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12z model discussion


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Guest someguy

How much is "underdone" in this case?

dont know

My view is that the op euro is not very good in the Short range

and since 0z Thursday it was always further east than the GGEM or the GFS

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new from NCEP:

THE 12Z EUROPEAN IS VERY SIMILAR IN TRACK AND INTENSITY TO THE 00Z

RUN AND BY ITSELF COULD BE CONSIDERED A GOOD FORECAST CHOICE.

SINCE IT IS NOW RELATIVELY CLOSE TO ALL THE OTHER MODELS ANY

COMBINATION WOULD LIKELY GET A PRETTY REASONABLE FORECAST FOR THE

STORM. AS THE STORM PASSES OFF SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...THE 12Z RUN

IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS VERSION AND SOMEWHAT RESEMBLES THE 12Z

UKMET STALLING THE LOW FOR A FULL DAY...IMPLYING SLOWER ENDING TIMES

FOR SNOW ACROSS EASTERN CT.

WITH THE CONVERGENCE OF ALL 12Z MODELS...MOST COMBINATION OF ANY

AND EACH WOULD PROBABLY MAKE FOR A GOOD BLEND ESP THE SNOWIER

MODELS FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION.

Also note that if this stall occurs further south as the GFS suggests, QPF amts will need to be adjusted accordingly.

I particularly like the last part :P

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dont know

My view is that the op euro is not very good in the Short range

and since 0z Thursday it was always further east than the GGEM or the GFS

Its qpf beats the gfs and nam even the 1st 24 hrs. I've only showed the conus but the same thing holds in the northeast.

post-70-0-69566900-1293304256.gif

The guys at HPC consider it the model to beat.

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new from NCEP:

THE 12Z EUROPEAN IS VERY SIMILAR IN TRACK AND INTENSITY TO THE 00Z

RUN AND BY ITSELF COULD BE CONSIDERED A GOOD FORECAST CHOICE.

SINCE IT IS NOW RELATIVELY CLOSE TO ALL THE OTHER MODELS ANY

COMBINATION WOULD LIKELY GET A PRETTY REASONABLE FORECAST FOR THE

STORM. AS THE STORM PASSES OFF SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...THE 12Z RUN

IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS VERSION AND SOMEWHAT RESEMBLES THE 12Z

UKMET STALLING THE LOW FOR A FULL DAY...IMPLYING SLOWER ENDING TIMES

FOR SNOW ACROSS EASTERN CT.

WITH THE CONVERGENCE OF ALL 12Z MODELS...MOST COMBINATION OF ANY

AND EACH WOULD PROBABLY MAKE FOR A GOOD BLEND ESP THE SNOWIER

MODELS FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION.

Also note that if this stall occurs further south as the GFS suggests, QPF amts will need to be adjusted accordingly.

I particularly like the last part :P

is that 4real?

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Its qpf beats the gfs and nam even the 1st 24 hrs. I've only showed the conus but the same thing holds in the northeast.

post-70-0-69566900-1293304256.gif

The guys at HPC consider it the model to beat.

thats a small sample size and also, isnt it the idea that its qpf is underdone in big time systems for the most part? like a 2-4in clipper, it does well.

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new from NCEP:

THE 12Z EUROPEAN IS VERY SIMILAR IN TRACK AND INTENSITY TO THE 00Z

RUN AND BY ITSELF COULD BE CONSIDERED A GOOD FORECAST CHOICE.

SINCE IT IS NOW RELATIVELY CLOSE TO ALL THE OTHER MODELS ANY

COMBINATION WOULD LIKELY GET A PRETTY REASONABLE FORECAST FOR THE

STORM. AS THE STORM PASSES OFF SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...THE 12Z RUN

IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS VERSION AND SOMEWHAT RESEMBLES THE 12Z

UKMET STALLING THE LOW FOR A FULL DAY...IMPLYING SLOWER ENDING TIMES

FOR SNOW ACROSS EASTERN CT.

WITH THE CONVERGENCE OF ALL 12Z MODELS...MOST COMBINATION OF ANY

AND EACH WOULD PROBABLY MAKE FOR A GOOD BLEND ESP THE SNOWIER

MODELS FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION.

Also note that if this stall occurs further south as the GFS suggests, QPF amts will need to be adjusted accordingly.

