showmethesnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NAM missing the mid-atlantic but hitting up to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This is about the height of the storm... http://www.nco.ncep....ef_x24_054s.gif Sub-980 at its closest approach..... http://www.nco.ncep....ef_bsp_045s.gif Chesapeake Bay ...............FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 13z ruc.. looks nice, digging deep and sharper trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 From mid-Atl view, certainly can't complain about a track from LA/GulfMex coast to OBX ... only concern I have at this point is the "75 miles either way" drill after OBX, which could factor into the the difference between 1-3" vs 4-8"+ for I-95 corridor. W-ward trend has alleviated some of that concern. Heck, it's Xmas morning and snowing outside... with prospects for snow into Mon morning and no commute to DC -- so it's all good. And I'll note over past hour snow -- still light --has become steadier, starting to stick on grill, deck rail and other colder surfaces. No complaints from Central MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 My track record with this storm has not been stellar but I don't believe the nam. It's 500h pattern is one that should give us a good storm, the upper trough is far enough east that it's hard to understand why the nam pulls everything so far east. I could see the euro solution but not the nam. And folks, the guru has spoken. That's all I need to hear. Thanks wes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Looks more neutral too or at least less positive... 13z ruc.. looks nice, digging deep and sharper trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 My track record with this storm has not been stellar but I don't believe the nam. Wes, let's make a list of every member who has had a good track record on this storm, which obviously has yet to verify anything. _______ _______ _______ Until the NAM began the western shift in yesterdays 12z and 18z.....most everyone here was posting in DT's thread telling him to keep his chin up. I think you and many others have called it like you see it, in terms of models, as well provided some insight based on experience. Who could ask for more? Not I... Happy Holidays! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I agree Wes. You know as well as anybody, how 500 patterns dictate precip. I would have thought DC would do a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The NAM's evolution from 12-18-24 is so strange, especially its precipitation field orientation...I thought for sure when I saw the surface low movement from 12 to 18 it was headed OTS...scared me for about a second and a quarter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Given the SREFS, GFS, ensembles, etc...The nam might be out to lunch...or it could score a coup It did well last event, no reason to think it may not once again. I should add though that last event many of the mesoscale models were similar to or slightly east of the NAM, this time they are west of it almost unanimously so that may indicate the NAM is not going to hit this one as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 SREFs continue to be bullish for down here. 1" line to my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I honestly think BWI area might be the cut off and it doesnt quite reach DC with the good stuff. NAM is not that farfetched and the gfs may just be over doing qpf a bit in the MA I dont get your point. You seem to think that the only two short rnage weather Models in the world are the GFS and the Nam... this is NOT Pick Model a or Model B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 If it is further west, then the big cities face p-type issues and the dry slot ... that would add yet another turn to this flip-flop forecast by that you mean New England since it sticks out so far .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I dont get your point. You seem to think that the only two short rnage weather Models in the world are the GFS and the Nam... this is NOT Pick Model a or Model B Yeah! Anyone post Albany's MM5 yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The NAM's evolution from 12-18-24 is so strange, especially its precipitation field orientation...I thought for sure when I saw the surface low movement from 12 to 18 it was headed OTS...scared me for about a second and a quarter Seemed to be tiny timing differences in individual elements that are behind it hosing a lot of the readers. It's pushing into eastern KY a weak weak feature by 6h that helps to flatten the flow a smidge as it rides up. At the same time it's a tick weaker/se with the s/w coming out of the gulf. Just enough to make a subtle difference. I have very little confidence at this stage in any of these solutions. If it's just the NAM that did this great, if all the models chase the precip up the coast some - that always scares me as sometimes it's a signal it will continue. Whatever the outcome if we see swings from the rest of the guidance way down the coast it's pretty pathetic at this range. EDIT: The ruc continues to play up that feature at 6h..it's flattening the flow a little each run. Minor I know just mentioning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It did well last event, no reason to think it may not once again. based on the short range guidance and the GFS/EURO/GGEM...would be a major coup if it was correct. and the end result isnt that much different outside of the MD-VA