June 2024

[donsutherland1]

A long stretch of above to much above normal temperatures is now developing. Parts of the region could experience their first heatwave of the summer this week.

The most anomalous heat will affect the Great Lakes region, Upstate New York, southern Canada, and northern New England. The potential exists for Burlington to make a run at 100° at the height of the heat and Caribou to approach or reach 96°.

Following New York City's 4th warmest spring and Philadelphia's 6th warmest spring, it is very likely that June 2024 will rank among the 10 warmest Junes on record in both cities. Records go back to 1869 in New York City and 1874 in Philadelphia.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.155 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 94% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.5° (3.5° above normal). That would make June 2024 the second warmest June on record.

 

[Allsnow]

Euro has high’s below normal for the weekend now? 

[MJO812]

18 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro has high’s below normals for the weekend now? 

Good 

[Rjay]

EPS looks warm for the entire run

Hr 0-120

 

[Rjay]

Hr 126-360

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

EPS looks warm for the entire run

Hr 0-120

 

Gotta get those sea temps up to 80+ for that cat three that’s coming to decimate the Long Island power grid in September….

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

58 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Ambrose Jet certainly wasn’t a bust. JFK gusting to 40 last hour. Might want to avoid the S Shore beaches especially late afternoon this week. 

Currently cranking in south wantagh at my dad’s house. At least it’s relatively cool, I got cooked at jones today despite putting on sunscreen. Uv index must have been off the charts, I’m already ten. 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

4 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Not sure if the park cold get to 25+ days even  in a pattern like 2010, 1993 these days with the overgrowth which was the last time the park had more than 25 90 days. 

Of course it could and actually exceeded that number as recently as 2022.

WX/PT

[Rtd208]

High for the day was 92 here.

Current temp 84/DP 68/RH 62%

[Roger Smith]

June 3-day (or greater) spells of 90+ at NYC

Listed in order of total departure above 90 deg

Ties are broken by duration, and if equal in duration, by max value, and if equal after, by earliest to latest.

RANK _ YEAR __ days ____ Daily values 

_01 ___ 1925 ___ 3-7 ____ 94, 99, 99, 98, 96 (+36)

_02 ___ 1943 __ 25-28 __ 99, 96, 98, 92 (+25)

_03 ___ 1984 ___ 7-12 ___ 92, 94, 96, 95, 94 (+21)

_04 ___ 1963 __ 24-28 __ 90, 95, 96, 95, 94 (+20)

_05 ___ 1966 __ 27-30^__ 101, 93, 92, 94 (followed a non-qualifying interval in 2nd list below) 

_06 ___ 1957 __ 15-19 __ 93, 95, 96, 93, 92 (+19)

_07 ___ 2008 __ 7-10 ___ 94, 93, 96, 96 (+19)

_08 ___ 1952 __ 25-27 __ 99, 100, 90 (+19)

_09 ___ 1988 ___ 12-16 __ 90, 93, 96, 96, 92 (+17)

_10 ___ 1895 ___ 1-3 ____ 96, 96, 95 (five days incl 05-30 90, 05-31 96)

_11 ___ 1901 ___ 26-30 __ 91, 91, 93, 95, 95 (3 added days July 1-3, 100, 100, 94)

_12 ___ 1956 ___ 13-16 __ 91, 99, 94, 91 (+15)

_13 ___ 2021 ___ 27-30 __90, 92, 95, 98

_14 ___ 1899 ___ 5-8 ____ 94, 95, 94, 92

_15 ___ 1923 ___ 19-21 ___ 91, 98. 96 (22nd 82, 23rd 86, followed by int 21 below)

_16 ___ 1953 ___ 20-22 __ 97, 97, 91

_17 ___ 1891 ___ 15-17 ___ 96, 97, 92

_18 ___ 1888 ___ 22-24 ___ 93, 96, 96

_19 ___ 1880 ___ 24-28 ___ 93, 94, 91, 92, 94 (+14)

_20 ___ 1991 ___ 27-30 ___ 91, 96, 97, 90 

_21 ___ 1923 ___ 24-26 ___ 93, 97, 94

_22 ___ 1945 ___ 14-16 ___ 92, 93, 93, 93, 92 (+13)

_23 ___ 1941 ___ 19-22 ___ 91, 92, 94, 96

_24 ___ 1933 ___ 7-9 _____ 90, 95, 97 (+12)

_25 ___ 1929 ___ 17-20 ___ 92, 95, 94, 90 (+11)

