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23 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

only about a tenth imby

just to my north had .45

new brunswick just .08

 

pretty unimpressive in my parts given the reds and yellows on the radar

 

a case of the haves and have nots

?  Parts of branchburg got over 1.50" of rain just 11 miles north of you. I had .60 in Neshanic

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3 minutes ago, FPizz said:

?  Parts of branchburg got over 1.50" of rain just 11 miles north of you. I had .60 in Neshanic

it all stayed to the north and west

 

im in southern somerset in belle mead, brief shower from first storm and not much from 2nd

 

Hopewell i believe only had .07

 

Hillsborough Duke is 8 miles up the road and they got only .45 and nothing from the first storm

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1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Hrrr doesn't have any of the current activity

Yeah the HRRR did a terrible job for today. Earlier in the afternoon I was mentioning that the HRRR had much less convection than the NAM models. It had hardly anything. 12z run of 3km NAM did a good job showing the amount of convection, although obviously it couldn't correctly predict exactly where. It had the heaviest going to our south, but it did a good job showing that some areas would get a lot of rain unlike the HRRR. 

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Newark made it to 100° on Friday and Hillsborough-Duke reached 100° Saturday. Models have a 3rd day approaching 100° today in NJ. The combination of steep gradient, Ambrose Jet, and strong to severe convection pressing in from the west will produce very strong southerly flow this afternoon. All the guidance show widespread 30-40 mph gusts near the South Shore beaches. Some of the higher resolution models like the HRRR and NAM 3km have gusts approaching 50mph at the beaches later. Very rough surf and dangerous rip currents so the lifeguards will probably limit access to the water as the winds pick up.

 

IMG_0221.thumb.png.e4413165f455f10a3fcde32022f438de.png
IMG_0219.thumb.png.9d7a34eca8f590a62a0b2c560088a8c4.png

 

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83/ 73 - hazy and partly cloudy.  Some clouds and spotty showers around.  Only clouds would impact a 100 degree readings in the area.    Some showers possible overnight,  trough pushes through a brief 18 hour drier / cooler period that may break the heatwave in the warmer spots with mid - upper 80 degree readings (oasis in a sea of heat / humidity).  Heat returns Tue (6/25) - Thu (6/27)  with surge of >20c 850 MB temps Wed into Thu. The race to 100 on Thu will be close between storm/clouds on the approaching front.

Cooler later Thu and Fri (6/28) before ridging and more heat push into the area next weekend to close the month hot and humid.

 

Overall ridging into the east,  hot and humid and perhaps more chances for storms riding the periphery of the ridge fluctuating between the humid southerly and brief northwest flow.

 

6/17 - 6/27: Hot (oasis of cooler 6/24)
6/27 - 6/28: Cooler

6/29 - beyond : hot, humid

 

GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Newark made it to 100° on Friday and Hillsborough-Duke reached 100° Saturday. Models have a 3rd day approaching 100° today in NJ. The combination of steep gradient, Ambrose Jet, and strong to severe convection pressing in from the west will produce very strong southerly flow this afternoon. All the guidance show widespread 30-40 mph gusts near the South Shore beaches. Some of the higher resolution models like the HRRR and NAM 3km have gusts approaching 50mph at the beaches later. Very rough surf and dangerous rip currents so the lifeguards will probably limit access to the water as the winds pick up.

 

IMG_0221.thumb.png.e4413165f455f10a3fcde32022f438de.png
IMG_0219.thumb.png.9d7a34eca8f590a62a0b2c560088a8c4.png

 

 

Clouds the only monkey wrench in the 98 - 102 readings.

 

 

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Signal for strong ridge into the east next weekend , there was some trend to keep surge of heat, with brief NW(cooler flow) between next puh of ridging, with that may come more opportunity for storms.  

test8.gif

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You would never know what’s coming later at jones beach currently. Winds are moderate around 20 knots and wave height about 3’. As I have experienced many Ambrose jet events over the years it comes on hard around 3pm and peaks around 6, sometimes doubling in speed from 2-4. Wave heights can triple as well. Really hoping for some good rains later as well. If we get some good convection move into the abrose jet we potential for a giant roll cloud, which is the be of the most amazing meteorological events we have here.

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