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12z model discussion


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NOT all of then region did RIB...

isnt it like Lunch time for you dude ?

DT- the only point i was making was that storm, although much different set up(it was a redeveloping Alberta clipper i believe), was that the forecast for this area was to get a decent hit and the models showed that, but it was a bit too late and the sharp cutoff was just sw of Philly and only coastal Delaware got snow this far south,.something similar- not exactly the same- COULD occur in the DC-BWI corridor if this storm is a bit later developing and further offshore than most models are showing.

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Guest stormchaser

DT- the only point i was making was that storm, although much different set up(it was a redeveloping Alberta clipper i believe), was that the forecast for this area was to get a decent hit and the models showed that, but it was a bit too late and the sharp cutoff was just sw of Philly and only coastal Delaware got snow this far south,.something similar- not exactly the same- COULD occur in the DC-BWI corridor if this storm is a bit later developing and further offshore than most models are showing.

No offense meant here... but this point is really really moot. You could say the same thing with EVERY storm. If every storm forms later and further offshore then there COULD be the same situation where further south gets screwed.

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GFS forecast winds and snow would seem to suggest blizzard warnings would be warranted on afternoon product issuance part of PHI and BOX CWA.

On Utah U map, I basically double meters per second as a fairly close conversion to knots, so a barb being ten knots is a pretty good approximation. BTW, 70 mph winds about 2000' AGL in coastal New jersey suggests gusts to near that, as heavier snow could mix that down, IMHO.

GFSSF_NE2010122512F036.gif

post-138-0-54092300-1293299003.gif

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GFS forecast winds and snow would seem to suggest blizzard warnings would be warranted on afternoon product issuance part of PHI and BOX CWA.

On Utah U map, I basically double meters per second as a fairly close conversion to knots, so a barb being ten knots is a pretty good approximation. BTW, 70 mph winds about 2000' AGL in coastal New jersey suggests gusts to near that, as heavier snow could mix that down, IMHO.

If I were forecasting this, I'd be thinking Winter Storm Warning (obv, if guidance holds)/Blizzard Watch for coastal/eastern NJ, LI, NYC to be issued with the overnight package. Blizzard has such a public connotation that the NWS is and should be loath to use it. As the event begins and winds pick up, I'd upgrade to warnings where appropriate, but I'd mention in the disco that Blizzard Warnings may be indicated as far west as PHL depending on track/intensity. Further north, the same would apply for NNJ, NYC, LI, southern CT, RI, and eastern MA, just delayed by a package (morning package Sunday rather than evening package Saturday).

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