retusnmete8 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Seems to be so. Perhaps a NAM/GFS compromise with a little lean towards the GFS? Maybe where you are farther north, but prob not down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 West of DC gets screwed this run a bit. Baltimore NE is fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 still a good hit for dc area at 30 not really, scrapes DCA with .1 liquid IAD about .05 previous run was DCA .40 and IAD .35 for same time period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NJ nyc just buried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 We should have expected this. the 6z run was REALLY far west of where it should be for riding the gulf stream. The 6z run brought the 850 0z line to ACY and swamped SNE before a changeover. Its just correcting itself. Itll be tough to muster over 6-8" for the RIC-Baltimore area as the storm wraps up really quickly around the head of the 500mb vorticity then loops around the NY bight as it stacks vertically. TTN-BOS get buried as it pivots around the shortwave. Ludicrous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 major shift east Drive to Boston--I doubt there'd be any traffic today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beez Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It shifted E like 25 miles guys,relax. its good news for immediate coastal areas that where the 6z run was showing a changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It shifted E like 25 miles guys,relax. you have to realize its a matter of perspective on location. Philly north it evens out because the storm cuts due north. From DC south its way more then a 25 mile shift..some places west of DC just went from .5 to nothing. Its about a 50 mile shift east down there and thats a big deal if its the difference between 8" and nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Not WAY East....actually at 36 some nice throw back....very nice compared to where we were 18 hours ago.....beautiful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It didn't go east. It just waited till it was south of LI to bomb and stall instead of near ACY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 So basically this is a NYC/Long Island Special.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 We should have expected this. the 6z run was REALLY far west of where it should be for riding the gulf stream. The 6z run brought the 850 0z line to ACY and swamped SNE before a changeover. Its just correcting itself. Itll be tough to muster over 6-8" for the RIC-Baltimore area as the storm wraps up really quickly around the head of the 500mb vorticity then loops around the NY bight as it stacks vertically. TTN-BOS get buried as it pivots around the shortwave. Ludicrous Thanks for the analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It's one little move east. Can easily come back west tonight. Geez calm down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It is a shift east, but we all know ji is like a little girl, so he's exaggerating. The shift is slight and the westward extension of the good stuff is cut back...so yeah, QPF is gonna be down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 its a drier run all the way around, that's all that may change don't forget the SREF's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The SREF's were pretty nice. That's enough to keep me split at this point. I still think we muster out an ok system for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 wait to see ensembles before freaking out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It is a shift east, but we all know ji is like a little girl, so he's exaggerating. The shift is slight and the westward extension of the good stuff is cut back...so yeah, QPF is gonna be down It is still a nice plowable snowfall for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 SWEET JESUS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 this gives central NJ two feet verbatim. Insanity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxClimate Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 500mb low in the 12Z GFS maybe a smidge east, but it's definitely deeper ... that's good news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 its a drier run all the way around, that's all that may change don't forget the SREF's This might be at the eastern edge of the ensemble guidance anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 So basically this is a NYC/Long Island Special.... More like a Jersey special... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 If you look at total QPF the amount dropped on the gulf stream offshore of NC/SC increases tremendously over this run compared to 6z. Would that mean more moisture being drawn into the system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 unless my maps didnt refresh correctly, but i dont see the east shift. sure if ur just looking at sfc low plcement, it might be. but the whole thing is a bit slower, should allow for earlier phasing and a deeper solution regardless where the sfc low plcement is being depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yeah looking at the total precip map on GFS - DC still manages like a 3-6 inch storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It's time to start relying on radar and sat. images and not obsess over every jog, left or right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yeah looking at the total precip map on GFS - DC still manages like a 3-6 inch storm. NJ looks to get 2 feet per this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 So Md. still a nice storm......relax group...will be tons of fun....the way it's been last 4 days this gives time for end solution of see-saw models to be WEST!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 In terms of positioning, this run hardly seems different than 06Z. It is deeper, but doesn't bomb until a bit further north, hence the cutback on the western edge. 36HR still looks nice to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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