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June 2024


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1 hour ago, Dark Star said:

So this proves that the NWS Central Park temperature measurements are not representing what was intended?  Obvioulsy you can't "move" the location, but they better modify it soon.  Why are they so stubborn?

Just add Newark and Central Park, divide by two and this can be the average summer high temperature. :)

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1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Anyways, I wouldn't get too worked up over one reading from 1936. The same people who blab on about "it's only summer" and cry about the shading color of the weather map would be saying the same thing about that summer. And, to be quite honest, I think they would have a point. They say it's the hottest summer on record, but this looks like a summer of yesteryear to me (outside of a 1-week hot stretch).

June 1936

Central Park

image.png.c3f131712be9c03e298d6de06503cd49.png

Weather Bureau Office

image.png.c1b9b3c2826cfeeb16f7bc489aeda8fb.png

July 1936

Central Park

image.png.ddd6cf9a482dcdadb73675f81dd5f560.png

Note: Excluding the 7 days from July 8 to July 14, the means are 83.1F/64.5F and 73.8F average for the other 24 days.

Weather Bureau Office

image.png.a276dc5d23e615c2b3ed99af03d4594a.png

August 1936

Central Park

image.png.da6dbe2ba4d4c64cc4f6b737985668e9.png

Weather Bureau Office

image.png.449302515555408f27538267d6554a3b.png

dustbowl days...

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3 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Just add Newark and Central Park, divide by two and this can be the average summer high temperature. :)

maybe they should put the censor in the middle of the concrete at laguardia so it can match newark... 

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2 hours ago, Poker2015 said:

You didn't hit 90 yesterday? All the stations on my end of town were 90-92.

Mine isn't updating online for some reason, but working...

Definitely hotter so far today 

Nope 88.  The ones by me were all 88 and 89.  93 today though.  These are the stations I compare to.  I'm lucky one is like 7 houses down.

 

image.thumb.png.f7b76c62345f52876f267224bc32586d.png

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1 minute ago, FPizz said:

I hit 102 for the heat index when I was at 93 degrees earlier.  

yep up to 101 here now....this seems unexpected, werent they saying heat indices would stay in the mid 90s

 

mt holly is calling for 90 or above through at least next Tuesday for our area so this could be a 9-10 day heatwave...quite rare for June

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A long stretch of above to much above normal temperatures is now underway. Parts of the region could experience their first heatwave of the summer this week. Newark should reach heatwave status tomorrow.

The most anomalous heat will affect the Great Lakes region, Upstate New York, southern Canada, and northern New England. The potential exists for Burlington to make a run at 100° at the height of the heat and Caribou to approach or reach 96°.

Following New York City's 4th warmest spring and Philadelphia's 6th warmest spring, it is very likely that June 2024 will rank among the 10 warmest Junes on record in both cities. Records go back to 1869 in New York City and 1874 in Philadelphia.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall.

The SOI was +0.07 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.933 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 95% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.5° (3.5° above normal). That would make June 2024 the second warmest June on record.

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3 hours ago, Dark Star said:

So this proves that the NWS Central Park temperature measurements are not representing what was intended?  Obvioulsy you can't "move" the location, but they better modify it soon.  Why are they so stubborn?

There were several news reports in the local media back around 2003 when non NWS forecasters were noticing how much Central Park started to deviate from past performance. They interviewed the MIC at the NWS at Upton and he basically told them he knew that the readings at the park wouldn’t be as reliable but settled for it since the other option offered to them was to close down the Central Park station. So they chose to live with inaccurate temperatures and other measurements rather than retire the station after the NWS moved out to Upton in 1993. So the media lost interest in the temperature issue since then which has only grown worse with further tree and vegetation growth close into the sensor. But to Lonnie’s credit he went there and measured the snowfall himself during the storm last winter and got the higher total since the conservancy measured too late and the snow settled. Maybe one of these days an enterprising journalist will explore the temperature issues when the trees are fully leafed out. The NWS probably doesn’t want to touch this issue after all this time since it could call into question the reliability of the weather readings from the biggest city in the nation. 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

There were several news reports in the local media back around 2003 when non NWS forecasters were noticing how much Central Park started to deviate from past performance. They interviewed the MIC at the NWS at Upton and he basically told them he knew that the readings at the park wouldn’t be as reliable but settled for it since the other option offered to them was to close down the Central Park station. So they chose to live with inaccurate temperatures and other measurements rather than retire the station after the NWS moved out to Upton in 1993. So the media lost interest in the temperature issue since then which has only grown worse with further tree and vegetation growth close into the sensor. But to Lonnie’s credit he went there and measured the snowfall himself during the storm last winter and got the higher total since the conservancy measured too late and the snow settled. Maybe one of these days an enterprising journalist will explore the temperature issues when the trees are fully leafed out. The NWS probably doesn’t want to touch this issue after all this time since it could call into question the reliability of the weather readings from the biggest city in the nation. 

 

2006 was probably the largest contrast between Central Park, EWR and Laguardia for 90 degree days of the season.

NYC: 8
EWR: 27
LGA:  22

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So far 91F EWR, 86 NYC, LGA, and 80F JFK, ISP are reported maxima.

also... 91F PHL, 94F DCA CLE ORD, 92F IAD, BWI

Looks like a "bog standard" June event so far, very similar to a spell in 1929 at same point. 

I accept NYC is reading a bit lower nowadays but an adjustment to 88 or possibly 89 is probably "comparable" to past data. I suppose it's better to see trees growing in CP, compared to alternative of steady state urban warming environment. After all, a lot of effort is going into cooling climate, so every little bit is good (except for our academic interests). Based on extensive studies of Toronto climate, I see a similar but less dramatic effect on downtown Toronto temps in a parkland setting similar to CP, it may be a fairly widespread situation in large cities in parks created a century ago and resulting planned tree canopy spreadouts. So it raises question, is it really "wrong" to take NYC as measurement, or is it just reflecting a new (and improved) environment in midtown locations? Probably a bit of (a) and (b). 

But if we all agree, NYC +1 or +2 is directly comparable during April to October warm spells, and closer to zero adjustment required outside of warm spells, we all understand comparisons to past events. 

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