_26 ___ 1973 ___ 9-12 ____ 92, 91, 95, 93

_27 ___ 1949 ___ 24-27 ___ 90, 91, 96, 93 __ follows a +4 non-listed int in 2nd group below

_28 ___ 1950 ___ 24-27 ___ 90, 93, 95, 92 (+10)

_29 ___ 1994 ___ 17-19 ___ 90, 92, 98

_30 ___ 1919 ___ 2-4 _____ 93, 92, 95

_31 ___ 2003 __ 24-27 ___ 93, 92, 93, 91 (+9)

_32 ___ 1921 ___ 21-24 ___ 92, 95, 90, 91

_33 ___ 1962 ___ 16-19 ___ 91, 91, 93, 93 (+8)

_34 ___ 1995 ___ 18-20 ___ 90, 93, 95

_35 ___ 1941 ___ 27-29 ___ 94, 91, 93

_36 ___ 2012 ___ 20-22 __ 94, 94, 90

_37 ___ 1943 ___ 19-22 ___92, 91, 90, 94 (23rd 87, 24th 87, followed by int 2)

_38 ___ 1983 ___ 12-15 ___91, 93, 91, 92 (+7)

_39 ___ 1930 ___ 3-5 ____ 92, 94, 91

_40 ___ 1959 ___ 8-10 ___ 91, 94, 92

_41 ___ 2017 ___ 11-13 ___90, 93, 94

_42 ___ 1909 ___ 24-26 __91, 93, 93

_43 ___ 1944 ___ 16-18 ___92, 91, 93 (+6)

_44 ___ 1966 ___ 4-6 ____90, 95, 90 (+5)

_45 ___ 1906 ___ 28-30___90, 91, 94

_46 ___ 2010 ___ 27-29 __ 91, 93, 91

_47 ___ 1876 ___ 25-28 __ 91, 91, 92, 90 (+4)

_48 ___ 1872 ___ 28-30 ___90, 91, 93 ____ (five added days July 1-5 92 96 94 94 93)

_49 ___ 1965 ___ 21-24 ___ 90, 91, 93

_50 ___ 1999 ___ 26-29 ___91, 90, 91, 90 (+2)

_51 ___ 1922 ___ 7- 9 ____ 90, 91, 90 (+1)

_52 ___ 1976 ___ 9-11 ____ 91, 90, 90

^ 1966 interval followed by 87 July 1 and 100, 103, 98 July 2-4)

(05-29 to June 1st 1987 96, 97, 94, 93 would rank 6 (7 if 1895 extended, 10 if July add-ons also counted) above, but does not qualify for lists, 78 and 66 June 2-3)

________________________________

Following intervals of 3+ days would be in list if only criterion was total departure from 90. ... includes all 3-day intervals not in list above w/ average > 90.0 ... no intervals included if one day outside June is required (e.g. June 29-July 1 1931 was 87, 95, 92, and June 29 to July 3 1934 was equivalent to +21, June-July 1901 spell would rank first if July days included).

I added ranks if following spells are integrated into above list in regard to total departures above 90. Ranks are given as additional not inclusive, for instance, first in list ranks 24a, as it equals spell 24 above (+12). An integrated ranking would add to list above for every case below. For instance, spell 25 above would be 26 and 24a below would be 25 (if we always placed equal spells below in lower rank).

Rank __ dep __ interval

24a ___ +12 _ June 20 (21) -22 (23) __ 87, 97, 98, 87

31a ____ +9 ___ June 27-30, 1964 __ 94, 86, 90, 99 (followed by 99, 91, 93 July 1-3)

39a ____ +7 ___ June 12-14, 1892 __ 88, 95, 94

43a ____ +6 ___ June 7 (8)-9 (10) 2011 __ 87, 94, 95, 87

43b ____ +6 ___ June 28-30, 1969 __ 96, 89, 91

43c ____ +6 ___ June 23-25 1966 __ 94, 94, 88 (82 June 26 then int 5 in list above)

44a ____ +5 ___ June 19-21, 1893 __ 91, 95, 89

48a ____ +4 ___ June 28-30, 1934 __ 82, 101, 91 (July 1-3 92, 93, 94)

48b ____ +4 ___ June 20 (21)- 22(23) 1949 __ 88, 95, 91, 88 (followed by int 27 in list above)

48c ____ +4 ___ June 26-28, 1953 __ 94, 92, 88

48d ____ +4 ___ June 7-9, 1999 ____ 94, 93, 87

48e ____ +4 ___ June 28-30, 2012 __ 88, 93, 93 (94 on July 1)

