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19 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Hrrr has pretty heavy rain late tonight. 1"+ swath across parts of the area

We could set the daily PWAT record with values approaching 2.00” possible along with dewpoints near 70°.

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14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Hrrr did not have anything until after 6pm

Yep but there were other models that did show a few cells popping up this afternoon before the main show tonight. Anyway I hope we get a good soaking tonight .... the ground is very dry now. 

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6 hours ago, bluewave said:

The Euro seasonal just updated about an hour ago and is going wet this summer with plenty of tropical moisture input. So it looks like a warm and wet pattern rather than dry heat. Onshore flow and higher dewpoints with a drought feedback ridge near the Rockies and ridge near the Northeast. With very active tropical cyclone tracks undercutting the ridge.
 

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Feels like people have been honking about the threat for a significant east coast (north of FL) hurricane strike for several years now but it hasn't happened, and I don't think the issue has been the failure of the expected Atlantic patterns to materialize. Have we just been lucky?

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23 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yep but there were other models that did show a few cells popping up this afternoon before the main show tonight. Anyway I hope we get a good soaking tonight .... the ground is very dry now. 

Had a quick sunshower here, but your way looks good for this

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12 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Had a quick sunshower here, but your way looks good for this

It's pouring here right now. Good chance that we'll get some heavy rain later tonight, but it's good to get this downpour right now just in case tonight doesn't work out. 

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Showers, thundershowers, and periods of rain will likely arrive tonight and continue through tomorrow. A general 0.25"-0.75" rainfall is likely. In the wake of the system, temperatures will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s into the weekend.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around May 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions are underway. The neutral ENSO will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the summer or perhaps early fall.

The SOI was -18.70 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.425 today.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Gravity Wave said:

Feels like people have been honking about the threat for a significant east coast (north of FL) hurricane strike for several years now but it hasn't happened, and I don't think the issue has been the failure of the expected Atlantic patterns to materialize. Have we just been lucky?

A direct hurricane strike on Long Island New England with eye crossing the coast hasn’t happened since Bob back in 1991 and Gloria in 1985. Very big height rises east of New England from the summer into fall have been steering all the major cat 3-5 hurricanes toward Florida and the Gulf Coast. Sandy got forced inland near ACY due to the record block and phase and gave us the RFQ with the historic storm surge. We have had numerous other systems run inland to our south and dump record rains here. I am not sure how much longer this predominant hurricane and tropical storm track will continue for. But the old saying is that it only takes one so we always have to be on guard. 

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