June 2024

[JetsPens87]

3 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

really montauk would hit 100's

Dumb gas lighting argument

Where did he say Montauk? There would be big heat if there was a ridge yes...what can't you understand about that?

[Allsnow]

Might need rain soon 

[winterwarlock]

18 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Might need rain soon 

lawns are holding up but i am seeing some of that dryness a bit.....looks like several chances of rain this week especially Thursday so I think we wont have to worry too much. I hate wet patterns so its been pretty good the past couple months where we get some rain but not excessive amounts

[lee59]

59 here this morning. 

[Stormlover74]

5 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

70 / 57 and looking mostly cloudy today but should be dry.  Upper 70s / low 80s.   Clear out tomorrow after an isolated AM shower and warm in the mid to upper 80s.  Overall near normal with trough into the NE the next week - no heat (90s) as it looks now.   Ran/ showers Wed - Thu before clearing out by Friday.  Still chance trough cuts off in the period 6/7 - 6/9.  Warmer by mid month.

 

 

Was sorta surprised to see Upton going mostly sunny for today. 

[SACRUS]

8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Was sorta surprised to see Upton going mostly sunny last night for today. 

 

Some breaks now but plenty of clouds around.

[bluewave]

On 6/1/2024 at 11:14 AM, MANDA said:

Where was this in Dec, Jan and Feb?  Nice looking map.

I'll take it now though, it is a very comfortable pattern heading into Summer.

Yeah, this would have been a great pattern last winter. Very impressive +PNA -NAO blocking for June. We’ll need to see exactly where the upper low closes off in order to know where the surface lows and rainfall chances will be the highest.
 

[GaWx]

46 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, this would have been a great pattern last winter. Very impressive +PNA -NAO blocking for June. We’ll need to see exactly where the upper low closes off in order to know where the surface lows and rainfall chances will be the highest.
 

1. Winter months with both -NAO and +PNA since 2000: 11 of 74 (15%)

12/2020, 2/2013, 1/2011, DJF 2009-10, 12/2005, 1/2004, 12/2002, 12/2001, 12/2000

 

2. Same for summer months: 17 of 72 (24%)

JJA of 2023, 8/2021, 7/2020, 7/2019, 8/2019, 7/2016, 7/2015, 8/2014, 8/2011, 7/2010, 8/2010,  6/2009, 7/2009, 8/2008, 7/2007, 7/2005, 8/2004

So, 60% higher frequency of -NAO/+PNA for summer months vs winter months since 2000

Edit: contrast much higher since 2012 with only 2 of 38 (5%) for winter vs 10 of 36 (28%) for summer

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

1. Winter months with both -NAO and +PNA since 2000: 11 of 74 (15%)

12/2020, 2/2013, 1/2011, DJF 2009-10, 12/2005, 1/2004, 12/2002, 12/2001, 12/2000

 

2. Same for summer months: 17 of 72 (24%)

JJA of 2023, 8/2021, 7/2020, 7/2019, 8/2019, 7/2016, 7/2015, 8/2014, 8/2011, 7/2010, 8/2010,  6/2009, 7/2009, 8/2008, 7/2007, 7/2005, 8/2004

So, 60% higher frequency of -NAO/+PNA for summer months vs winter months since 2000

Edit: contrast much higher since 2012 with only 2 of 38 (5%) for winter vs 10 of 36 (28%) for summer

Yeah, the +PNA -NAO tendency has been increasing during the summer. Winters have featured an increasing 
+NAO pattern. So while this winter was technically +PNA, the undercutting trough near the Western US functioned more like a -PNA. So we have had more of a -PNA 500MB look most winters since the 15-16 super El Niño.

[lee59]

80 pleasant degrees here.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the +PNA -NAO tendency has been increasing during the summer. Winters have featured an increasing 
+NAO pattern. So while this winter was technically +PNA, the undercutting trough near the Western US functioned more like a -PNA. So we have had more of a -PNA 500MB look most winters since the 15-16 super El Niño.
 

 

1. Consistent with this, note how frequent were -NAOs in winter mid-50s through early 70s. The winters since 2011-2 have been the exact opposite!

2. The only -NAO winters (sub -0.25 using the NOAA table’s values, which are slightly different from what your graph shows) since 1979-80 have all been in the general vicinity of solar minimums for the last four cycles. Coincidence? I don’t know but it at least looks like there may be a relationship in this age of rare -NAO winters. If so, the next good shot at one or two maybe near the end of the 2020s. @snowman19knows about this.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

[psv88]

High of 85 at home, glorious on the water. 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

1. Consistent with this, note how frequent were -NAOs in winter mid-50s through early 70s. The winters since 2011-2 have been the exact opposite!

