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June 2024


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13 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Seems like tomorrow and Monday are better shots but who knows

Nam has activity tonight

Yeah unlike today where they're staying well north, a few pop ups can happen anywhere tomorrow. 18z HRRR has a couple cells right near our area, but of course at this point who knows where they'll pop up. Only about a 30% chance, so have to hope to get very lucky. 

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5 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Brutal. Thanks for the response 

I think the silver lining is that we haven’t had a legit drought here since 2001-2002 when NYC had actual water restrictions around D3. So chances are this is more of a dry vegetation issue like we have seen in recent years. I know D0 to D2 has resulted in brown lawns periodically. But more often than not, these periods ended with extremes in rainfall which were more impressive than the dry periods which came before them. I guess the big question now is specifically how much heat and dryer conditions will come before any shift to wetter? In any event a string of 90°+ days with 100°days thrown into the mix can really drop the soil moisture near the surface. 
 

IMG_0201.thumb.jpeg.a5358e04916b195d1fa91da65418282b.jpeg
 

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
0432 PM EDT FRI JUN 21 2024

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED AT NEWARK LIBERTY INTERNATIONAL 
AIRPORT...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 100 DEGREES WAS SET AT NEWARK NJ TODAY.
THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 100 DEGREES SET IN 1953.

RECORDS GO BACK TO THE YEAR 1931 AT THIS CLIMATE STATION.

ALL CLIMATE DATA ARE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY UNTIL REVIEWED BY THE 
NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION (NCEI).
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Today was the hottest day so far this summer in parts of the region. High temperatures included:

Bridgeport: 91°
New York City-Central Park: 94°
New York City-JFK Airport: 91°
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 97°
Newark: 100° (tied record set in 1953)

A long stretch of above to much above normal temperatures is now underway. A brief push of cooler air is likely toward the end of the month. More heat could arrive to start July.

Baltimore, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC are currently experiencing heatwaves.

Following New York City's 4th warmest spring and Philadelphia's 6th warmest spring, it is very likely that June 2024 will rank among the 10 warmest Junes on record in both cities. Records go back to 1869 in New York City and 1874 in Philadelphia.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall.

The SOI was -13.01 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.063 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.6° (3.6° above normal). That would make June 2024 the second warmest June on record.

 

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21 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah unlike today where they're staying well north, a few pop ups can happen anywhere tomorrow. 18z HRRR has a couple cells right near our area, but of course at this point who knows where they'll pop up. Only about a 30% chance, so have to hope to get very lucky. 

Yeah at least we'll have a shot, pretty much any day through Wednesday 

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27 minutes ago, psv88 said:

95 here today. Next two days look hot. We summer 

Yup, models underestimated the heat just away from the shore. Flow is also more westerly now. Hopefully we get a storm or two for the lawns because they’re starting to scorch. We have the worst of both worlds on the N Shore in the heat-we get the humidity plus the high temps. Around Sunrise Highway is where the difference really started today, but once the SSTs get into the 70s the barrier islands will roast too and these S winds drive them up. 

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