49a ____ +3 ___ June 19-21, 1931 __ 90, 97, 86

49b ____ +3 ___ June 18-20, 1987 __ 88, 89, 96

49c ____ +3 ___ June 17-19, 1991 __ 87, 91, 95

49d ____ +3 ___ June 27-29, 1944 __ 91, 89, 93

50a ____ +2 ___ June 27 (28) -29 (30) 1874 __ 83, 91, 98, 83

50b ____ +2 ___ June 12-14, 1961 __ 88, 96, 88

50c ____ +2 ___ June 13-15, 1994 __ 84, 92, 96 (82 June 16th, then int 29 in list above)

50d ____ +2 ___ June 15-17, 1991 __ 92, 94, 86

50e ____ +2 ___ June 4-6, 1923 ___ 89, 92, 91

51a ____ +1 ___ June 24-27, 1946 __ 90, 89, 91, 91

51b ____ +1 ___ June 24-26, 1870 __ 91, 94, 86 

51c ____ +1 ___ June 3-5, 1940 ___ 88, 94, 89

51d ____ +1 ___ June 27-29, 1900 __ 92, 91, 88

51e ____ +1 ___ June 9-11, 2000 ___ 87, 92, 92

51f ____ +1 ___ June 23-25, 2013 __ 88, 92, 91

______________

97, 93 June 29-30 1959 failed to qualify even in group two (77 June 28 and 78 July 1)

90, 97, 96 June 29 to July 1 1945 also failed (82 June 28) but would be ranked 24 if counted using July 1.

========================

Will track June 2024 spell and see if it fits into list(s) or not. 

Counting group two, 79 spells of 3+ days averaged > 90.0F so, on average, they occur every other year, but several years have two or three, so frequency of years is about 70/155. 

 

This is one cli-stat that is not increasing in frequency, in fact, it appears to be dropping off (and it is likely not only due to tree canopy issue at NYC). June hot spells have not been very frequent or impressive in past three decades really. 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 92
TEB: 89
PHL: 89
New Brnswck: 88
TTN: 87
BLM: 86
LGA: 84
ACY: 84
NYC: 83
JFK: 80
ISP: 78

 

[SACRUS]

51 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Of course it could and actually exceeded that number as recently as 2022.

WX/PT

 25 at the park in 2022

Last time >25 was 2010 prior to then was 2002, 1995, 1993, 1991. 1988.,1980

 

2022:

PHL: 47 (Apr: 0 ; May: 3 ; Jun: 5; Jul: 19 ; Aug: 18 ; Sep: 2)
EWR: 49 (Apr: 0 ; May: 4 ; Jun 6 ; Jul: 20; Aug: 18; Sep: 1)
TTN: 31 (Apr: 0 ; May: 2 ; Jun: 1 ; Jul: 14 ; Aug: 14; Sep: 0)
LGA: 30 (Apr: 0 ; May: 3  ; Jun: 3; Jul : 11; Aug: 13; Sep:0 ) 
ACY: 33 (Apr: 0 ; May: 2 ; Jun: 3 ; Jul: 16; Aug: 12; Sep:  0 )
TEB: 35 (Apr: 0 ; May: 3 ; Jun : 3 ; Jul: 13 ; Aug: 16; Sep: 0 )
NYC: 25 (Apr: 0 ; May: 2 ; Jun:1 ; Jul:  10 ; Aug: 11; Sep: 1 )
JFK: 16 (Apr: 0 ; May: 1 ; Jun: 1; Jul: 9 ; Aug: 5 ; Sep: 0 )
ISP: 13 (Apr: 0 ; May: 2 ; Jun: 1 ; Jul: 5  ; Aug: 5; Sep:0 )

New Brunswick: 42 (Apr: 0 ; May: 3 ; Jun: 3; Jul: 17; Aug: 18; Sep: 1 )
BLM: 28 (Apr: 0; May: 4 ; Jun: 2 ; Jul: 12 ; Aug: 10) 

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 25 at the park in 2022

Last time >25 was 2010 prior to then was 2002, 1995, 1993, 1991. 1988.,1980

 

2022:

PHL: 47 (Apr: 0 ; May: 3 ; Jun: 5; Jul: 19 ; Aug: 18 ; Sep: 2)
EWR: 49 (Apr: 0 ; May: 4 ; Jun 6 ; Jul: 20; Aug: 18; Sep: 1)
TTN: 31 (Apr: 0 ; May: 2 ; Jun: 1 ; Jul: 14 ; Aug: 14; Sep: 0)
LGA: 30 (Apr: 0 ; May: 3  ; Jun: 3; Jul : 11; Aug: 13; Sep:0 ) 
ACY: 33 (Apr: 0 ; May: 2 ; Jun: 3 ; Jul: 16; Aug: 12; Sep:  0 )
TEB: 35 (Apr: 0 ; May: 3 ; Jun : 3 ; Jul: 13 ; Aug: 16; Sep: 0 )
NYC: 25 (Apr: 0 ; May: 2 ; Jun:1 ; Jul:  10 ; Aug: 11; Sep: 1 )
JFK: 16 (Apr: 0 ; May: 1 ; Jun: 1; Jul: 9 ; Aug: 5 ; Sep: 0 )
ISP: 13 (Apr: 0 ; May: 2 ; Jun: 1 ; Jul: 5  ; Aug: 5; Sep:0 )

New Brunswick: 42 (Apr: 0 ; May: 3 ; Jun: 3; Jul: 17; Aug: 18; Sep: 1 )
BLM: 28 (Apr: 0; May: 4 ; Jun: 2 ; Jul: 12 ; Aug: 10) 

Yeah, the tree growth has gotten so dense over the last decade that NYC has set the record for longest streak not going over 98° since 7-19-12.

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature < 99 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	4351	2012-07-19 through 2024-06-16
2	4022	1966-07-14 through 1977-07-17
3	3260	1885-07-22 through 1894-06-24
4	2844	1903-09-19 through 1911-07-02
5	2212	1911-07-11 through 1917-07-30

 

[uofmiami]

43 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 25 at the park in 2022

Last time >25 was 2010 prior to then was 2002, 1995, 1993, 1991. 1988.,1980

 

2022:

PHL: 47 (Apr: 0 ; May: 3 ; Jun: 5; Jul: 19 ; Aug: 18 ; Sep: 2)
EWR: 49 (Apr: 0 ; May: 4 ; Jun 6 ; Jul: 20; Aug: 18; Sep: 1)
TTN: 31 (Apr: 0 ; May: 2 ; Jun: 1 ; Jul: 14 ; Aug: 14; Sep: 0)
LGA: 30 (Apr: 0 ; May: 3  ; Jun: 3; Jul : 11; Aug: 13; Sep:0 ) 
ACY: 33 (Apr: 0 ; May: 2 ; Jun: 3 ; Jul: 16; Aug: 12; Sep:  0 )
TEB: 35 (Apr: 0 ; May: 3 ; Jun : 3 ; Jul: 13 ; Aug: 16; Sep: 0 )
NYC: 25 (Apr: 0 ; May: 2 ; Jun:1 ; Jul:  10 ; Aug: 11; Sep: 1 )
JFK: 16 (Apr: 0 ; May: 1 ; Jun: 1; Jul: 9 ; Aug: 5 ; Sep: 0 )
ISP: 13 (Apr: 0 ; May: 2 ; Jun: 1 ; Jul: 5  ; Aug: 5; Sep:0 )

New Brunswick: 42 (Apr: 0 ; May: 3 ; Jun: 3; Jul: 17; Aug: 18; Sep: 1 )
BLM: 28 (Apr: 0; May: 4 ; Jun: 2 ; Jul: 12 ; Aug: 10) 

 

2022 had 24:

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/90DegreeDays.pdf

Edit:  Someone needs to contact OKX, their CF6 for May 2022 has 2 90+ degree days, yet their PDF list says only one day in May.  5/21 & 5/31 both hit 90+

 

[psv88]

Hi of 82 today, 71 now with a tropical breeze 

[jm1220]

JFK still gusting to 30 last hour.

[psv88]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

JFK still gusting to 30 last hour.

25 at FRG. Definitely still gusting into the 20s here. Great week for sailing 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

1 hour ago, uofmiami said:

 

2022 had 24:

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/90DegreeDays.pdf

Edit:  Someone needs to contact OKX, their CF6 for May 2022 has 2 90+ degree days, yet their PDF list says only one day in May.  5/21 & 5/31 both hit 90+

 

I knew this. There is no question in my mind that they had 26. There might be another missing too. I recall there was more than one in September.