2. The only -NAO winters (sub -0.25 using the NOAA table’s values, which are slightly different from what your graph shows) since 1979-80 have all been in the general vicinity of solar minimums for the last four cycles. Coincidence? I don’t know but it at least looks like there may be a relationship in this age of rare -NAO winters. If so, the next good shot at one or two maybe near the end of the 2020s. @snowman19knows about this.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

It also seems like our winter blocking episodes during the 2020s have shifted the strongest 500 mb anomalies further west  into the AO domain. So we are getting weaker -NAO responses and ridging closer to Iceland. Even when the -AO was near record lows like in December 2022 closer to Greenland. So this has been allowing the further west blocks to link up with Southeast ridge. You can see the big difference between the La Niña Decembers of 2022 and 2010. December 2022 featured a -2.719 AO and -0.15 NAO with lower heights near Iceland. December 2010 had a -2.631 AO along with a much lower -1.85 NAO. My guess these shifts along with more south based -AOs in recent years are related to the global land and SST warming altering the way the teleconnections and 500 mb patterns manifest. The -PNA was even lower in December 2010 at -1.78 than the -0.66 PNA in December 2022.

 

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

High of 85 at home, glorious on the water. 

Yeah, spent 12 hours on the water yesterday with not one keeper fish of any species. What the hell is wrong with our fisheries....all the bass are too big to keep, all the sea bass too small, all the fluke too small, and there are no porgies anywhere but the Sound, which I guess we are going to have to make run to;  long way from Sayreville ramp......but no longer than running all the way to the donut, the Rocks, the Mud buoy, the Farms.....and at least the Sound is sheltered. Never been up through that way, gotta run the East river through Hell gate and on past City Island. Great weather though, except that SW wind kicked our asses offshore yesterday. Came into Raritan Bay, it was gorgeous, bunker splashing all over, threw out some stretch plugs and nada. oh, and NJ will close porgy fishing this summer. Won't matter, there aren't any around.

[psv88]

3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Yeah, spent 12 hours on the water yesterday with not one keeper fish of any species. What the hell is wrong with our fisheries....all the bass are too big to keep, all the sea bass too small, all the fluke too small, and there are no porgies anywhere but the Sound, which I guess we are going to have to make run to;  long way from Sayreville ramp......but no longer than running all the way to the donut, the Rocks, the Mud buoy, the Farms.....and at least the Sound is sheltered. Never been up through that way, gotta run the East river through Hell gate and on past City Island. Great weather though, except that SW wind kicked our asses offshore yesterday. Came into Raritan Bay, it was gorgeous, bunker splashing all over, threw out some stretch plugs and nada. oh, and NJ will close porgy fishing this summer. Won't matter, there aren't any around.

Lots of good fishing in the sound now…right off the eatons neck coast guard station 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 93 (2000)
NYC: 96 (1895)
LGA: 94 (1989)
JFK: 91 (1961)


Lows:

EWR:  48  (1946)
NYC: 48 (1946)
LGA:  48 (1946)
JFK: 51 (2015)

Historical:

 

1889 - A great flood on the Potomac River in Washington D.C. took out a span of Long Bridge, and flooded streets near the river. The flood stage reached was not again equalled until 1936. (David Ludlum)

 

1889: The same storm that caused the historic dam failure in Johnstown, PA, also affected Washington, D.C. The streets and reservations in the center of the city and all the wharves and streets along the riverfront were under water. Pennsylvania Avenue was flooded from 2nd to 10th Streets. The Potomac River crested at the Aqueduct Bridge at 19.5 feet on June 2. Additionally, damage occurred on Rock Creek, with the Woodley Lane Bridge washed away. Considerable damage occurred to machinery plants and material at the Navy Yard.

