICS WITH PRESSURE NEAR 28. 70 AT MOUTH OF DEL BAY TOMORROW NIGHT AND NEAR 28.55 BEFORE REACHING NEW ENGLAND." lol Rogue Storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 15z sref about the same qpf wise so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 15z sref about the same qpf wise so far shifted heaviest qpf ever so slightly east jackpot right around Chesapeake Bay into Delmarva and Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 SREF's held serve and are very consistent to last run for DCA/BWI area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 is that 4real? Not entirely. It looks like the poster added the part about using the snowier models: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html THE 12Z EUROPEAN IS VERY SIMILAR IN TRACK AND INTENSITY TO THE 00Z RUN AND BY ITSELF COULD BE CONSIDERED A GOOD FORECAST CHOICE. SINCE IT IS NOW RELATIVELY CLOSE TO ALL THE OTHER MODELS ANY COMBINATION WOULD LIKELY GET A PRETTY REASONABLE FORECAST FOR THE STORM. AS THE STORM PASSES OFF SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...THE 12Z RUN IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS VERSION AND SOMEWHAT RESEMBLES THE 12Z UKMET...IMPLYING SLOWER ENDING TIMES FOR SNOW ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THE CONVERGENCE OF ALL 12Z MODELS...MOST COMBINATION OF ANY AND EACH WOULD PROBABLY MAKE FOR A GOOD BLEND. SHORTWAVE APPROACHING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING AND MIDWEST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z GFS IS FASTER THAN ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxClimate Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 shifted heaviest qpf ever so slightly east jackpot right around Chesapeake Bay into Delmarva and Jersey The 1" contour keeps shifting west with each set of SREF runs ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 cant understand why local tv mets say this will taper off mon am. looks to me it will be wrapping up quite nicely mon am and wont push out til monday afternoon/evening. latest SREF says so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxClimate Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 cant understand why local tv mets say this will taper off mon am. looks to me it will be wrapping up quite nicely mon am and wont push out til monday afternoon/evening. latest SREF says so. Nah, I think we'll be done in NYC / Philly by Monday AM .... unless this rumored "stall" happens .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 LOOKS LIKE THE JACKPOT AREAS WITH THIS STORM MAY BE COASTAL JERSEY AND LONG ISLAND INCLUDING THE HEAVY WINDS THAT ARE GONNA EASILY MEET BLIZZARD CRITERIA I THINK. THIS STORM IS GONNA REACH SOME INCREDIBLE STRENGTH AND I WOULDNT BE SURPRISED THAT WHEN THE DEFORMATION BAND DEVELOPS THERS GONNA BE SOME THUNDERSNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 LOOKS LIKE THE JACKPOT AREAS WITH THIS STORM MAY BE COASTAL JERSEY AND LONG ISLAND INCLUDING THE HEAVY WINDS THAT ARE GONNA EASILY MEET BLIZZARD CRITERIA I THINK. THIS STORM IS GONNA REACH SOME INCREDIBLE STRENGTH AND I WOULDNT BE SURPRISED THAT WHEN THE DEFORMATION BAND DEVELOPS THERS GONNA BE SOME THUNDERSNOW. I CANNOT HEAR YOU. PLEASE SPEAK UP. THANKS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJ Amenzo Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The 1" contour keeps shifting west with each set of SREF runs ... As expected in dynamic east coast situations like this. This is clearly the same behavior the data had leading up to Jan 1996 and what was it the Feb 7th event last year? To some extent the Dec 19th blizzard as well. SREF mean spread, for several straight cycles, has indicated SLP and deform zone will continue to drift further SW with each and every run. We'll begin to see more 2"+ QPF max regions begin to pop up more regularly on the suites throughout the day as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I CANNOT HEAR YOU. PLEASE SPEAK UP. THANKS. what do u mean? lol, cap locks are on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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