beez Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NJ looks to get 2 feet per this run. yep,,,nj gets crippled and even the coastal areas stay all snow per soundings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I must have missed that one. Yeah I"m not sure what he's talking about. If he means the recent inch or two...I got like 1.1 from that. But this is OT. GFS still looks decent for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rok Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 not able to view a T-skew yet but I would imagine a thundersnow profile in there somewhere.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I must have missed that one. I guess they were in our dreams, certainly not on our snow boards. It still looks good for people to the north of DC. The GFS looks very euro-ish down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 yep,,,nj gets crippled and even the coastal areas stay all snow per soundings hey do you have a link for txt soundings? My old link doesn't work... I wanna check out ttn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I guess they were in our dreams, certainly not on our snow boards. It still looks good for people to the north of DC. The GFS looks very euro-ish down here. So perhaps we are starting to finally get agreement on this from most models. General 3-6 for DC with much better up the I-95 corridor north of us. Decent storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerseystorm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Can't wait to see the bufkit at acy for this run! just WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 the 500 trough looks sharper if a bit NE.... much like the NAM... we need this thing to bomb out about 3-9 hours earlier for DC to get the same shellacking as further up the coast... verbatim its a 4-8" snowfall for DC given what we've seen, I'd consider this a very middle of the road solution for everyone... but given what we've seen with this system so far, a 50-75 mile shift either way is highly possible at this point given the huge inconsistencies with this system... the kind of shifts we're seeing now are usually what we see in the 48-90 hour period... not within 36 hours of the event... the biggest take away is the modeling is having a hard time with the system. almost half an inch of liquid with around 15:1 ratios... i'll take it in a heartbeat in a la nina year. my only personal qualm is i want to see some thundersnow and the dynamics are a bit too far east for that possibility according to this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 i think my maps are fishy cuz the 12z GFS i have looks 6hr slower than 6z so anyone have a link to GFS maps? http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/12zgfs.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 HUGE Difference from 6z. I don't know why you all think it's okay. This map of snowfall is for 6z- GFS DC was in 12-15" BWI was 15"-18" Annapolis was 18"-20" Now DC/BWI/Annapolis get 4"-8" on this run Like I said. HUGE DIFFERENCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confuzzled Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 i think my maps are fishy cuz the 12z GFS i have looks 6hr slower than 6z so anyone have a link to GFS maps? http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 More like a Jersey special... can you folks in NJ and NYC and LI try and look at the whole picture beofe thinking the world sets and reovles around your areas? Lower MD eastern MD and ne VA gets crushed as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confuzzled Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Can't wait to see the bufkit at acy for this run! just WOW The Nam is out already and it looks incredible in central CT. -40microbars per second in the dendritic snow growth zone. Snow ratios are super high but the wind is also roaring so it will keep totals down a bit I think....I want to check the whole eastern sea board but its Christmas and my family is going to kill me..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 So perhaps we are starting to finally get agreement on this from most models. General 3-6 for DC with much better up the I-95 corridor north of us. Decent storm. once you are N of EZF either side of I-95 will se e Huge differnces 4-8 N and NW of I-95 8-12 s and e of I-95 closer to the Bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Hey, at one point we expected nothing. Its Christmas, I'm alive, I;m with family. 3 to 6, 4 to 8 is fine with me. Would I like more...of course I would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 can you folks in NJ and NYC and LI try and look at the whole picture beofe thinking the world sets and reovles around your areas? Lower MD eastern MD and ne VA gets crushed as well They should be taking region specific information to their regional threads. This is generally for general analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 can you folks in NJ and NYC and LI try and look at the whole picture beofe thinking the world sets and reovles around your areas? Lower MD eastern MD and ne VA gets crushed as well Also take into account the Central Park Zoo and Riverdale rulers when guessing amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 can you folks in NJ and NYC and LI try and look at the whole picture beofe thinking the world sets and reovles around your areas? Lower MD eastern MD and ne VA gets crushed as well Hey bud it doesn't. Last I checked 2" of qpf was more then .75. Please correct me if I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 http://www.nco.ncep....wprod/analysis/ Problem might be that there is a 6 hour time difference between the 06Z and the 12Z but the models are in 12 hour increments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
retusnmete8 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 In terms of positioning, this run hardly seems different than 06Z. It is deeper, but doesn't bomb until a bit further north, hence the cutback on the western edge. 36HR still looks nice to me. Agree.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 They should be taking region specific information to their regional threads. This is generally for general analysis. I was just noting the GFS qpf map.... not really regional discussion. Thought it was strange that the bullseye is now NJ rather then NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorMu Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Wasn't this snow from the original northern short wave that the models were keying on? Yes, and the Texas s/w fed into it a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 CRAS.... western outlier.... and I want to stress OUTLIER... this has about a 1 % chance of verifying.... rain in to DC....c'mon mainly showing this for JI's benefit to show not everything has shifted east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yea it'd when it bombs. 12z had a 1012 low in fl panhandlE while the 6z had it at 1008. That's the main difference. Track is still good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 guess JI is not a fan of the CRAS Model after all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'll take the cras Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'll take the cras and like it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 SUNY MM5 very slightly East with SLP @ 27 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 HUGE Difference from 6z. I don't know why you all think it's okay. This map of snowfall is for 6z- GFS DC was in 12-15" BWI was 15"-18" Annapolis was 18"-20" Now DC/BWI/Annapolis get 4"-8" on this run Like I said. HUGE DIFFERENCE. and that bullseye over Delmarva has shifted northeast to NJ. not saying it will happen but it would not surprise me if this ended up like Dec 2000...not the same set up but as far as the low getting its act together too late for DC Baltimore. that ended up a complete whiff down here other than right at the coast despite the WSW and forecast of 3-6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I like the cras. Give's Blizzard-On-Gfs a nice torrential rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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