CAPE Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 pay attention ne and NW NJ had over 24" 8" isnt Much... and western PHL had a Lot less allentown had 3" or less My point stands your point about dec, 2000 is absurd since a lot of folks are going to see a aLOT of snow that did not in dec 2000 if you read my original post CAREFULLY, i said this was a different setup, but the end result of DC getting little was NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY due to later development and slightly more easterly track and that 2000 storm had a tight gradient and sharp cutoff as this one will, and NE will get hammered as occurred in that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 What is the link for the Raleigh GFS ensembles again? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Good to see ensembles still look good, but I'd still go with 4 to 8 around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 What is the link for the Raleigh GFS ensembles again? Thanks Look at the top of the site where it says " home, general forums, regional forums, chat, and Go To... click on go to and its the last link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Wow thats much better to look at, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The last 3 runs of the GFS (and ensembles) have had that area of purple (1.50-1.75) over the same spot in Ocean and Monmouth Counties, NJ on the Jersey Shore. I've never seen a model persist in maintaining a feature like that over the same spot for three model runs lol-- let alone its ensembles also showing the same thing for all three runs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 ehh... yes the GFS ensembles are a little west of the op but they are a BIG move east from the 6z and even the 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 ehh... yes the GFS ensembles are a little west of the op but they are a BIG move east from the 6z and even the 0z. huh? ur looking at just qpf maps obv.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Man Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 In West Chester, Pa we got about an inch December 31,2000 10" in my backyard in philly northern suburb, 12" at my gf's house in souderton a further north suburb between philly and allentown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 ehh... yes the GFS ensembles are a little west of the op but they are a BIG move east from the 6z and even the 0z. Did you look at the actual panels? It is a robust storm for a smoothed mean product. Some of you worry way too much about every QPF perturbation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 For the NJ lovers the SSB MM5 is trying to go 1899 on you. I wondered when someone would mention this lol. Feb 1899 dropped 35 inches on Cape May NJ-- pretty outlandish when you consider that's the southernmost point of that state and that's probably a three year snowfall average for them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Good to see ensembles still look good, but I'd still go with 4 to 8 around here. i think we would all take 4-8 after what we have been through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 ehh... yes the GFS ensembles are a little west of the op but they are a BIG move east from the 6z and even the 0z. lol I need to get out of this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Generally you want it near 73W and 39N but no two storms are the same, it depends on how wide/closed the 700 and 850 lows are, one storm a low 50 miles offshore will pound you, the next one 90 miles off and you get dryslotted. Absolutely-- also, it matters the type of path the storm takes to actually get to that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LehighValleyDad Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 In West Chester, Pa we got about an inch In that storm here in PA it seemed like the Northeast Extension of the PA turnpike was the back edge with an incredibly sharp gradient .... I think the western edge of Northampton country got maybe and inch or two, and the eastern edge was approaching a foot. I'll indulge an IMBY comment in hoping that this storm's western edge is a few more counties west of here. Merry Christmas to all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 ehh... yes the GFS ensembles are a little west of the op but they are a BIG move east from the 6z and even the 0z. You must be talking about qpf because the track of the storm itself only went east like 25 miles or so between 6z and 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 lol I need to get out of this thread You are talking to the guy who once said a 10" storm bored him and wasn't even "worth it." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 In that storm here in PA it seemed like the Northeast Extension of the PA turnpike was the back edge with an incredibly sharp gradient .... I think the western edge of Northampton country got maybe and inch or two, and the eastern edge was approaching a foot. I'll indulge an IMBY comment in hoping that this storm's western edge is a few more counties west of here. Merry Christmas to all. 12/30/00 I recall was actually a pretty day here...and by pretty I mean a good amount of sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 ehh... yes the GFS ensembles are a little west of the op but they are a BIG move east from the 6z and even the 0z. sure but the 6z was well amost rain for some areas right along the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 sure but the 6z was well amost rain for some areas right along the coast It could be showing 45" of heavy snow for his backyard and he would still grouse about it being down from 47" on the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 PHL recieved 9 inches from Dec 30,2000. NOT all of then region did RIB... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Did you look at the actual panels? It is a robust storm for a smoothed mean product. Some of you worry way too much about every QPF perturbation. i looked at the panels, and I am in Philadelphia so this is not a concern for me, but its not just the precip, the H7 track is a little east. The RGEM and GGEM took a slight east move as did the MM5. With that said, models trended too far east at the last minute with the Feb 10th storm also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Has the 12z euro gotten out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 ehh... yes the GFS ensembles are a little west of the op but they are a BIG move east from the 6z and even the 0z. ya we are 12 hours closer to storm so they should verifiy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Has the 12z euro gotten out yet? Not for another 20-30 minutes I'd say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LehighValleyDad Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NOT all of then region did RIB... isnt it like Lunch time for you dude ? That's right per my post above ... Man it's hard to believe that was 10 YEARS ago already. Seems like yesterday. On a lighter note .... I think that was back when I frequently tried to read JB's columns. In fact DT, you may laugh at this but I think it was a "kudos" reference that JB made to you one time that first pointed me in the direction of wxrisk and your particular weather expertise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seawind Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Is there an analog storm that someone could link to from the past with similar development? Just a lurker, but very thankful for this site as my family canceled a trip to Florida (returning to NYC on Monday) based on info from this site! Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I wondered when someone would mention this lol. Feb 1899 dropped 35 inches on Cape May NJ-- pretty outlandish when you consider that's the southernmost point of that state and that's probably a three year snowfall average for them! Yes, I believe that was/ is a state record. Hoping not to repeat. Too much of a good thing! lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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