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12z model discussion


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We should have expected this. the 6z run was REALLY far west of where it should be for riding the gulf stream. The 6z run brought the 850 0z line to ACY and swamped SNE before a changeover. Its just correcting itself. Itll be tough to muster over 6-8" for the RIC-Baltimore area as the storm wraps up really quickly around the head of the 500mb vorticity then loops around the NY bight as it stacks vertically. TTN-BOS get buried as it pivots around the shortwave. Ludicrous

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It shifted E like 25 miles guys,relax.

you have to realize its a matter of perspective on location.

Philly north it evens out because the storm cuts due north.

From DC south its way more then a 25 mile shift..some places west of DC just went from .5 to nothing.

Its about a 50 mile shift east down there and thats a big deal if its the difference between 8" and nothing.

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We should have expected this. the 6z run was REALLY far west of where it should be for riding the gulf stream. The 6z run brought the 850 0z line to ACY and swamped SNE before a changeover. Its just correcting itself. Itll be tough to muster over 6-8" for the RIC-Baltimore area as the storm wraps up really quickly around the head of the 500mb vorticity then loops around the NY bight as it stacks vertically. TTN-BOS get buried as it pivots around the shortwave. Ludicrous

Thanks for the analysis.

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