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June 2024


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The Euro has had an unrealistic warm bias recently and the GFS has been doing much better. So the GFS now has the potential for 100° heat in NJ on Sunday as the heatwave peaks. We have seen this frequently in recent years with the highest readings starting out to our north like we are seeing now. As the ridge begins to weaken we usually see our warmest temperatures since this allows more of a deep SW flow instead of SSE like recent days. Could also be a very strong Ambrose Jet for the beach goers on Sunday due to the big temperature gradient between NJ and Long Island.

 

IMG_0195.thumb.png.f43a110903946211ad016f038326def1.png

 

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A long stretch of above to much above normal temperatures is now underway. Newark and Washington, DC have now reached heatwave status.

Parts of Upstate New York, northern New England and Quebec experienced record heat today. Records included:

Albany: 94° (tied record set in 1995)
Bangor: 95° (tied record set in 1995)
Boston: 98° (old record: 96°, 1923)
Caribou: 96° (tied record set in 2020) ***Tied all-time record***
Manchester: 98° (old record: 96°, 1941)
Montreal: 92°/33.5°C (old record: 92°/33.1°C, 2001)
Quebec City: 92°/33.4°C (old record: 92°/33.2°C, 2020)

In addition, Bathurst, NB reached 100° (37.6°C). That set a new provincial record for June. The preliminary lows of 71° at Caribou and 80° at Burlington tied those cities' all-time record highest minimum temperatures.

Following New York City's 4th warmest spring and Philadelphia's 6th warmest spring, it is very likely that June 2024 will rank among the 10 warmest Junes on record in both cities. Records go back to 1869 in New York City and 1874 in Philadelphia.

Philadelphia will likely reach heatwave status tomorrow. There is a possibility that Philadelphia could go on to experience its longest June heatwave on record. The existing record is 7 days. That record was set during June 1-7, 1925 and tied during June 13-19, 1957. Philadelphia's records go back to December 1873.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall.

The SOI was -13.01 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.021 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.7° (3.7° above normal). That would make June 2024 the second warmest June on record.

 

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19 minutes ago, Cygnus X-1 said:

74 here on central Long Island. Windows open and AC off.

Kinda tired of the hype of warm weather in the seasons when it's normally warm.

It's not just about your backyard. Boston area was around 100 today and Burlington VT did not go below 80 last night. This is the equivalent of you yelling about the media going on about a northeast blizzard when you get rain while Boston, Hartford, and Albany are buried under 3 feet. 

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25 minutes ago, Cygnus X-1 said:

74 here on central Long Island. Windows open and AC off.

Kinda tired of the hype of warm weather in the seasons when it's normally warm.

Feel the same way when there are headlines about a blizzard in the winter?

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Some records for today:

·         Bathurst, NB: 100F/37.6C (new provincial June high temperature record)

·         Boston: 98F/36.7C (tied 6th highest June temperature on record)

·         Caribou, ME: 96F/35.6C (tied all-time record high)

·         Causapscal, QC: 97F/36.0C (new all-time record high)

·         Miramichi, NB: 99F/37.2C (tied highest June temperature on record)

·         North Cape, PE: 95F/34.9C (new all-time record and June provincial record)

·         Seboeis River near Shin Pond 5 NW, ME: 100F/37.8C (tied state monthly record for June)

Burlington (80) and Caribou (71) remain on track to match their all-time record highest minimum temperatures.

 

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56 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

66/62 here; crazy to see northern VT at 80

Yeah, the first two 80° minimums on record for BTV since 2018. Beating the previous record by 2°. That would be the equivalent of LGA having two 88° minimums over this period. 

 

Time Series Summary for Burlington Area, VT (ThreadEx) - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2024 80 0
- 2018 80 0
2 2001 78 0
- 1988 78 0
- 1923 78 0
- 1901 78 22
- 1896 78 0
- 1893 78 5
3 2022 77 0
- 2005 77 0
- 1995 77 0
- 1952 77 0
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80 / 66 and off to a faster launch pad.   Flow still with an around the ridge onshore component keeping those east and coastal on the fringe of theirr first / elusive 90s, but think some will get there, otherwise for inland places day 3 or 4 (the warmest spits). Only clouds and showers could break the heat streak Sat but looking very warm.  Mid - upper 90s today/ tomorrow,  recent dryness and full sun could push near records highs  on Sun as the > 20C 850mb come in on a strong SW flow ahead of the trough pushing  front through Sun PM.   Mon in between day but still warm upper 80s to 90s.   

A warmer push Tue (6/25) before a trough pushes through another front and cooler air breaks the heat by Wed (6/26) / Thu (6/28). 

 

A brief cooldown before warmer returns as ridging builds east.  Looks more warm - humid so we'll see if its more stormy.

 

Hot ; 6/17 - 6/27
Cooler : 6/28 - 6/30
Warmer - humid (hot) : beyond.

 

vis_nj_anim.gif

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