JetsPens87 Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 I'm telling you right now if you get the trough diving into the W like ensembles are showing it is going to push that heat our way and there will be places that hit 100. Only saving grace is there hasn't been a massive heat build to date yet. It's coming. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 4 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: I'm telling you right now if you get the trough diving into the W like ensembles are showing it is going to push that heat our way and there will be places that hit 100. Only saving grace is there hasn't been a massive heat build to date yet. It's coming. What, if anything could derail this? I admire your confidence in your call for heat this summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 11 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: What, if anything could derail this? I admire your confidence in your call for heat this summer. The GEFS shows how it's done (though it's quickly moving away from it). It dives the trough in similar to the EPS in the W but maintains troughiness in the E (it would be hot but not incredibly so like the EPS). EPS washes out the W ATL trough much quicker than the GEFS which jives well with the AN SST pool off the Atl coast and the higher heights towards Greenland and NATL. Other than that...not much. It's beyond true backdoor season by then so it would take a large scale pattern disruption to derail this at this point (e.g trough not diving into the W at all) but there is virtually no support for that outcome left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 An extended period of generally drier weather will commence tomorrow. Through early next week, temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s. There are some hints on the guidance that it could begin to turn warmer to perhaps hot after mid-month. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around May 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions are underway. The neutral ENSO will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the summer or perhaps early fall. The SOI was -26.92 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.756 today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 6 Author Share Posted June 6 Wow low 90s for central park for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 23 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: The GEFS shows how it's done (though it's quickly moving away from it). It dives the trough in similar to the EPS in the W but maintains troughiness in the E (it would be hot but not incredibly so like the EPS). EPS washes out the W ATL trough much quicker than the GEFS which jives well with the AN SST pool off the Atl coast and the higher heights towards Greenland and NATL. Other than that...not much. It's beyond true backdoor season by then so it would take a large scale pattern disruption to derail this at this point (e.g trough not diving into the W at all) but there is virtually no support for that outcome left. The reason I ask is that other posters were certain of winter weather patterns, always a week or 2 away. Obviously that never occurred(thankful tbh). I say bring on the heat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 1 minute ago, 495weatherguy said: The reason I ask is that other posters were certain of winter weather patterns, always a week or 2 away. Obviously that never occurred(thankful tbh). I say bring on the heat. Understandable. It's always tough long range to be honest. Once we got out of the one week period in Jan I always felt winter was over and there were others who did also. Doesn't make them more or less right this go around for predicting heat but the big indicators are all there and pretty convicted on it. I don't recall ensembles ever really bringing anything too promising inside of 2 weeks last winter. The heat starts to build next weekend. Its coming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 10 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: Understandable. It's always tough long range to be honest. Once we got out of the one week period in Jan I always felt winter was over and there were others who did also. Doesn't make them more or less right this go around for predicting heat but the big indicators are all there and pretty convicted on it. I don't recall ensembles ever really bringing anything too promising inside of 2 weeks last winter. The heat starts to build next weekend. Its coming. Understandable. Seems to me that people like to make bold predictions to increase their followers. You were one of the more sensible people with respect to winter. You followed your training, rather than try to put your desires ahead of what was being shown. Thanks for responding. I always enjoy your discussions 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 6 Author Share Posted June 6 11 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: Understandable. Seems to me that people like to make bold predictions to increase their followers. You were one of the more sensible people with respect to winter. You followed your training, rather than try to put your desires ahead of what was being shown. Thanks for responding. I always enjoy your discussions To be fair most indicators pointed to a mid Feb pattern change. Too many people assumed it was a guarantee though. I also did quite well from those 2 storms mid month even though we had very little cold air everything went right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: To be fair most indicators pointed to a mid Feb pattern change. Too many people assumed it was a guarantee though. I also did quite well from those 2 storms mid month even though we had very little cold air everything went right I understand. Predicting weather is incredibly difficult, especially winter/snow in the greater NY area. Seems the desire to pull followers trumps reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 6 Author Share Posted June 6 Just now, 495weatherguy said: I understand. Predicting weather is incredibly difficult, especially winter/snow in the greater NY area. Seems the desire to pull followers trumps reality There certainly are some who do that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 Let’s get the heat in here asap 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: There certainly are some who do that Seems to be even more difficult today, despite all the technology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 7 Author Share Posted June 7 22 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Let’s get the heat in here asap Hopefully some good storms accompany it 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 7 minutes ago, Dark Star said: Seems to be even more difficult today, despite all the technology. I agree. But one thought I always come back to is that it is really difficult to get real, prolonged winter weather around here. As someone who grew up in the largely snowless winters of the late 70’s and 80’s(save for a few storms)I am reminded of an explanation I heard from a meteorologist regarding cold and snow around here. Plainly put, it’s really difficult due to the maritime influence on our weather. I’m sure there are technical reasons which I do not know about or understand, but that’s it in a nutshell. Lots of factors have to fall into place. But we seem to have gotten away from the mindset after the very snowy early 2000’s. Seems to me that we had an incredible streak that was just not sustainable from a climate perspective. My .02 I know now is not the time to be discussing winter, but the mindset is the important thing to remember here. We have to be realistic in our expectations 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 As expected latest GEFS now washout any trough in the E completely and may even be hotter than the EPS now. