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12z model discussion


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I guess they were in our dreams, certainly not on our snow boards. It still looks good for people to the north of DC. The GFS looks very euro-ish down here.

So perhaps we are starting to finally get agreement on this from most models. General 3-6 for DC with much better up the I-95 corridor north of us. Decent storm.

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the 500 trough looks sharper if a bit NE.... much like the NAM... we need this thing to bomb out about 3-9 hours earlier for DC to get the same shellacking as further up the coast... verbatim its a 4-8" snowfall for DC

given what we've seen, I'd consider this a very middle of the road solution for everyone... but given what we've seen with this system so far, a 50-75 mile shift either way is highly possible at this point given the huge inconsistencies with this system... the kind of shifts we're seeing now are usually what we see in the 48-90 hour period... not within 36 hours of the event... the biggest take away is the modeling is having a hard time with the system.

gfs_p48_054m.gif

almost half an inch of liquid with around 15:1 ratios... i'll take it in a heartbeat in a la nina year.

my only personal qualm is i want to see some thundersnow and the dynamics are a bit too far east for that possibility according to this run.

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Guest someguy

More like a Jersey special...

can you folks in NJ and NYC and LI try and look at the whole picture beofe thinking the world sets and reovles around your

areas?

Lower MD eastern MD and ne VA gets crushed as well

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Can't wait to see the bufkit at acy for this run! just WOW

The Nam is out already and it looks incredible in central CT. -40microbars per second in the dendritic snow growth zone. Snow ratios are super high but the wind is also roaring so it will keep totals down a bit I think....I want to check the whole eastern sea board but its Christmas and my family is going to kill me..... :arrowhead:

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Guest someguy

So perhaps we are starting to finally get agreement on this from most models. General 3-6 for DC with much better up the I-95 corridor north of us. Decent storm.

once you are N of EZF either side of I-95 will se e Huge differnces

4-8 N and NW of I-95 8-12 s and e of I-95 closer to the Bay

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can you folks in NJ and NYC and LI try and look at the whole picture beofe thinking the world sets and reovles around your

areas?

Lower MD eastern MD and ne VA gets crushed as well

They should be taking region specific information to their regional threads. This is generally for general analysis.

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HUGE Difference from 6z. I don't know why you all think it's okay.

This map of snowfall is for 6z- GFS

DC was in 12-15"

BWI was 15"-18"

Annapolis was 18"-20"

Now DC/BWI/Annapolis get 4"-8" on this run

Like I said. HUGE DIFFERENCE. axesmiley.png

and that bullseye over Delmarva has shifted northeast to NJ. not saying it will happen but it would not surprise me if this ended up like Dec 2000...not the same set up but as far as the low getting its act together too late for DC Baltimore. that ended up a complete whiff down here other than right at the coast despite the WSW and forecast of 3-6 inches.

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