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12z model discussion


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This is about the height of the storm...

http://www.nco.ncep....ef_x24_054s.gif

Sub-980 at its closest approach.....

http://www.nco.ncep....ef_bsp_045s.gif

Looking at the spread to the west you have got to wonder if this will trend even farther to the west.

If it is further west, then the big cities face p-type issues and the dry slot ... that would add yet another turn to this flip-flop forecast

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It should come west and be quite a bit wetter with the 850 so far west. You should be realy happy about the ensemble mean.

Merry Christmas Wes!

yes, its looking great

I said yesterday, if you recall, we'll need a 1/25/00 style change and it looks like we may get it...to my surprise I may add!

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The NAM continues to say no way to this storm. How can it be this different this close to the storm?

Looking at 30 hour 12Z NAM vs. 36 hour 06Z GFS, they aren't that different in the placement of the surface low. NAM though has the pressure pressure and precip fields enongated while the GFS shows a more typical precip pattern (to me).

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Yeah, its possible that the SREFS,MM5, GFS and GFS ensembles might be wrong and the NAM is right,

lol

My track record with this storm has not been stellar but I don't believe the nam. It's 500h pattern is one that should give us a good storm, the upper trough is far enough east that it's hard to understand why the nam pulls everything so far east. I could see the euro solution but not the nam.

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