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Areas affected...southern New England, southern New York State, eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 301744Z - 302344Z

Summary...Bands of scattered thunderstorm activity were moving quickly to the east, but also merging/training locally to produce spots of 1+ inch/hr rain rates at times. These rates could cause flash flood potential to increase through the early evening.

Discussion...Storms have deepened and expanded in coverage within a strongly unstable airmass across the discussion area over the past hour. The storms are aligned along and just ahead of a surface cold front across central PA/southern New York and were embedded in deep westerly flow, promoting 30-40 kt storm motions. Of particular concern, however, is the alignment of convection across Connecticut and southern New York favoring training, which has boosted rain rates into the 1-1.5 inch/hr range, threatening local FFG thresholds.

Models/observations are in general agreement that storms will continue to train/expand eastward while propagating southward/eastward toward more populated locales (including New York/northern New Jersey, Providence RI, and Boston). Not only are FFGs locally lower in some of these areas, but urban/hydrophobic surface may promote a local flash flood risk especially where rain rates exceed 1 inch/hr. Flash flooding is possible given the aforementioned scenario.
 

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7 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah it's a very close call whether our area will clear out. Northern NJ clearing out but central NJ looks to stay pretty cloudy. We're near the edge. 

Wasn't that pretty much expected though? I didn't think we were supposed to see much sun today

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10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It does seem to be brightening a bit

Yeah we won't completely clear out, but at least we'll have breaks.

Some cells starting to pop up further to the south in PA. We should have a decent shot at seeing something later today, but obviously it's far from a guarantee. 

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1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah we won't completely clear out, but at least we'll have breaks.

Some cells starting to pop up further to the south in PA. We should have a decent shot at seeing something later today, but obviously it's far from a guarantee. 

Parts of extreme snj got 8-10 inches of rain this morning. Crazy 

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Wow! 
 

Areas affected...northern NJ into western Long Island/NYC Metro vicinity

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 489...

Valid 301826Z - 302000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 489 continues.

SUMMARY...An intense bowing segment will move across northern New Jersey into western Long Island and the New York City metro vicinity over the next 1-2 hours. Damaging wind gusts are expected with these storms.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has rapidly intensified and developed into a bowing segment near the northern NJ/PA state line this afternoon. This activity will spread east/southeast over the next 1-2 hours into the axis of strong instability oriented over the northern Mid-Atlantic region. These storms have already produced gusts to near 50 kt and areas of wind damage. This activity is likely to continue producing severe/damaging wind gusts as storms spread across northern NJ and the New York City metro vicinity.

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6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Wow! 
 

Areas affected...northern NJ into western Long Island/NYC Metro vicinity

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 489...

Valid 301826Z - 302000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 489 continues.

SUMMARY...An intense bowing segment will move across northern New Jersey into western Long Island and the New York City metro vicinity over the next 1-2 hours. Damaging wind gusts are expected with these storms.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has rapidly intensified and developed into a bowing segment near the northern NJ/PA state line this afternoon. This activity will spread east/southeast over the next 1-2 hours into the axis of strong instability oriented over the northern Mid-Atlantic region. These storms have already produced gusts to near 50 kt and areas of wind damage. This activity is likely to continue producing severe/damaging wind gusts as storms spread across northern NJ and the New York City metro vicinity.

 

mcd1492.png

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