area which gets 'jipped". looks odd but who knows other models were showing solutions similar to this on and off the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'd hate to bang the weenie drum, but the SREF ensembles are quite bullish on blizzard conditions down the NY bight and over cape cod. We know this is gonna be a cold and powdery event too. Could see major drifting and coastal flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LehighValleyDad Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I dont get your point. You seem to think that the only two short rnage weather Models in the world are the GFS and the Nam... this is NOT Pick Model a or Model B DT ..... glad to see you back on here today. The roller coaster ride of the last 5 days has me saying " what the fook?" with regards to all the model swings, and it will be very interesting to see how this all plays out now. What are your current thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 If it is further west, then the big cities face p-type issues and the dry slot ... that would add yet another turn to this flip-flop forecast Dryslot or sleet is possible but I'm not sure even about the sleet even though I considered that earlier last night, 4/6/82 and 12/25/02 are two examples of a deep low very very close to the NJ coast and NYC stayed all snow in 82 and WAS snow at the time the low was positioned there in the case of 12/25/02....LI has an easier ability to get away with changeovers in these events than New England does because the orientation of the coastline for LI/CT is not very conducive to coastal front development as it is in New England so often only the Twin Forks or immediate south shore sees a sleet mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'd hate to bang the weenie drum, but the SREF ensembles are quite bullish on blizzard conditions down the NY bight and over cape cod. We know this is gonna be a cold and powdery event too. Could see major drifting and coastal flooding. I wouldn't want this to get too close to the coast as it really wraps up if I lived NJ on north.. The ocean is at it's warmest point in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Dryslot or sleet is possible but I'm not sure even about the sleet even though I considered that earlier last night, 4/6/82 and 12/25/02 are two examples of a deep low very very close to the NJ coast and NYC stayed all snow in 82 and WAS snow at the time the low was positioned there in the case of 12/25/02 The position of the low when the rain changed to snow on 12/25/02 caused ridiculous snow rates.. Just unbelieveable stuff.. Ya it was wet snow... this should be a bit drier... Talk about the definition of a blizzard....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NAM looks good for the folks up north. Doesn't think much of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 as long as the RGEM is different from the NAM, i wouldnt worry. esp if there is other support for snow. once the RGEM and NAM start to agree, then its time to worry. i dont think thats the case right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I wouldn't want this to get too close to the coast as it really wraps up if I lived NJ on north.. The ocean is at it's warmest point in the winter. Youre right. In fact people overlooked how the 6z GFS actually brought the 850 0c line over ACY and nearly swamped long island. Its definately gonna cut it close. probably as close as Feb 2006 came, which pulled a tight NJ coast loop much like this is supposed to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 For those worried about dryslots, do not look at where the precip field appears to have it, those are covering 6 hour periods, look to see if you are situated between the 700mb low center and the surface low at any time...that tends to be your dryslot zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The NAM is an outlier right now with a weird surface presentation. I wouldn't worry about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 by that you mean New England since it sticks out so far .... DT when will you be doing a first call? ...and from your post i take it you don't think ptype issues will be a problem from nyc and west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The NAM is an outlier right now with a weird surface presentation. I wouldn't worry about it. the fact of the matter is, no matter how big of a storm, there always seems to be one model that is really late to the party this time its the NAM, that's all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 the fact of the matter is, no matter how big of a storm, there always seems to be one model that is really late to the party this time its the NAM, that's all If you take all the forecast models around and asked me though which one would I most likely trust to win inside 36 hours if it was showing a varied solution, I'd pick the NAM by a mile over all others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noctilucent Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Last year, I think it was for the first February event, the NAM had my area in a "warm/drier" slot. Everyone thought it was just a weird NAM blip or bias (too warm). Turned out to be exactly what happened as I had 6 hours of freezing drizzle. Its solution should not be written off. Still a decent hit for MBY if it verifies. Its gonna be "fun". Merry Christmas to ALL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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