1917 - The temperature at Tribune, KS dipped to 30 degrees to establish a state record for the month of June. (The Weather Channel)

1949 - A tornado northeast of Alfalfa OK circled an area one mile in radius. (The Weather Channel)

1985 - Lightning struck a house, broke a bedroom window, and jumped to a metal frame bed. A man was killed but his wife was unharmed by the lightning. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Thunderstorms spawned seven tornadoes in West Texas and six tornadoes in Illinois. Thunderstorms in Illinois produced wind gusts to 70 mph at McComb and Mattoon. Thunderstorms in southern Texas produced 5.5 inches of rain south of Seguin, and up to eight inches of rain in Washington County. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Severe thunderstorms in Texas and Oklahoma produced hail more than three inches in diameter near Stilwater OK, and softball size hail in Jones County of north central Texas. Baseball size hail and 70 mph winds caused an estimated 100 million dollars damage around Abilene TX. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather across much of the south central U.S. through most of the day and night. Thunderstorms spawned a dozen tornadoes, and there were 123 reports of large hail and damaging winds. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 78 mph at Russell KS, and baseball size hail was reported at Denver CO, Cuthbert TX, and in Reeves County TX. Afternoon thunderstorms in southern New England produced wind gusts to 120 mph at Fitchburg, MA, causing five million dollars damage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1998: Frostburg, Maryland on June 2, 1998, at 9:45 PM - This was part of a killer outbreak of tornadoes that moved southeast from Pennsylvania. The storm entered Garrett County, Maryland striking the town of Finzel. It then moved up and over Big Savage Mountain in Allegany County and ripped through the northern portion of Frostburg. It reached its peak strength as it crossed the ridge. Winds were estimated between 210 and 250 mph (F4 on the Fujita Tornado Damage Scale). This was the first tornado to "officially" be rated an "F4" in the State of Maryland. The National Weather Service adopted the Fujita Damage Scale in 1973. The total damage path of the Frostburg tornado was over 25 miles long (8 miles in Allegany County) and up to a half-mile wide. Along most of its path, it was producing winds over 125 mph (F2 or stronger). The damage path was continuous as it moved up and down over 2000-foot mountain ridges. The fact that no one was killed in Maryland was attributed to 5 to 10 minutes warning that was well communicated to people in Frostburg over television, radio, scanners, telephones, and sirens. People took quick action to move to their basements. A mother and child rode out the storm as it destroyed their house hiding under a table in the basement. They were shaken but unharmed. A jacket from a Frostburg home was found 25 miles away. A diploma was found near Winchester, Virginia, 60 miles away and a bill was found near Sterling Virginia (about 100 miles away). 

 

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

Yeah, spent 12 hours on the water yesterday with not one keeper fish of any species. What the hell is wrong with our fisheries....all the bass are too big to keep, all the sea bass too small, all the fluke too small, and there are no porgies anywhere but the Sound, which I guess we are going to have to make run to;  long way from Sayreville ramp......but no longer than running all the way to the donut, the Rocks, the Mud buoy, the Farms.....and at least the Sound is sheltered. Never been up through that way, gotta run the East river through Hell gate and on past City Island. Great weather though, except that SW wind kicked our asses offshore yesterday. Came into Raritan Bay, it was gorgeous, bunker splashing all over, threw out some stretch plugs and nada. oh, and NJ will close porgy fishing this summer. Won't matter, there aren't any around.

Any bass? 
 

I always had luck at the donut fishing for fluke. I do agree, keeper fluke are hard to find and even harder now with the new limit. The sticks and lighthouse have been awful for years now 

[donsutherland1]

Temperatures rose into the lower 80s in Ghent, NY making for a good day for viewing some of the sculptures at Art Omi.

 

[donsutherland1]

After perhaps a brief shower, tomorrow will be partly to mostly sunny with temperatures topping out in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Warm spots could again reach the middle 80s. Rain could arrive late Wednesday or Thursday. In the wake of the system, temperatures will continue to reach the upper 70s and lower 80s into the weekend.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around May 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral conditions are imminent.

The SOI was -10.33 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.403 today.

 

[vegan_edible]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Temperatures rose into the lower 80s in Ghent, NY making for a good day for viewing some of the sculptures at Art Omi.

 

love art omi! it's only about 40 mins from my parents house in albany, i usually go once or twice a summer

[SACRUS]

Highs:
 

EWR: 86
PHL: 86
TEB: 84
LGA: 83
ACY:  83
New Brnswck: 82
BLM: 82
ISP: 82
TTN: 81
NYC:  81
JFK: 79

 

[bluewave]

Newark has had at least a T of rain on every weekend since the beginning of March.

