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June 2024


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9 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Which Monday? Very unlikely the 24th. A cold front will likely have come through late on the 22nd or the 23rd.

WX/PT

As Stormlover mentioned, I'm talking this Monday. I think warm spots west of the city like my area and Newark could hit 90 and get the heat wave started tomorrow. We'll have to see about the timing of that front and if convection cuts it a little short, but it's possible that it can be an 8 day heat wave that goes through next Monday. 

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10 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I did that in August 1974 during a largely over the top heatwave. I remember enjoying the near or record warm temperatures at the Lakes of the Clouds Hut.

WX/PT

Did a section of the AT from near the Connecticut border into Mass, for a week during the summer of 2004.

The humidity was insane; nothing would dry. Couldn’t get a fire light as the wood was soaked. Aside from that, just a beautiful section of the trail. 

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3 greatest heatwaves I ever remember.

July 15th 1995..I mean a high of 102 with dews in the low 80's does the trick. The hottest day I can ever remember. Many old people in Chicago died.

July 1977..2 weeks of wicked heat..CP went over 100 3 times in a two week stand. 104 was the highest, also no air conditioning for one night because of the black out..Son Of Sam was roming the streets.

July 1966..Hot town Summer in the city..Was up in the Catskills but no relief..Temps topped in the upper 90's and reached 100 a few times. We'll see how this heatwave goes..stay cool everybody!

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1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

this is like getting a blizzard every day for 8 days

Its a bit out there but the longer term has a more humid look by the end of the month.

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17 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Its a bit out there but the longer term has a more humid look by the end of the month.

 

I think it's way to early to know for sure but it does now feel as though we are entering a 1966 type summer pattern. On the shorter range guidance however, the heat initially goes over the top. I'm noting on NAM that Burlington and Albany are the hottest spots on Tuesday and even Boston is warmer than NYC. So NYC may barely make it to 90 on Tuesday while the other locations easily get there. By Thursday or Friday mid-upper 90s are likely for most of the area.

WX/PT

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26 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I think it's way to early to know for sure but it does now feel as though we are entering a 1966 type summer pattern. On the shorter range guidance however, the heat initially goes over the top. I'm noting on NAM that Burlington and Albany are the hottest spots on Tuesday and even Boston is warmer than NYC. So NYC may barely make it to 90 on Tuesday while the other locations easily get there. By Thursday or Friday mid-upper 90s are likely for most of the area.

WX/PT

Correcting myself after viewing the 12Z GFS. Daily high temps NYC

Mon-84

Tues-89

Wed-91

Thurs-93

Fri-94

Sat-88

Sun-89

So you have a 3-day garden variety heatwave in NYC. Readings are for Central Park.

WX/PT

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1 hour ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Correcting myself after viewing the 12Z GFS. Daily high temps NYC

Mon-84

Tues-89

Wed-91

Thurs-93

Fri-94

Sat-88

Sun-89

So you have a 3-day garden variety heatwave in NYC. Readings are for Central Park.

WX/PT

 

Add 3 for LGA and 5-6 for EWR/New Brnswck areas. This next weekend, pending on clouds will be as hot

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3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Thinking all this early heat will juice up ssts and provide a lot of energy for the tropics. 

Think mid-late summer (August-September) becomes very active. 

We’re trading less heat now east of the city for a swampy later July/Aug when these southerly winds ramp up the SSTs and humidity in later heat waves. And yes it also helps tropical systems survive further north. 

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25 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

As hot as it'll get here, the real record heat is further north. 

It's crazy that this will be the last comfortable day until who knows when. 

Thu /Fri could challenge some records here.

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16 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I did that in August 1974 during a largely over the top heatwave. I remember enjoying the near or record warm temperatures at the Lakes of the Clouds Hut.

WX/PT

One of the greatest views I've had while taking a dump was at Lake of the Clouds Hut.

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The heat will begin to build tomorrow and a long stretch of above to much above normal temperatures will develop. Parts of the region could experience their first heatwave of the summer this week.

The most anomalous heat will affect the Great Lakes region, Upstate New York, southern Canada, and northern New England. The potential exists for Burlington to make a run at 100° at the height of the heat and Caribou to approach or reach 96°.

Following New York City's 4th warmest spring and Philadelphia's 6th warmest spring, it is very likely that June 2024 will rank among the 10 warmest Junes on record in both cities. Records go back to 1869 in New York City and 1874 in Philadelphia.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around June 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall.

The SOI was +8.08 yesterday.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.842 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 94% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.5° (3.5° above normal). That would make June 2024 the second warmest June on record.

 

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Mt holly snipped a few degrees off from earlier today where they were foreasting 98-100 from Tuesday to Friday in my parts but still

 

Monday
Sunny, with a high near 90. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 66. South wind 5 to 10 mph.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 95. Southwest wind around 5 mph.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 67. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm after midnight.
Juneteenth
Sunny, with a high near 96.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 69.
Thursday
Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 97.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 70.
Friday
Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 98.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 72.
Saturday
Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 98.
Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71.
Sunday
Partly sunny, with a high near 93.
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54 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

im expecting more dry heat IMBY...we have been quite dry the past couple weeks so the lawns will be yellow ala two years ago by the end of the week

Oh yeah. The lawns are toast by the end of the week unless your are watering religiously 

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