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 Highs: ACY: 88 EWR: 87 PHL: 87 BLM: 86 New Brnswck: 86 TEB: 85 TTN: 84 JFK: 83 LGA: 83 NYC: 81 ISP: 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 29 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: As expected latest GEFS now washout any trough in the E completely and may even be hotter than the EPS now. Turning up the heat it appears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 nice little cold front passage tonight, beautiful outside with the breeze 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 Records: Highs: EWR: 97 (2021) NYC: 98 (1925) LGA: 95 (2021) JFK: 90 (1968) Lows: EWR: 43 (1945) NYC: 47 (1945) LGA: 49 (1945) JFK: 51 (2000) Historical: 1816 - The temperature reached 92 degrees at Salem MA during an early heat wave, but then plunged 49 degrees in 24 hours to commence the famous year without a summer . (David Ludlum) 1816: The temperature reached 92 degrees at Salem, Massachusetts during an early heat wave, but then plunged 49 degrees in 24 hours to commence the famous "year without a summer." Snow fell near Quebec City, Quebec Canada from the 6th through the 10th and accumulated up to a foot with "drifts reaching the axle trees of carriages." 1894 - One of the greatest floods in U.S. history occurred as the Williamette River overflowed to inundate half of the business district of Portland OR. (David Ludlum) 1894: One of the greatest floods in U.S. history occurred as the Willamette River overflowed to inundate half of the business district of Portland, Oregon. The river crested at 33.5 feet, the worst flood ever recorded in the city. 1975 - A tornado, reportedly spinning backwards (spinning clockwise), was sighted near Alva, OK. (The Weather Channel) 1977 - Severe thunderstorms with large hail and winds to 100 mph caused one million dollars damage around Norfolk, VA. A forty-two foot fishing boat capsized near the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel drowning 13 of the 27 persons on board. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Thunderstorms in southern California produced one inch hail at Mount Pinos, and marble size hail at Palmdale. Thunderstorms in southeastern Arizona produced heavy rain leaving some washes under four feet of water. Six cities in the north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date as readings soared into the upper 90s. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Seventeen cities in the north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including Williston ND with a reading of 104 degrees. Thunderstorms in Florida produced wind gusts to 65 mph which damaged two mobile homes northwest of Melbourne injuring six people. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms developing during the late morning hours produced severe weather through the afternoon and night. Thunderstorms spawned 13 tornadoes, and there were 154 reports of large hail and damaging winds. A strong (F-3) tornado injured six persons at Lorenzo, TX, and thunderstorm winds gusting to 100 mph killed one person at Glasscock City, TX. Softball size hail was reported at Lipscomb and Glen Cove TX. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 Just got another quick 1/4 inch of rain, today total 1.70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 Thankfully we won't be getting hoodie updates from @nycwinter 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 Thunderstorm here. 1.50” on the day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 The magnitude of any warm up will be dependent on how much of a trough remains to the east of New England. The smoothed ensemble means show less influence. But the OP runs have been showing a stronger closed low to our east. Since models can really struggle with closed lows beyond 5 days, the details will probably have to wait. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The magnitude of any warm up will be dependent on how much of a trough remains to the east of New England. The smoothed ensemble means show less influence. But the OP runs have been showing a stronger closed low to our east. Since models can really struggle with closed lows beyond 5 days, the details will probably have to wait. GFS OP moves that pretty quickly. With the feature diving into the W I have to agreement that's on its way out. Hard to get that to stick around now with a trough in the W unlike May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 i've noticed the euro tends to have a trough bias in that region in that range 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 77 / 59 and looking like a truly spectacular day today and a very beautiful weekend. Looking mainly dry and near normal the next week, could see some showers and rain trend in the Tue night (6/11) - Wed (6/12) period. Warmer by mid month with ridging building east. IF we do remain mainly dry the next week - the heat could turn impressive in the 6/16 and beyond period. Will need to watch for cutoffs undercutting the ridge. First week of the month near +5 for many - next 7 shoould shave that down to closer to +2 then the second half looking above normal lines June up similar to May or stronger +3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 13 hours ago, 495weatherguy said: I agree. But one thought I always come back to is that it is really difficult to get real, prolonged winter weather around here. As someone who grew up in the largely snowless winters of the late 70’s and 80’s(save for a few storms)I am reminded of an explanation I heard from a meteorologist regarding cold and snow around here. Plainly put, it’s really difficult due to the maritime influence on our weather. I’m sure there are technical reasons which I do not know about or understand, but that’s it in a nutshell. Lots of factors have to fall into place. But we seem to have gotten away from the mindset after the very snowy early 2000’s. Seems to me that we had an incredible streak that was just not sustainable from a climate perspective. My .02 I know now is not the time to be discussing winter, but the mindset is the important thing to remember here. We have to be realistic in our expectations Which is why I came up with the snow triangle for the NYC metro area... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 2 minutes ago, Dark Star said: Which is why I came up with the snow triangle for the NYC metro area... Very accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 36 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i've noticed the euro tends to have a trough bias in that region in that range Trough bias went from SW of country to NW Atlantic now? Haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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