weathervswife Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I honestly have no idea what to believe at all. This is the most insane, ridiculous, model chaos I have EVER been a part of. I feel like I live in the stone ages. We're less than 12 hours out and I have WSW's to my west and east and nothing here. At least I don't have this job as my profeession. Someone gave me a bottle of Cap'n Morgan for Christmas. I think I'll just start early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 SUNY MM5 very slightly East with SLP @ 27 hours. This is a very good short term model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This is a very good short term model. It generally follows the NAM closely since its run off its grid I believe, if it is differing from the NAM it usually means one of them is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Hey, at one point we expected nothing. Its Christmas, I'm alive, I;m with family. 3 to 6, 4 to 8 is fine with me. Would I like more...of course I would. That's what she said.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It generally follows the NAM closely since its run off its grid I believe, if it is differing from the NAM it usually means one of them is wrong. 500 mb looks a lot different @ 27 verse 39 from last night. The trough looks to penetrate much deeper into the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 That's what she said.. or he Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 12hr GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 24 hr GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 on a side note , the storm next weekend brings the 850 line at 10 degrees celsius up into upstate New York with a low over Iowa and rain as far north as Northern Wisc and the UP of MI. It hardly ever rains in the upper this time of yr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Does anyone know where I can find DT's snow map. I see people on facebook commenting on it...yet can't find it on here, on facebook, or wxrisk.com Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I honestly have no idea what to believe at all. This is the most insane, ridiculous, model chaos I have EVER been a part of. I feel like I live in the stone ages. We're less than 12 hours out and I have WSW's to my west and east and nothing here. At least I don't have this job as my profeession. Someone gave me a bottle of Cap'n Morgan for Christmas. I think I'll just start early. Tracking these models with this storm has been quite the cardiac. It's like watching the Redskins. Wow what a model spread. First we get a storm. Then we don't get a storm. Now maybe we get 3 to 6 inches. We'll know for sure tomorrow.The flizzard this morning was a nice Christmas surprise though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUmetstudent Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Does anyone know where I can find DT's snow map. I see people on facebook commenting on it...yet can't find it on here, on facebook, or wxrisk.com Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I don't know if anyone trusts the RUC, but its 15z run looks pretty darn good at 18 hours. Surface that is. All I looked at. Is it considered reliable? And, once again, would really like to hear some expert opinion on the diagnosis based on current conditions and observations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I don't know if anyone trusts the RUC, but its 15z run looks pretty darn good at 18 hours. Surface that is. All I looked at. Is it considered reliable? And, once again, would really like to hear some expert opinion on the diagnosis based on current conditions and observations. A lot of people use the RUC in the short term obviously for big storms and I think it generally does a good job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 and that bullseye over Delmarva has shifted northeast to NJ. not saying it will happen but it would not surprise me if this ended up like Dec 2000...not the same set up but as far as the low getting its act together too late for DC Baltimore. that ended up a complete whiff down here other than right at the coast despite the WSW and forecast of 3-6 inches. a truly NYC NJ view you have . dec 30 2000 storm affected ONLY N NJ and NYC PHL got very little and eastern md and eastern VA was sunny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 a truly stupid post. dec 20 afefcted ONLY N NJ and NYC PHL got very little and eastern md and eastern VA was sunny PHL recieved 9 inches from Dec 30,2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I like the cras. Give's Blizzard-On-Gfs a nice torrential rain storm. cmon if Blizzard-On-GFS can't post when there is an actual blizzard on the GFS, then when can he post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 a truly stupid post. dec 20 afefcted ONLY N NJ and NYC PHL got very little and eastern md and eastern VA was sunny dec 31 2000 philly got 8 inches...baltimore and dc got nothing. the forecast was for 3-6 inches. i clearly remember it because it was the Ravens-Broncos wildcard game. sorry you are wrong here, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 12z ggem hammers the coast at 36 hrs very sharp cut off inland from heavy snow to light Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Latest SUNY mm5 similar to 00Z just shifted East slightly and a hair weaker. Question for you mets. Optimally how far off the coast do we want the surface low to be for the best snow in the CNJ area. hasn't finished updating as its only out to 36 at the site I have still looks nice for Baltimore after 36 hrs with more to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 :lol:nice one haha I like the cras. Give's Blizzard-On-Gfs a nice torrential rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 hasn't finished updating as its only out to 36 at the site I have still looks nice for Baltimore after 36 hrs with more to come if you change the 36 to 39 or 42 in the link itself you can see the updates before they refresh on the main page! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 FWIW 12z gfs ensembles are out to 72... WEST of op.. DC is in the .5-.75 and the low starts to bomb out just a few miles off of cape hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 dec 31 2000 philly got 8 inches...baltimore and dc got nothing. the forecast was for 3-6 inches. i clearly remember it because it was the Ravens-Broncos wildcard game. sorry you are wrong here, pay attention ne and NW NJ had over 24" 8" isnt Much... and western PHL had a Lot less allentown had 3" or less My point stands your point about dec, 2000 is absurd since a lot of folks are going to see a aLOT of snow that did not in dec 2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Latest SUNY mm5 similar to 00Z just shifted East slightly and a hair weaker. Question for you mets. Optimally how far off the coast do we want the surface low to be for the best snow in the CNJ area. Generally you want it near 73W and 39N but no two storms are the same, it depends on how wide/closed the 700 and 850 lows are, one storm a low 50 miles offshore will pound you, the next one 90 miles off and you get dryslotted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
budl Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 DT,I'm looking at the IR sat.over michigan,what is that circulation ,is that the northern sw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 12z GFS ensembles look good for the Mid Atlantic south and east of a line from I-83 to I-78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 December 31,2000 10" in my backyard in philly northern suburb, 12" at my gf's house in souderton a further north suburb between philly and allentown pay attention ne and NW NJ had over 24" 8" isnt Much... and western PHL had a Lot less allentown had 3" or less My point stands your point about dec, 2000 is absurd since a lot of folks are going to see a aLOT of snow that did not in dec 2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 FWIW 12z gfs ensembles are out to 72... WEST of op.. DC is in the .5-.75 and the low starts to bomb out just a few miles off of cape hatteras. good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 For the NJ lovers the SSB MM5 is trying to go 1899 on you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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