WinterWxLuvr Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Any thoughts or comments on the pressure falls in the gulf, and the apparent formation of a low just south of Louisiana, and how that stacks up with what is being modeled and forecast? And also any implications from that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Well it's snowing in Baltimore right now, so let's see how things initialize. still don't see how the nam can hold such a different solution just hours away from the storm. However, i do know the nam has done this before...and was right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 If you take all the forecast models around and asked me though which one would I most likely trust to win inside 36 hours if it was showing a varied solution, I'd pick the NAM by a mile over all others. I don't normally like any outlier model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Well it's snowing in Baltimore right now, so let's see how things initialize. still don't see how the nam can hold such a different solution just hours away from the storm. However, i do know the nam has done this before...and was right The snow in the area now has little bearing on the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Question for the pro mets. Does anyone see a point where the models stop the westward trend or do you think it will continue right up to show time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 DT when will you be doing a first call? ...and from your post i take it you don't think ptype issues will be a problem from nyc and west? on fb page and on wxrisk site by 1030 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The snow in the area now has little bearing on the coastal. The snow in the area is from the lead shortwave heading due east that looks like it helped cause absolute chaos in the models losing this storm out to sea for 2 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 RGEM looks about the same for DCA/BWI as last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 RGEM looks about the same for DCA/BWI as last run Where do you see it so early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 you cant get the low to come too far inland, super strong 50/50 providing more than enuff confluence to hold the track off land. strong H nosing in during the storm, can o only hook it so far. i think places in SNE will worry about p-type cuz of how NE sticks out and the low being captured and pulled back. so SE MASS and coastal RI has to be concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 DT - you see select locations getting 2 feet? NOOOOOOOOO 8-12 FOR RIC Northern Neck maybe into Williamsburg NNN into Lower MD eastern shore 12"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Where do you see it so early? 24 http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/592_50.gif 36 hr http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/593_50.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 24 http://www.weatherof...cast/592_50.gif 36 hr http://www.weatherof...cast/593_50.gif Thanks, for us in the dc area not the gfs or the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The snow in the area now has little bearing on the coastal. Wasn't this snow from the original northern short wave that the models were keying on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I meant for CNJ on North and East.. The QPF is running a tad lower than the 12/20 event last year just based off my memory and in that only areas under banding on LI saw 2 feet...I think someone will but right now I think this may move too fast to have alot of 24+ amounts if it worked out as currently projected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Thanks, for us in the dc area not the gfs or the nam. actually, a bit more falls after 36 hrs Wes here is a link to the 48 hr http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/600_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Where do you see it so early? He is right, slight improvement on RGEM from last night. Probably a 1-3" event for DC per RGEM but I expected more of a westward move by that model. Still closer to the NAM camp then the GFS. Oh well the SREF/GFS combo is pretty good at this range so I am not too worried by it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GFS initialized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NCEP Operational Status Message Sat Dec 25 15:20:16 2010 GMT NOUS42 KWNO 251519 ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD 1517Z SAT DEC 25 2010 THE 12Z GFS MODEL HAS STARTED AND IS RUNNING ON TIME. OBSERVATIONS AVAILABLE FOR GFS INGEST INCLUDED 14 ALASKAN...32 CANADIAN...71 CONUS...8 MEXICAN...10 CARIBBEAN...AND 10 GULF OF MEXICO DROPSONDES. 12Z RAOB RECAP... KCR/78384 - PURGED TEMPS/DWPTS 831-817 MB...WET BULB EFFECT. NCC/78988 - GROUND EQUIPMENT FAILURE...CODE 10142. MEX/76679 - CODE 10194. FFR/78897 - SHORT TO 535 MB. KPP/78970 - PURGED WIND 815-813 MB...BAD DATA. GEM/04220 - PURGED TEMPS/DWPTS ABOVE 274 MB...BAD DATA. DSD/78486 - PURGED WINDS ABOVE 31 MB...BAD DATA. $$ HANDEL/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
