NortheastPAWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 SREFs lead this show...through hr42. http://www.nco.ncep....ef_bsp_042s.gif http://www.nco.ncep....ef_x06_042s.gif http://www.nco.ncep....ef_x24_042s.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 This is about the height of the storm... http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/sref/09/images/sref_x24_054s.gif Sub-980 at its closest approach..... http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/sref/09/images/sref_bsp_045s.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 1:51 PM, PSUHazletonWx said: This is about the height of the storm... http://www.nco.ncep....ef_x24_054s.gif Sub-980 at its closest approach..... http://www.nco.ncep....ef_bsp_045s.gif much like the GFS depiction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 1:51 PM, PSUHazletonWx said: This is about the height of the storm... http://www.nco.ncep....ef_x24_054s.gif Sub-980 at its closest approach..... http://www.nco.ncep....ef_bsp_045s.gif Looking at the spread to the west you have got to wonder if this will trend even farther to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NAM at 15hr, not much changes from 6z that I can tell, maybe it will end up slightly east but we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 1:58 PM, Bostonseminole said: NAM at 15hr, not much changes from 6z that I can tell, maybe it will end up slightly east but we will see. Its digging more than 6z at 12 hours, albeit slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poleshiftnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yes she digging harder on this run should be closer to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 18hrs, already a closed 850 low has developed over SC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxClimate Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 1:51 PM, PSUHazletonWx said: This is about the height of the storm... http://www.nco.ncep....ef_x24_054s.gif Sub-980 at its closest approach..... http://www.nco.ncep....ef_bsp_045s.gif On 12/25/2010 at 1:56 PM, showmethesnow said: Looking at the spread to the west you have got to wonder if this will trend even farther to the west. If it is further west, then the big cities face p-type issues and the dry slot ... that would add yet another turn to this flip-flop forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 2:02 PM, mitchnick said: 18hrs, already a closed 850 low has developed over SC! It should come west and be quite a bit wetter with the 850 so far west. You should be realy happy about the ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 2:03 PM, WxClimate said: If it is further west, then the big cities face p-type issues and the dry slot ... that would add yet another turn to this flip-flop forecast I think the big cities in the NE would be more prone to that concern vs. MA however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 2:04 PM, usedtobe said: It should come west and be quite a bit wetter with the 850 so far west. You should be realy happy about the ensemble mean. Merry Christmas Wes! yes, its looking great I said yesterday, if you recall, we'll need a 1/25/00 style change and it looks like we may get it...to my surprise I may add! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 closed off 5H at 24hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 2:03 PM, WxClimate said: If it is further west, then the big cities face p-type issues and the dry slot ... that would add yet another turn to this flip-flop forecast My thought as well. Was looking at the water vapor loop and the short waves and thinking that this was going to wind up quicker and come further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 2:04 PM, mitchnick said: I think the big cities in the NE would be more prone to that concern vs. MA however Yeah, not too worried about either down here Anyway, not sure the NAM will be west..but upper levels look good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Still an eastern outlier. But without looking at previous runs I think this is trending west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NAM seems to continue to shove everything off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The NAM continues to say no way to this storm. How can it be this different this close to the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reale WX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 2:10 PM, stormtracker said: Yeah, not too worried about either down here Anyway, not sure the NAM will be west..but upper levels look good slightly west.. and yes the upper levels do look better and they should judging by the current conditions and WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It to me shows a sign of convective feedback issues on the 500MB chart it has some extra stuff off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Given the SREFS, GFS, ensembles, etc...The nam might be out to lunch...or it could score a coup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reale WX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I honestly think BWI area might be the cut off and it doesnt quite reach DC with the good stuff. NAM is not that farfetched and the gfs may just be over doing qpf a bit in the MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 After looking at the 06Z the surface low is about in the same position but the through is deeper. 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The NAM is an east outlier until the very last minute for a lot of storms...I'll take every other model vs. the NAM at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 RSM is a huge hit at DCA/BWI as well NAM is goofy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 2:14 PM, Reale WX said: I honestly think BWI area might be the cut off and it doesnt quite reach DC with the good stuff. NAM is not that farfetched and the gfs may just be over doing qpf a bit in the MA Yeah, its possible that the SREFS,MM5, GFS and GFS ensembles might be wrong and the NAM is right, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 still trending west, so that is the positive even the 18z RGEM give BWI .5-.6" qpf P.S. some light flurries here now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 2:12 PM, EasternUSWX said: The NAM continues to say no way to this storm. How can it be this different this close to the storm? Looking at 30 hour 12Z NAM vs. 36 hour 06Z GFS, they aren't that different in the placement of the surface low. NAM though has the pressure pressure and precip fields enongated while the GFS shows a more typical precip pattern (to me). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 2:17 PM, stormtracker said: Yeah, its possible that the SREFS,MM5, GFS and GFS ensembles might be wrong and the NAM is right, lol My track record with this storm has not been stellar but I don't believe the nam. It's 500h pattern is one that should give us a good storm, the upper trough is far enough east that it's hard to understand why the nam pulls everything so far east. I could see the euro solution but not the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NYC-BOS on the business end of the NAM at 42... 976? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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