I particularly like the last part :P

Check out who wrote the disco...

kocin.jpg

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2pm update by JB

"UPDATING THIS MORNINGS POST.. SEVERE STORM TO SHUT NORTHEAST CORRIDOR PHL NORTHEAST FOR 12-24 HOURS. STORM FORCE GUSTS DELMARVA TO LONG ISLAND WITH 12-24 INCH AMOUNTS LEADING TO MASSIVE DRIFTS. AS BAD OR WORSE THAN ANY OF THE STORMS LAST YEAR FOR MANY PHL TO BOSTON, SOUTHEAST TO THE COAST. ROGUE CHARACTERISTICS WITH PRESSURE NEAR 28. 70 AT MOUTH OF DEL BAY TOMORROW NIGHT AND NEAR 28.55 BEFORE REACHING NEW ENGLAND."

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thats a small sample size and also, isnt it the idea that its qpf is underdone in big time systems for the most part? like a 2-4in clipper, it does well.

Not tue, I don't have the verification but HPC has a much longer time period where the mets verify against the models and the euro is the model to beat for the 0.50 or greater thresholds. for the lighter ones, that's the only verification I've got or seen. It is a misconception tha tht euro is not a good short range model. Part of that perception might be due to the resolution of the output most of us get to see. IN summer with MCCs, it might be a different story but in winter, it is a good short range model.

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Not tue, I don't have the verification but HPC has a much longer time period where the mets verify against the models and the euro is the model to beat for the 0.50 or greater thresholds. for the lighter ones, that's the only verification I've got or seen. It is a misconception tha tht euro is not a good short range model. Part of that perception might be due to the resolution of the output most of us get to see. IN summer with MCCs, it might be a different story but in winter, it is a good short range model.

thanks for the info. makes sense. i stand corrected.

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2pm update by JB

"UPDATING THIS MORNINGS POST.. SEVERE STORM TO SHUT NORTHEAST CORRIDOR PHL NORTHEAST FOR 12-24 HOURS. STORM FORCE GUSTS DELMARVA TO LONG ISLAND WITH 12-24 INCH AMOUNTS LEADING TO MASSIVE DRIFTS. AS BAD OR WORSE THAN ANY OF THE STORMS LAST YEAR FOR MANY PHL TO BOSTON, SOUTHEAST TO THE COAST. ROGUE CHARACTERISTICS WITH PRESSURE NEAR 28. 70 AT MOUTH OF DEL BAY TOMORROW NIGHT AND NEAR 28.55 BEFORE REACHING NEW ENGLAND."

lol Rogue Storm

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is that 4real?

Not entirely. It looks like the poster added the part about using the snowier models:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html

THE 12Z EUROPEAN IS VERY SIMILAR IN TRACK AND INTENSITY TO THE 00Z

RUN AND BY ITSELF COULD BE CONSIDERED A GOOD FORECAST CHOICE.

SINCE IT IS NOW RELATIVELY CLOSE TO ALL THE OTHER MODELS ANY

COMBINATION WOULD LIKELY GET A PRETTY REASONABLE FORECAST FOR THE

STORM. AS THE STORM PASSES OFF SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...THE 12Z RUN

IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS VERSION AND SOMEWHAT RESEMBLES THE 12Z

UKMET...IMPLYING SLOWER ENDING TIMES FOR SNOW ACROSS EASTERN NEW

ENGLAND.

WITH THE CONVERGENCE OF ALL 12Z MODELS...MOST COMBINATION OF ANY

AND EACH WOULD PROBABLY MAKE FOR A GOOD BLEND.

SHORTWAVE APPROACHING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THAT MOVES ACROSS THE

SOUTHWEST...TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING AND MIDWEST

BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE 12Z GFS IS FASTER THAN ...

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cant understand why local tv mets say this will taper off mon am. looks to me it will be wrapping up quite nicely mon am and wont push out til monday afternoon/evening.

latest SREF says so.

Nah, I think we'll be done in NYC / Philly by Monday AM .... unless this rumored "stall" happens ....

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LOOKS LIKE THE JACKPOT AREAS WITH THIS STORM MAY BE COASTAL JERSEY AND LONG ISLAND INCLUDING THE HEAVY WINDS THAT ARE GONNA EASILY MEET BLIZZARD CRITERIA I THINK. THIS STORM IS GONNA REACH SOME INCREDIBLE STRENGTH AND I WOULDNT BE SURPRISED THAT WHEN THE DEFORMATION BAND DEVELOPS THERS GONNA BE SOME THUNDERSNOW.

I CANNOT HEAR YOU. PLEASE SPEAK UP. THANKS.

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The 1" contour keeps shifting west with each set of SREF runs ...

As expected in dynamic east coast situations like this. This is clearly the same behavior the data had leading up to Jan 1996 and what was it the Feb 7th event last year? To some extent the Dec 19th blizzard as well. SREF mean spread, for several straight cycles, has indicated SLP and deform zone will continue to drift further SW with each and every run. We'll begin to see more 2"+ QPF max regions begin to pop up more regularly on the suites throughout the day as well.

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