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2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Either my air conditioner sucks or they cut the electricity. 

Your AC is probably fine. Just suffer with the rest of NYC during this ridiculous heatwave.

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23 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Max totals focused just south of Rt. 78.  Some winners and losers north of there across NNJ.

Check out the 5.5" over Hunterdon County.

Screenshot 2024-06-23 at 10.14.11 AM.jpg

.45 at the Chester Station. 1” in Peapack. So quite the spread in less than 5 miles. 

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17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

these whiners would have melted in my favorite heat wave of all time which happened in July 1993

People should look that up, we haven't had a heatwave like that since.

 

I remember that heatwave really well.

I was playing little league baseball in that heat. It was awful.

Temps over 100

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24 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Mid 90s already with full sun in south jersey. Ewr 91. 7 day heatwave 

And looks very likely that today is the last day of the heat wave, since tomorrow trended cooler. Just a 1 day interruption as we go back to the 90s for Tuesday and Wednesday. 

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2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Signal for strong ridge into the east next weekend , there was some trend to keep surge of heat, with brief NW(cooler flow) between next puh of ridging, with that may come more opportunity for storms.  

We have been seeing several competing influences in recent months with all the record marine heatwaves ongoing. We knew last summer was probably our best shot at seeing something closer to normal temperature wise with the very strong developing El Niño and record blocking pattern in Canada. This year the expectation was for much more heat as has been the case with El Niño to La Niña transitions in the past. But May broke out of the mold and we didn’t see the more typical low to mid 90s from later in the month into the start of June like in past transition years. 

This month featured a 598 dam ridge which tied the record from 2018 and 2013.  The initial heat earlier in the week went to our north in over the top fashion which has been common in recent years. As the ridge began to weaken the next surge of heat directly crossed our region with 100° record heat. It’s a little different from past years with this over the top warm ups to see such a quick reversal.

Now we are seeing more of a trough axis over SE Canada which recently experienced the all-time monthly and seasonal heat in spots. So we are getting several days of cooler weather focused in New England before another warm up. But we are back to an older pattern of heat arriving from the SW as the ridge axis shifts to our sound and west. Models are struggling exactly how far north each succeeding warm surge will get with plenty of convection focused just near or north of the 78 and 80 corridor.

The big question going forward is how much heat from the SW makes it into the region as we move into July. Many of the 100° Junes at Newark from the past were also preceded by warmer conditions than we got this late May into June. Some of the 100° Junes were actually the warmest part of the summer. But other years after the 100s in June went into even higher maxes later on. Now we have several competing marine heatwaves for forcing. So the extent of our heat going forward may come down to the placement of the convection riding over the top of the ridge. Where the boundary between major 95°+ heat and more clouds and convection sets up will determine the outcome. Plus we’ll have to see where the dominant Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane tracks set up as the season gets more active over time.
 

El Nino to La Niña transitions May 25 to June 7th Newark high temperature 

2024….89°

2016….96°

2010…95°

2005…91°

1998….90°

1995….91°

 

Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending May through September with 100° in June

 

2021 96 103 97 99 91 103

2011 92 102 108 98 88 108

1994 95 102 99 95 92 102

1993 93 102 105 100 100 105

1952 83 102 98 92 94 102

1943 92 102 95 97 93 102

1988 94 101 101 99 86 101

1966 83 101 105 95 91 105

2024 90 100 M M M 100

1959 92 100 93 96 93 100

1953 91 100 99 102 105 105

1934 93 100 98 90 85 100

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13 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

And looks very likely that today is the last day of the heat wave, since tomorrow trended cooler. Just a 1 day interruption as we go back to the 90s for Tuesday and Wednesday. 

I thought Tuesday was supposed to be cool too, these forecasts keep fluctuating.

Real cooldown comes Friday and beyond with temps in the 70s.

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1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

Is it possible yesterday’s storms could cause there to be less storm coverage today?

Much of yesterday’s convection had to do with the motion and location of outflow boundaries that were literally all over the place - particularly west of the city.  Today’s convection will be getting a boost from the forcing coming in ahead of the cold front later.

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10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We have been seeing several competing influences in recent months with all the record marine heatwaves ongoing. We knew last summer was probably our best shot at seeing something closer to normal temperature wise with the very strong developing El Niño and record blocking pattern in Canada. This year the expectation was for much more heat as has been the case with El Niño to La Niña transitions in the past. But May broke out of the mold and we didn’t see the more typical low to mid 90s from later in the month into the start of June like in past transition years. 

This month featured a 598 dam ridge which tied the record from 2018 and 2013.  The initial heat earlier in the week went to our north in over the top fashion which has been common in recent years. As the ridge began to weaken the next surge of heat directly crossed our region with 100° record heat. It’s a little different from past years with this over the top warm ups to see such a quick reversal.

Now we are seeing more of a trough axis over SE Canada which recently experienced the all-time monthly and seasonal heat in spots. So we are getting several days of cooler weather focused in New England before another warm up. But we are back to an older pattern of heat arriving from the SW as the ridge axis shifts to our sound and west. Models are struggling exactly how far north each succeeding warm surge will get with plenty of convection focused just near or north of the 78 and 80 corridor.

The big question going forward is how much heat from the SW makes it into the region as we move into July. Many of the 100° Junes at Newark from the past were also preceded by warmer conditions than we got this late May into June. Some of the 100° Junes were actually the warmest part of the summer. But other years after the 100s in June went into even higher maxes later on. Now we have several competing marine heatwaves for forcing. So the extent of our heat going forward may come down to the placement of the convection riding over the top of the ridge. Where the boundary between major 95°+ heat and more clouds and convection sets up will determine the outcome. Plus we’ll have to see where the dominant Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane tracks set up as the season gets more active over time.
 

El Nino to La Niña transitions May 25 to June 7th Newark high temperature 

2024….89°

2016….96°

2010…95°

2005…91°

1998….90°

1995….91°

 

Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending May through September with 100° in June

 

2021 96 103 97 99 91 103

2011 92 102 108 98 88 108

1994 95 102 99 95 92 102

1993 93 102 105 100 100 105

1952 83 102 98 92 94 102

1943 92 102 95 97 93 102

1988 94 101 101 99 86 101

1966 83 101 105 95 91 105

2024 90 100 M M M 100

1959 92 100 93 96 93 100

1953 91 100 99 102 105 105

1934 93 100 98 90 85 100

we also need to see if we can get away from this southerly flow that keeps Long Island from having consistent 90s, it's very annoying to be the part of the tristate area that is missing out on this.

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3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I thought Tuesday was supposed to be cool too, these forecasts keep fluctuating.

Real cooldown comes Friday and beyond with temps in the 70s.

We begin building heat again next Saturday and beyond. No 70s in the forecast. 

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