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12z model discussion


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I honestly have no idea what to believe at all. This is the most insane, ridiculous, model chaos I have EVER been a part of. I feel like I live in the stone ages. We're less than 12 hours out and I have WSW's to my west and east and nothing here. At least I don't have this job as my profeession. Someone gave me a bottle of Cap'n Morgan for Christmas. I think I'll just start early.

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I honestly have no idea what to believe at all. This is the most insane, ridiculous, model chaos I have EVER been a part of. I feel like I live in the stone ages. We're less than 12 hours out and I have WSW's to my west and east and nothing here. At least I don't have this job as my profeession. Someone gave me a bottle of Cap'n Morgan for Christmas. I think I'll just start early.

Tracking these models with this storm has been quite the cardiac. It's like watching the Redskins. Wow what a model spread. First we get a storm. Then we don't get a storm. Now maybe we get 3 to 6 inches.

We'll know for sure tomorrow.The flizzard this morning was a nice Christmas surprise though.

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I don't know if anyone trusts the RUC, but its 15z run looks pretty darn good at 18 hours. Surface that is. All I looked at. Is it considered reliable? And, once again, would really like to hear some expert opinion on the diagnosis based on current conditions and observations.

A lot of people use the RUC in the short term obviously for big storms and I think it generally does a good job.

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Guest someguy

and that bullseye over Delmarva has shifted northeast to NJ. not saying it will happen but it would not surprise me if this ended up like Dec 2000...not the same set up but as far as the low getting its act together too late for DC Baltimore. that ended up a complete whiff down here other than right at the coast despite the WSW and forecast of 3-6 inches.

a truly NYC NJ view you have .

dec 30 2000 storm affected ONLY N NJ and NYC

PHL got very little and eastern md and eastern VA was sunny

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a truly stupid post.

dec 20 afefcted ONLY N NJ and NYC

PHL got very little and eastern md and eastern VA was sunny

dec 31 2000 philly got 8 inches...baltimore and dc got nothing. the forecast was for 3-6 inches. i clearly remember it because it was the Ravens-Broncos wildcard game. sorry you are wrong here,

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Latest SUNY mm5 similar to 00Z just shifted East slightly and a hair weaker. Question for you mets. Optimally how far off the coast do we want the surface low to be for the best snow in the CNJ area.

hasn't finished updating as its only out to 36 at the site I have

still looks nice for Baltimore after 36 hrs with more to come

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Guest someguy

dec 31 2000 philly got 8 inches...baltimore and dc got nothing. the forecast was for 3-6 inches. i clearly remember it because it was the Ravens-Broncos wildcard game. sorry you are wrong here,

pay attention

ne and NW NJ had over 24"

8" isnt Much... and western PHL had a Lot less

allentown had 3" or less

My point stands

your point about dec, 2000 is absurd since a lot of folks are going to see a aLOT of snow that did not in dec 2000

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Latest SUNY mm5 similar to 00Z just shifted East slightly and a hair weaker. Question for you mets. Optimally how far off the coast do we want the surface low to be for the best snow in the CNJ area.

Generally you want it near 73W and 39N but no two storms are the same, it depends on how wide/closed the 700 and 850 lows are, one storm a low 50 miles offshore will pound you, the next one 90 miles off and you get dryslotted.

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December 31,2000 10" in my backyard in philly northern suburb, 12" at my gf's house in souderton a further north suburb between philly and allentown

pay attention

ne and NW NJ had over 24"

8" isnt Much... and western PHL had a Lot less

allentown had 3" or less

My point stands

your point about dec, 2000 is absurd since a lot of folks are going to see a aLOT of snow that did not in dec 2000

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