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12z model discussion


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Guest someguy

DT when will you be doing a first call? ...and from your post i take it you don't think ptype issues will be a problem from nyc and west?

on fb page and on wxrisk site by 1030

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you cant get the low to come too far inland, super strong 50/50 providing more than enuff confluence to hold the track off land. strong H nosing in during the storm, can o only hook it so far. i think places in SNE will worry about p-type cuz of how NE sticks out and the low being captured and pulled back. so SE MASS and coastal RI has to be concerned.

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Guest someguy

DT - you see select locations getting 2 feet?

NOOOOOOOOO

8-12 FOR RIC Northern Neck maybe into Williamsburg NNN into Lower MD eastern shore 12"+

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I meant for CNJ on North and East.. :)

The QPF is running a tad lower than the 12/20 event last year just based off my memory and in that only areas under banding on LI saw 2 feet...I think someone will but right now I think this may move too fast to have alot of 24+ amounts if it worked out as currently projected.

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NCEP Operational Status Message

Sat Dec 25 15:20:16 2010 GMT

NOUS42 KWNO 251519

ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE

NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD

1517Z SAT DEC 25 2010

THE 12Z GFS MODEL HAS STARTED AND IS RUNNING ON TIME. OBSERVATIONS

AVAILABLE FOR GFS INGEST INCLUDED 14 ALASKAN...32 CANADIAN...71

CONUS...8 MEXICAN...10 CARIBBEAN...AND 10 GULF OF MEXICO

DROPSONDES.

12Z RAOB RECAP...

KCR/78384 - PURGED TEMPS/DWPTS 831-817 MB...WET BULB EFFECT.

NCC/78988 - GROUND EQUIPMENT FAILURE...CODE 10142.

MEX/76679 - CODE 10194.

FFR/78897 - SHORT TO 535 MB.

KPP/78970 - PURGED WIND 815-813 MB...BAD DATA.

GEM/04220 - PURGED TEMPS/DWPTS ABOVE 274 MB...BAD DATA.

DSD/78486 - PURGED WINDS ABOVE 31 MB...BAD DATA.

$$

HANDEL/SDM/NCO/NCEP

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GFS a hiar less amped at 12hrs vs. 6z at 18, but it may be a hair west a very little bit too

Yeah, its definitely gonna be a little bit east of 6z, but that was best case scenario. can't say I'm not a little concerned with the RGEM being closer to the NAM than GFS...but SREFS are extremely bullish.

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MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

1018 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010

VALID DEC 25/1200 UTC THRU DEC 29/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR

INGEST...

12Z NAM EVALUATION

MODEL INITIALIZATION ERRORS ARE DESCRIBED UNDER THE RELEVANT

SYSTEM HEADING.

POTENTIAL EAST COAST STORM...

THE OBSERVED 250 MB WIND AND 500 MB HEIGHT AT LAKE CHARLES...WHERE

THE SMALL BUT POTENT SHORTWAVE IS FOUND...APPEAR TO BE INDICATIVE

OF THE SLIGHTLY DEEPER TROUGH RELATIVE TO THE NAM ANALYSIS. AS A

RESULT NAM 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 20 M HIGHER THAN ANALYZED AND

THE OBSERVED WINDS ARE 20 KNOTS LOWER THAN THE NAM ANALYSIS AT 250

MB...WHICH MIGHT REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE HIGHER WIND

SPEEDS MAY BE LOCATED FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SLIGHTLY DEEPER

TROUGH.

THERE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES FROM EARLIER

VERSIONS OF THE NAM WITH THE JET STREAK/SHORTWAVE DROPPING

SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES THAT WILL LIKELY PHASE WITH THE

GULF LOW/TROUGH TO GENERATE THE INTENSIFYING CYCLONE.

LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY

HANDLED BY THE OPERATIONAL NAM FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS DATING

BACK TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THE 12Z NAM IS CONSISTENT WITH THE

PAST 3 RUNS THROUGH AROUND SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THERE IS SLIGHT

JOG FARTHER NORTHWARD AS THE LOW IS MOVING TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW

ENGLAND. SUCH A JOG WOULD HAVE SOME IMPLICATIONS...THOUGH

SLIGHT...IN THAT THE CYCLONE CENTER WOULD BE 20 TO 30 MILES

FARTHER NORTH NORTHWEST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WHILE THIS IS NOT A

LARGE CHANGE...IT IS STILL CONSISTENT WITH A TENDENCY FOR THE

SYSTEM TO BE CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN FARTHER EAST...AT LEAST FOR

THE NAM.

THE 12Z NAM SEEMS TO CLUSTER WELL WITH THE UKMET/CANADIAN RUNS BUT

CONTINUE TO BE FARTHER EAST OF THE RECENT GFS/NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN

AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS AND SOMEWHAT FARTHER EAST THAN THE THE

00Z EUROPEAN AS WELL. JUST HAD A DISCUSSION THAT THE 09Z SREF

MEANS BRING HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC

REGION...ANOTHER INDICATION OF THE WESTWARD DRIFT OF THE GFS

SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS THOUGH HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH

THE 12Z NAM.

SHORTWAVE APPROACHING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

THE NAM IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS 2 RUNS IN BRING THIS

SYSTEM INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY MORNING WHILE BEING

FASTER THAN THE FORECAST ISSUED AT 18Z YESTERDAY.

MAJOR TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY INTO

MONDAY...

NAM IS CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER RUNS ON SUNDAY/DAY 1 BUT THEN

APPEARS TO ACCELERATE RELATIVE TO THE EARLIER MODELS BY MONDAY/DAY

2. 12Z NAM HAS SHORTWAVE AXIS OVER WESTERN MONTANA WHILE EARLIER

RUNS APPEAR FLATTER AND FARTHER WEST TOWARD WASHINGTON/OREGON.

THIS IS EVEN A MODEST CHANGE FROM THE 06Z RUN WHICH SHOWS MORE

WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OREGON AND WASHINGTON AT 500 MB WHILE

WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS CURRENTLY SHOWN BY THE 12Z RUN. THE

SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE FIELDS ONLY SHOW SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH A LOW

IN MANITOBA FARTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER RUNS AT 12Z MONDAY.

...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT

WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML...

...500MB FORECASTS AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML...

KOCIN

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