retusnmete8 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Question for the pro mets. Does anyone see a point where the models stop the westward trend or do you think it will continue right up to show time? Already have IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 on second inspection its better then 0z but actually east of 6z. RGEM took a baby step in the wrong direction. It doesn't mean much for Philly to Boston but could for DC to have NAM/RGEM pretty much against the MECS idea of the GFS/SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GFS a hiar less amped at 12hrs vs. 6z at 18, but it may be a hair west a very little bit too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 on second inspection its better then 0z but actually east of 6z. RGEM took a baby step in the wrong direction. It doesn't mean much for Philly to Boston but could for DC to have NAM/RGEM pretty much against the MECS idea of the GFS/SREF I wouldn't worry, man. Ha, yeah right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Closed 850 low (a large one at that) in SC/NC at 18 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 gfs a little east this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GFS a hiar less amped at 12hrs vs. 6z at 18, but it may be a hair west a very little bit too Yeah, its definitely gonna be a little bit east of 6z, but that was best case scenario. can't say I'm not a little concerned with the RGEM being closer to the NAM than GFS...but SREFS are extremely bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 gfs a little east this run Seems to be so. Perhaps a NAM/GFS compromise with a little lean towards the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 1018 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010 VALID DEC 25/1200 UTC THRU DEC 29/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z NAM EVALUATION MODEL INITIALIZATION ERRORS ARE DESCRIBED UNDER THE RELEVANT SYSTEM HEADING. POTENTIAL EAST COAST STORM... THE OBSERVED 250 MB WIND AND 500 MB HEIGHT AT LAKE CHARLES...WHERE THE SMALL BUT POTENT SHORTWAVE IS FOUND...APPEAR TO BE INDICATIVE OF THE SLIGHTLY DEEPER TROUGH RELATIVE TO THE NAM ANALYSIS. AS A RESULT NAM 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 20 M HIGHER THAN ANALYZED AND THE OBSERVED WINDS ARE 20 KNOTS LOWER THAN THE NAM ANALYSIS AT 250 MB...WHICH MIGHT REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS MAY BE LOCATED FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SLIGHTLY DEEPER TROUGH. THERE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES FROM EARLIER VERSIONS OF THE NAM WITH THE JET STREAK/SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES THAT WILL LIKELY PHASE WITH THE GULF LOW/TROUGH TO GENERATE THE INTENSIFYING CYCLONE. LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY HANDLED BY THE OPERATIONAL NAM FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS DATING BACK TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THE 12Z NAM IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PAST 3 RUNS THROUGH AROUND SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THERE IS SLIGHT JOG FARTHER NORTHWARD AS THE LOW IS MOVING TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SUCH A JOG WOULD HAVE SOME IMPLICATIONS...THOUGH SLIGHT...IN THAT THE CYCLONE CENTER WOULD BE 20 TO 30 MILES FARTHER NORTH NORTHWEST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WHILE THIS IS NOT A LARGE CHANGE...IT IS STILL CONSISTENT WITH A TENDENCY FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN FARTHER EAST...AT LEAST FOR THE NAM. THE 12Z NAM SEEMS TO CLUSTER WELL WITH THE UKMET/CANADIAN RUNS BUT CONTINUE TO BE FARTHER EAST OF THE RECENT GFS/NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS AND SOMEWHAT FARTHER EAST THAN THE THE 00Z EUROPEAN AS WELL. JUST HAD A DISCUSSION THAT THE 09Z SREF MEANS BRING HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...ANOTHER INDICATION OF THE WESTWARD DRIFT OF THE GFS SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS THOUGH HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH THE 12Z NAM. SHORTWAVE APPROACHING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... THE NAM IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS 2 RUNS IN BRING THIS SYSTEM INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY MORNING WHILE BEING FASTER THAN THE FORECAST ISSUED AT 18Z YESTERDAY. MAJOR TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY... NAM IS CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER RUNS ON SUNDAY/DAY 1 BUT THEN APPEARS TO ACCELERATE RELATIVE TO THE EARLIER MODELS BY MONDAY/DAY 2. 12Z NAM HAS SHORTWAVE AXIS OVER WESTERN MONTANA WHILE EARLIER RUNS APPEAR FLATTER AND FARTHER WEST TOWARD WASHINGTON/OREGON. THIS IS EVEN A MODEST CHANGE FROM THE 06Z RUN WHICH SHOWS MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OREGON AND WASHINGTON AT 500 MB WHILE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS CURRENTLY SHOWN BY THE 12Z RUN. THE SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE FIELDS ONLY SHOW SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH A LOW IN MANITOBA FARTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER RUNS AT 12Z MONDAY. ...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML... ...500MB FORECASTS AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML... KOCIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Well, you knew it was going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlsnowman24 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It shifted E like 25 miles guys,relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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