WX/PT

[jm1220]

48 minutes ago, psv88 said:

25 at FRG. Definitely still gusting into the 20s here. Great week for sailing 

Was a nice breeze outside a couple hours ago for sure. GFS says we do the same for the next two days. The still cool ocean (Jones Beach water temp is at 66F) and hot land over NJ drive the strong breeze due to the resulting pressure gradient. Latest Euro and GFS have a backdoor front that approach later in the weekend so that would slam shut any "heat wave" east of the city. The immediate south shore might not even make it to the mid 80s in this stretch. I'd say it's 50-50 for north of the LIE making it to 90 on a day or two. 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Looking at the GFS tonight I think there's a developing possibility that Central Park may not hit 90 degrees all week into the weekend. Yes it still may be a long shot, but on the latest GFS maps the high pressure is too far north and it does not really move south, it moves east and what replaces by the weekend is a backdoor cold front, a weak one at that, but enough to  trigger showers thunderstorms and lots of clouds to keep temperatures down. We shall see about this.

WX/PT

[Dark Star]

6 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Looking at the GFS tonight I think there's a developing possibility that Central Park may not hit 90 degrees all week into the weekend. Yes it still may be a long shot, but on the latest GFS maps the high pressure is too far north and it does not really move south, it moves east and what replaces by the weekend is a backdoor cold front, a weak one at that, but enough to  trigger showers thunderstorms and lots of clouds to keep temperatures down. We shall see about this.

WX/PT

I must rally be losing all the rest of my memory.  I know Newark's temperatues are a "few" degrees warmer than NYC, but they are generally close.  Yes, NYC is closer to the ocean, but if Newark is in a heatwave, NYC is almost always in a heat wave.  Has something changed, or is it just that June can be an "unusual" month because the ocean temperatures are still cool, that this is an extremely specific sea breeze effect?  Again, if NYC gets ocean cooling, it normally reaches Newark?

[JetsPens87]

7 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

I must rally be losing all the rest of my memory.  I know Newark's temperatues are a "few" degrees warmer than NYC, but they are generally close.  Yes, NYC is closer to the ocean, but if Newark is in a heatwave, NYC is almost always in a heat wave.  Has something changed, or is it just that June can be an "unusual" month because the ocean temperatures are still cool, that this is an extremely specific sea breeze effect?  Again, if NYC gets ocean cooling, it normally reaches Newark?

Central Parks temp sensor is in the middle of a forest and should never be used for gauging a heat wave.

[bluewave]

Good to see others pointing out the unrealistically high Euro temperatures which were over 105° in spots and have been backing off each run. 

 

[JustinRP37]

While still hot and much above average, the Euro completely failed with temps this week. Even the "over the top" warming looks less impressive. Most of the city will struggle to get 3+ days in the 90s. I do not think the park will see a heat wave. Looking forward though it looks like the cool mornings are over and we are in the Florida like dew period we have become accustomed too. 

[qg_omega]

She’s gone 

[winterwarlock]

hit 90 yesterday (my first of the season) to start my heatwave unofficially that will likely be 7-9 days

[nycwinter]

28 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

I must rally be losing all the rest of my memory.  I know Newark's temperatues are a "few" degrees warmer than NYC, but they are generally close.  Yes, NYC is closer to the ocean, but if Newark is in a heatwave, NYC is almost always in a heat wave.  Has something changed, or is it just that June can be an "unusual" month because the ocean temperatures are still cool, that this is an extremely specific sea breeze effect?  Again, if NYC gets ocean cooling, it normally reaches Newark?

yesterday newark was 90 central park cooler not because the heat sensor in the park is oovered up by a lot of grass but because of the southerly flow off the ocean that kept the city cooler...

[Rtd208]

5 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

yesterday newark was 90 central park cooler not because the heat sensor in the park is oovered up by a lot of grass but because of the southerly flow off the ocean that kept the city cooler...

The high temp yesterday at EWR was 92

[bluewave]

31 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

Central Parks temp sensor is in the middle of a forest and should never be used for gauging a heat wave.

When they set up the new ASOS back in 1995 it moved under the trees and into the deep shade. It used to get direct sunlight before the move. That’s why NYC used to more in line with Newark before the move. There were some heatwaves like July 1977 when NYC was hotter than Newark. Back in the 1970s before the tree growth in Central Park NYC averaged only 3 fewer 90° days a season than Newark. Now the number has grown to 13° fewer. There is no reason that NYC should have the same amount of 90° days it had back the 70s as it has today. 
 

Annual number of 90° days

1970-1979…..Newark….20…..NYC…..17

2014-2023….Newark…..33….NYC….17

 

 

 

 

[MJO812]

30 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

Central Parks temp sensor is in the middle of a forest and should never be used for gauging a heat wave.

Or measuring snow