 

Newark 

Jun 1-2……….T

May 25-25…..T

May 18-19…..0.04

May 11-12…0.38

May 4-5…..0.31

Apr 27-28…0.11

Apr 20-21…0.05

Apr 13-14…0.04

Apr 6-7…….T

Mar 30-31…0.01

Mar 23-24….3.10

Mar 16-17…..T

Mar 9-10….1.46

Mar 2-3…..1.31

 

THE NEWARK NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JUNE 2 2024...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1931 TO 2024


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 YESTERDAY                                                           
  MAXIMUM         86    112 PM  93    1989  77      9       91       
                                      2000                           
  MINIMUM         62    406 AM  48    1945  59      3       64       
                                      1946                           
  AVERAGE         74                        68      6       78     

PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                    
  YESTERDAY        T             2.96 1946   0.15  -0.15     0.00     
  MONTH TO DATE    T                         0.31  -0.31     0.00     

 

The models are hinting at some shower and thunderstorm potential next weekend with the upper low closing off over the Great Lakes. 
 

 

 

[MANDA]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Newark has had at least a T of rain on every weekend since the beginning of March.

 

 

Newark 

Jun 1-2……….T

May 25-25…..T

May 18-19…..0.04

May 11-12…0.38

May 4-5…..0.31

Apr 27-28…0.11

Apr 20-21…0.05

Apr 13-14…0.04

Apr 6-7…….T

Mar 30-31…0.01

Mar 23-24….3.10

Mar 16-17…..T

Mar 9-10….1.46

Mar 2-3…..1.31

 

THE NEWARK NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JUNE 2 2024...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1931 TO 2024


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 YESTERDAY                                                           
  MAXIMUM         86    112 PM  93    1989  77      9       91       
                                      2000                           
  MINIMUM         62    406 AM  48    1945  59      3       64       
                                      1946                           
  AVERAGE         74                        68      6       78     

PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                    
  YESTERDAY        T             2.96 1946   0.15  -0.15     0.00     
  MONTH TO DATE    T                         0.31  -0.31     0.00     

 

The models are hinting at some shower and thunderstorm potential next weekend with the upper low closing off over the Great Lakes. 
 

 

 

Not going to see any 90+ with that pattern ! 

[forkyfork]

if ewr stays above 71 by midnight today will be a record high min

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Not going to see any 90+ with that pattern ! 

Today may be the warmest day of the whole week with parts of NJ away from the sea breeze trying to make it to 90°.

[psv88]

Low of 66, warm. 
 

I hope the wet pattern doesn’t develop. No good!

[SI Mailman]

65 and cloudy here in London right at the peak of the day, some of you guys would be happy with this weather, although it was 73 and sunny yesterday.

[SACRUS]

 

81 and mostly sunny.   Warmest day of the next 9 likely mid - upper 80s.  Probably turn partly cloudy later this morning.  Still warm tomorrow but low 80s.  Clouds and showers as the trough builds in Wed (6/) / Thu (6/6).   Overall trough but near normal with unsettled period with rain chances although no deluge or hvy rain signal on guidance.   Ridge balloons in the west- Rockies and trough cuts off later this week and the coming weekend which will determine if its a washout or clears.  No heat signal into the east - riding normal wave from the trough.  Warmer mid- post mid month.

 

 

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Today may be the warmest day of the whole week with parts of NJ away from the sea breeze trying to make it to 90°.

Looks warmest into the beginning / middle of next week 6/9-10.  We'll see where the trough cuts off this coming weekend.

[SACRUS]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Newark has had at least a T of rain on every weekend since the beginning of March.

 

 

Newark 

Jun 1-2……….T

May 25-25…..T

May 18-19…..0.04

May 11-12…0.38

May 4-5…..0.31

Apr 27-28…0.11

Apr 20-21…0.05

Apr 13-14…0.04

Apr 6-7…….T

Mar 30-31…0.01

Mar 23-24….3.10

Mar 16-17…..T

Mar 9-10….1.46

Mar 2-3…..1.31

 

THE NEWARK NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JUNE 2 2024...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1931 TO 2024


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 YESTERDAY                                                           
  MAXIMUM         86    112 PM  93    1989  77      9       91       
                                      2000                           
  MINIMUM         62    406 AM  48    1945  59      3       64       
                                      1946                           
  AVERAGE         74                        68      6       78     

PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                    
  YESTERDAY        T             2.96 1946   0.15  -0.15     0.00     
  MONTH TO DATE    T                         0.31  -0.31     0.00     

 

The models are hinting at some shower and thunderstorm potential next weekend with the upper low closing off over the Great Lakes. 

 

Despite that two (traces) overall (90%)  nice weekend Memorial Day 5-24 - 5/26 / and this past 6/1 - 6/2.