June 2024

[Nibor]

7 hours ago, forkyfork said:

 

I'm spending 6 days hiking in the White Mountains starting Tuesday. The further south this goes the better. I don't wanna die from heat stroke.

[winterwx21]

83 with a dewpoint of 46 here right now. Perfect weather this weekend. Nice that we can squeeze in a couple beautiful days here this weekend before the long heat wave. I hope everyone celebrating has a great Father's Day tomorrow. 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will end the weekend with abundant sunshine, low humidity, and comfortable temperatures. After staring in the low 60s in New York City and generally 50s outside the the City, the mercury will top out in the middle and upper 70s.

Afterward, a long stretch of above to much above normal temperatures will develop. Parts of the region could experience their first heatwave of the summer next week. The most anomalous heat will affect the Great Lakes region, Upstate New York, southern Canada, and northern New England. The potential exists for Burlington to make a run at 100° at the height of the heat and Caribou to approach or reach 96°.

Following New York City's 4th warmest spring and Philadelphia's 6th warmest spring, it is very likely that June 2024 will rank among the 10 warmest Junes on record in both cities. Records go back to 1869 in New York City and 1874 in Philadelphia.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around June 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall.

The SOI was +8.08 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.264 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 92% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.5° (3.5° above normal). That would make June 2024 the second warmest June on record.

 

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow will end the weekend with abundant sunshine, low humidity, and comfortable temperatures. After staring in the low 60s in New York City and generally 50s outside the the City, the mercury will top out in the middle and upper 70s.

Afterward, a long stretch of above to much above normal temperatures will develop. Parts of the region could experience their first heatwave of the summer next week. The most anomalous heat will affect the Great Lakes region, Upstate New York, southern Canada, and northern New England. The potential exists for Burlington to make a run at 100° at the height of the heat and Caribou to approach or reach 96°.

Following New York City's 4th warmest spring and Philadelphia's 6th warmest spring, it is very likely that June 2024 will rank among the 10 warmest Junes on record in both cities. Records go back to 1869 in New York City and 1874 in Philadelphia.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around June 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall.

The SOI was +8.08 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.264 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 92% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.5° (3.5° above normal). That would make June 2024 the second warmest June on record.

 

Glad I won’t be in Albany. Since they downslope in almost any direction, it’ll scorch there for sure. Pretty good bet they hit 100 in this. 

[dmillz25]

I could see the park hitting 97-99 due to the dry conditions recently. EWR and LGA will probably hit 100

[Stormlover74]

18 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

I could see the park hitting 97-99 due to the dry conditions recently. EWR and LGA will probably hit 100

Nah 93 or 94

[dmillz25]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nah 93 or 94

If low temps are at 80 it can def happen 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, dmillz25 said:

If low temps are at 80 it can def happen 

If this heat wave features strong S winds or SSE no one in the city other than maybe the northern Bronx will be over 95. 90 may even be tough. The real heat for the city and east would be when there’s a westerly component to the wind. 

[LibertyBell]

On 6/10/2024 at 6:35 PM, gravitylover said:

Talk to LB

You forgot the extreme heat king @LibertyBell

 

I had .28 yesterday with a little bit of that overnight so didn't have to water today but the wind did a pretty good job of drying out the surface today. I'm sure the hanging plants will need watering tomorrow with the ground stuff probably good for another day or two. 

Last night was horrible I hope it doesn't rain for 4 weeks, I was without power for most of the night and so was my entire block.

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 101 (1994)
NYC: 96 (1994)
LGA: 96 (1988)
JFK: 93 (1988)


Lows:

EWR: 48 (1933)
NYC: 48 (1933)
LGA: 54 (1951)
JFK: 51 (1965)

 

Historical:

1662 - A fast was held at Salem MA with prayers for rain, and the Lord gave a speedy answer. (David Ludlum)

1879 - McKinney ND received 7.7 inches of rain in 24 hours, a state record. (The Weather Channel)

1896 - The temperature at Fort Mojave, CA, soared to 127 degrees, the hottest reading of record for June for the U.S. The low that day was 97 degrees. Morning lows of 100 degrees were reported on the 12th, 14th and 16th of the month. (The Weather Channel)

1953 - Dust devils are usually rather benign weather phenomena, however, two boys were injured by one near Prescott AZ. One of the boys suffered a black eye, and the other boy had two vertabrae fractured by wind-blown debris. (The Weather Channel)

1957 - East Saint Louis was deluged with 16.54 inches of rain in 24 hours, a record for the state of Illinois. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced severe weather in the northwestern U.S. A tornado damaged five homes and destroyed a barn near Salmon ID. It lifted a metal shed 100 feet into the air, and deposited it 100 yards away. Hail an inch and a half in diameter caused ten million dollars damage to automobiles at Nampa ID. (The National Weather Channel) (Storm Data)

