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12z model discussion


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pay attention

ne and NW NJ had over 24"

8" isnt Much... and western PHL had a Lot less

allentown had 3" or less

My point stands

your point about dec, 2000 is absurd since a lot of folks are going to see a aLOT of snow that did not in dec 2000

if you read my original post CAREFULLY, i said this was a different setup, but the end result of DC getting little was NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY due to later development and slightly more easterly track and that 2000 storm had a tight gradient and sharp cutoff as this one will, and NE will get hammered as occurred in that storm.

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The last 3 runs of the GFS (and ensembles) have had that area of purple (1.50-1.75) over the same spot in Ocean and Monmouth Counties, NJ on the Jersey Shore. I've never seen a model persist in maintaining a feature like that over the same spot for three model runs lol-- let alone its ensembles also showing the same thing for all three runs!

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For the NJ lovers the SSB MM5 is trying to go 1899 on you.

I wondered when someone would mention this lol. Feb 1899 dropped 35 inches on Cape May NJ-- pretty outlandish when you consider that's the southernmost point of that state and that's probably a three year snowfall average for them!

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Generally you want it near 73W and 39N but no two storms are the same, it depends on how wide/closed the 700 and 850 lows are, one storm a low 50 miles offshore will pound you, the next one 90 miles off and you get dryslotted.

Absolutely-- also, it matters the type of path the storm takes to actually get to that point.

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In West Chester, Pa we got about an inch

In that storm here in PA it seemed like the Northeast Extension of the PA turnpike was the back edge with an incredibly sharp gradient .... I think the western edge of Northampton country got maybe and inch or two, and the eastern edge was approaching a foot. I'll indulge an IMBY comment in hoping that this storm's western edge is a few more counties west of here. Merry Christmas to all.

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In that storm here in PA it seemed like the Northeast Extension of the PA turnpike was the back edge with an incredibly sharp gradient .... I think the western edge of Northampton country got maybe and inch or two, and the eastern edge was approaching a foot. I'll indulge an IMBY comment in hoping that this storm's western edge is a few more counties west of here. Merry Christmas to all.

12/30/00 I recall was actually a pretty day here...and by pretty I mean a good amount of sun.

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Guest someguy

ehh... yes the GFS ensembles are a little west of the op but they are a BIG move east from the 6z and even the 0z.

sure but the 6z was well amost rain for some areas right along the coast

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Did you look at the actual panels? It is a robust storm for a smoothed mean product. Some of you worry way too much about every QPF perturbation.

i looked at the panels, and I am in Philadelphia so this is not a concern for me, but its not just the precip, the H7 track is a little east. The RGEM and GGEM took a slight east move as did the MM5.

With that said, models trended too far east at the last minute with the Feb 10th storm also.

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NOT all of then region did RIB...

isnt it like Lunch time for you dude ?

That's right per my post above ... Man it's hard to believe that was 10 YEARS ago already. Seems like yesterday.

On a lighter note .... I think that was back when I frequently tried to read JB's columns. In fact DT, you may laugh at this but I think it was a "kudos" reference that JB made to you one time that first pointed me in the direction of wxrisk and your particular weather expertise!

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Is there an analog storm that someone could link to from the past with similar development?

Just a lurker, but very thankful for this site as my family canceled a trip to Florida (returning to NYC on Monday) based on info from this site! Thanks.

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I wondered when someone would mention this lol. Feb 1899 dropped 35 inches on Cape May NJ-- pretty outlandish when you consider that's the southernmost point of that state and that's probably a three year snowfall average for them!

Yes, I believe that was/ is a state record. Hoping not to repeat. Too much of a good thing! lol.

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