1988 - Severe thunderstorms in the Central High Plains Region spawned five tornadoes around Denver, CO, in just one hour. A strong (F-3) tornado in southern Denver injured seven persons and caused ten million dollars damage. Twenty-six cities in the eastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. The high of 97 degrees at Portland ME was a record for June. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather over the Southern and Middle Atlantic Coast States. The thunderstorms spawned eight tornadoes, including strong (F-3) tornadoes which injured three persons at Mountville PA and four persons at Columbia, PA. There were 111 reports of large hail and damaging winds, including wind gusts to 80 mph at Norfolk, VA, and Hogback Mountain, SC. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1991: The second largest volcanic eruption of the 20th Century began as Mt. Pinatubo injected 15 to 30 million tons of sulfur dioxide 100,000 feet into the atmosphere. 343 people were killed in the Philippines as a result of the eruptions, and 200,000 were left homeless. Material from the explosion would spread around the globe, leading to climate changes worldwide as the sun's energy was blocked out and global temperatures cooled by as much as one degree Fahrenheit. 1992 was globally one of the coldest since the 1970s.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:
 

EWR: 85
PHL: 84
New Brnswck: 83
ACY: 83
BLM: 82
TEB: 82
LGA: 82
JFK: 82
TTN: 81
NYC: 80
ISP:  78

[psv88]

80

[winterwx21]

5 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nah 93 or 94

I agree. For our area I think we'll top out at about 97 late week. I also think there's a good chance our area will hit 90 on Monday, so we could be looking at a 7 or 8 day heat wave. Mighty impressive. 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

8 hours ago, Nibor said:

I'm spending 6 days hiking in the White Mountains starting Tuesday. The further south this goes the better. I don't wanna die from heat stroke.

I did that in August 1974 during a largely over the top heatwave. I remember enjoying the near or record warm temperatures at the Lakes of the Clouds Hut.

WX/PT

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I agree. For our area I think we'll top out at about 97 late week. I also think there's a good chance our area will hit 90 on Monday, so we could be looking at a 7 or 8 day heat wave. Mighty impressive. 

GFS has the heat maxing out here late week as the flow turns more westerly. Tue-Wed have a daily Ambrose Jet which will cap any high temps east of the city fast. West of the city away from the seabreeze is of course another story but the steep ridge will initially send the hottest temps upstate and New England before the ridge flattens.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

17 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I agree. For our area I think we'll top out at about 97 late week. I also think there's a good chance our area will hit 90 on Monday, so we could be looking at a 7 or 8 day heat wave. Mighty impressive. 

Which Monday? Very unlikely the 24th. A cold front will likely have come through late on the 22nd or the 23rd.

WX/PT

[Stormlover74]

40 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Which Monday? Very unlikely the 24th. A cold front will likely have come through late on the 22nd or the 23rd.

WX/PT

Starting this coming Monday going through at least Saturday 

[Pequest]

Won't be seeing this again for awhile. Mid to upper 40's this morning out here in the sticks of Warren and Sussex Counties. 

 

 

[bluewave]

13 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

I could see the park hitting 97-99 due to the dry conditions recently. EWR and LGA will probably hit 100

NYC hasn’t been able to get over 98° since late July 2013 since the vegetation got so thick. This is the longest streak on record. During the strongest heatwaves in recent years we had to subtract 2° to 5° off of wherever the max was at Newark.
 

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature < 99 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	4350	2024-06-15
2	4022	1977-07-17
3	3260	1894-06-24
4	2844	1911-07-02
5	2212	1917-07-30

[SnoSki14]

Temps should be able to overperform given relatively dry conditions and lower dews. 

I would add 2-3 degrees to the forecast. Peak sun angle too.

[gravitylover]

19 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Looks like our first completely dry weekend without at least a trace of rain since February 

The overnight rain Friday night/Sat morning counts as weekend wetness (IMO). 

[bluewave]

I think portions of New England have a shot at their all-time June warmest temperatures as this starts out in true over the top fashion with the subtropical ridge pushed much further north than usual. All-time max 500mb height records could also be challenged.

 

[SACRUS]

 

70 / 49 and a truly lovely day shaping up.  Upper 70s to near 80.  Strong ridge builds in Mon with the start of the heatwave in the warmer spots, others get there Tue.  Ridge now forecast to peak at 600DM just near NJ shore on Wed (6/19). Peak 850 MB >20C comes Thu (6/20) - Mon (6/24) with upper 90s or more and reords being challenged.  One of the stronger ridges as bluewave pointed out in our area  2013 (July) , 2001 (August), 2011 (July).   Looks like a trough swings a front through in the 6/25-26 timeframe before ridging builds back. Flow is pumping tremendous moisture into the GOM starting in TX then slowly moving east into the Mssspi valley.   Looking warm to humid to close the month under higher heights. 

[SACRUS]

 

Midway through June (15th) depwith a >+5 next 7 days coming up

EWR: +4
JFK: +3.9
PHL:+3.4
LGA: +2.4
NYC: +2.3
TTN: +2.1

[SACRUS]

 

heavy rain shifts from FL west to TX next week - lookw like the C-GOM the following

 

[SACRUS]

 

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 98 (1981)
NYC: 97 (1891)
LGA: 96 (1991)
JFK: 92 (1962)


Lows:

EWR: 52 (1946)
NYC: 52 (1927)
LGA: 55 (1961)
JFK:  55 (1965)

 

Historical:

1806 - A total eclipse of the sun was viewed from southern California to Massachusetts. (David Ludlum)

June 16, 1806: The great American total solar eclipse occurred from California to Massachusetts, nearly five minutes in duration.

1895: Heavy rain fell in portions of central Arkansas, damaging several roads and bridges. At Madding, east of Pine Bluff, 6.12 inches of rain fell in six hours.

 

1917 - The temperature soared to 124 degrees at Mecca climaxing the most destructive heat wave of record in California history. (David Ludlum)

1944 - A tornado in Sioux City, IA, traveled an odd course. It spun in one place for about twenty minutes, made a U-turn, traveled southeast for about three miles, then traveled south, east, north, and finally east again. (The Weather Channel)

 

1972: Agnes was first named by the National Hurricane Center on June 16, 1972: It would go on to make landfall between Panama City and Apalachicola, Florida, on the afternoon of June 19. Hurricane Agnes would later cause catastrophic flooding in the mid-Atlantic states, especially Pennsylvania. Agnes caused over 100 fatalities.

1987 - Temperatures soared above 100 degrees in the Upper Midwest, reaching 104 degrees at Lincoln, NE. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 96 mph at Valley City, ND, and baseball size hail near Red Oak, IA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - After a brief respite, hot weather returned to the Northern High Plains Region. Late night thunderstorms in Montana produced wind gusts to 70 mph at Polson and north of Lake Seeley. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Daytime thunderstorms produced severe weather from northern Florida to the Middle Atlantic Coast. The thunderstorms spawned eight tornadoes, and there were 138 reports of large hail and damaging winds. Thunderstorm winds gusting to 87 mph caused twenty million dollars damage at Columbia SC. Strong thunderstorm winds killed one person at McLeansville NC. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

 

1992: A devastating tornado ravaged portions of southwest Minnesota. Commonly referred to as the Chandler-Lake Wilson tornado, this tornado destroyed more than 75 homes, with another 90 houses, 10 businesses, a church, and a school damaged. In addition, the tornado caused over $50 million in property damage, resulting in more than 40 injuries and one fatality. Based on a detailed damage assessment by the National Weather Service, it is estimated this F5 tornado packed winds over 260 mph as it tore through the residential area of Chandler, Minnesota. This was the only F5 tornado to occur in the United States in 1992.

 

2014: The Pilger tornado was the most intense of the family of tornadoes produced by the supercell. This tornado developed about 6 miles southwest of the town of Pilger and moved northeast, directly striking the city. Initially narrow and relatively weak, the tornado significantly intensified as it neared the Elkhorn River and moved into town. The tornado cut a path through town, destroying numerous homes and businesses. The tornado was responsible for 1 fatality in the town of Pilger and several injuries before moving northeast and weakening. During a weakening period, the tornado again intensified, producing additional violent damage 4 miles northeast of Pilger. Finally, the tornado narrowed, weakened, and turned east, wrapping around the developing Wakefield tornado before dissipating. 

 

[Stormlover74]

9 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

I agree. For our area I think we'll top out at about 97 late week. I also think there's a good chance our area will hit 90 on Monday, so we could be looking at a 7 or 8 day heat wave. Mighty impressive. 

Yeah even behind any front it looks hot so could last through next Monday 

Euro has the heat peaking next weekend

[forkyfork]

this is like getting a blizzard every day for 8 days

[Great Snow 1717]

13 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Last night was horrible I hope it doesn't rain for 4 weeks, I was without power for most of the night and so was my entire block.

 

Whoops..sorry man...I disconnected the wrong cord..

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I think portions of New England have a shot at their all-time June warmest temperatures as this starts out in true over the top fashion with the subtropical ridge pushed much further north than usual. All-time max 500mb height records could also be challenged.

 

Yup, any valley location there and Upstate are gonna roast.