June 2024

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow and Friday will be very warm days with temperatures rising into the middle and upper 80s. Some hot spots could reach or exceed 90°. A thundershower is possible on Friday as a cold front crosses the region. A pleasnt weekend will follow.

Afterward, the potential exists for a long stretch of above to much above normal temperatures. Parts of the region could experience their first heatwave of the summer.

Following New York City's 4th warmest spring and Philadelphia's 6th warmest spring, there is a distinct possibility that June 2024 will rank among the 10 warmest Junes on record in both cities. Records go back to 1869 in New York City and 1874 in Philadelphia.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around June 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall.

The SOI was -6.40 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.953 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 86% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.2° (3.2° above normal).

 

[forkyfork]

12 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

EPS 5-day 850 temp anomalies has bulk of extreme heat NW of us into Ontario Canada FWIW.  Eventually drops S into Ohio valley area later

the same 850 temp is going to have a higher anomaly to our north

[JustinRP37]

19 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

EPS 5-day 850 temp anomalies has bulk of extreme heat NW of us into Ontario Canada FWIW.  Eventually drops S into Ohio valley area later

I was referring to the 5-11 90+ degree days. Might have the 5 by the end of next week. 

[nycwinter]

23 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

I was referring to the 5-11 90+ degree days. Might have the 5 by the end of next week. 

you always post depressing news...

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said:

This isn’t going to age very well looking at the long term. 

It made zero sense to me.

[JustinRP37]

25 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

you always post depressing news...

Not always! I was very optimistic this past winter! Older I get the more I appreciated the cold cold weather with lots of snow. I do like the hot weather too but only when I am near water. This past week has been incredible with warm days and cool to cold nights. 
 

On the flip side I do usually talk about tick-borne and mosquito-borne diseases a lot this time of year. 

[gravitylover]

I can appreciate beautiful days that are that way because the clouds don't break so it stays at about 80°. Now it's crystal clear and 70° with a nice breeze. I don't need the incoming warmth, I really don't. 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

3 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

I was referring to the 5-11 90+ degree days. Might have the 5 by the end of next week. 

And might have two or three. 

WX/PT

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Just now, Wxoutlooksblog said:

And might have two or three. 

WX/PT

And it depends on your location. My posts usually reference Central Park with statistics. There's lots of uncertainty where the core of the heat next week is going to end up. How any backdoor cold fronts may affect it. Thunderstorm activity, etc. Yes we could have 4-6 90+ days at the Park if the European model maps of yesterday and today verify. 

WX/PT

[Wxoutlooksblog]

11 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

And it depends on your location. My posts usually reference Central Park with statistics. There's lots of uncertainty where the core of the heat next week is going to end up. How any backdoor cold fronts may affect it. Thunderstorm activity, etc. Yes we could have 4-6 90+ days at the Park if the European model maps of yesterday and today verify. 

WX/PT

To further illustrate the point I just made, this is probably not 90+ degree heat for most of the NYC Metro Region. A b-door front came through on the 20th and winds here are light but right off of the ocean from the southeast. A backdoor front such as this could eliminate 2 or 3 of the potential very hot days at the end of next week holding temperatures in the mid-upper 80s or lower. Then if you do follow the 18Z run of the GFS which I personally wouldn't take too seriously at this point, when the winds finally do back around they are from the south-southwest ushering in 75 degree dew points and not 95 degree heat. There are worlds of differences from one model to another and run to run on the same model right now. So while I tend to believe it's going to come back to at least 3 days of heat, I'd be careful about betting on 5 at this moment.

WX/PT

[JustinRP37]

If we use Central Park for 90 degrees then yeah. That site hasn’t represented Manhattan climate in awhile. It is literally in dense canopy. All I’m saying is calling for 5-11 days of 90+ in early June, when 90 degree days happen well into September is pretty bold call. Especially with guidance looking the way it looks right now. Most of the long range guidance continues to show plenty of chances at 90 just this month. 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 97 (2017)
NYC: 93 (2017)
LGA: 96  (2017)
JFK: 92 (2017)

 

 

Lows: 

EWR:  47 (1951)
NYC: 48 (1979)
LGA: 49 (1979)
JFK: 49 (1980)

Historical:

 

1881 - Severe thunderstorms spawned more than half a dozen tornadoes in the Lower Missouri Valley. Five of the tornadoes touched down near Saint Joseph MO. In south central Kansas a tornado nearly wiped out the town of Floral. Hail and high winds struck Iowa and southern Minnesota. In Minnesota, Blue Earth City reported five inches of rain in one hour. (David Ludlum)

1915: An estimated F4 tornado moved northeast from northwest of Waterville, Iowa crossing the Mississippi River two miles south of Ferryville, Wisconsin. A man and his daughter were killed in one of three homes that were obliterated southwest of "Heytman," a small railroad station on the Mississippi River. 60 buildings and eight homes were destroyed in Wisconsin. This tornado caused approximately $200,000 in damage. In addition to this tornado, another estimated F4 tornado moved northeast across Fayette and Clayton Counties in northeast Iowa. One farm was devastated, the house and barn leveled. Heavy machinery was thrown 300 yards. Clothing was carried two miles.

1947 - A heavy wet snow blanketed much of southern and central Wyoming, and gave many places their heaviest and latest snow of record. Totals included 18.4 inches at Lander, 8.7 inches at Cheyenne, and 4.5 inches at Casper. (11th-12th) (The Weather Channel)

1948: The Columbia River Basin flood peaked on this date in the Northwest. The flood produced the highest water level in the basin since the flood there in 1894. The damage estimate for the 1948 flood was $101 million, and 75 lives were lost. 

1969 - Record late season snows covered parts of Montana. Five inches was reported at Great Falls and east of Broadus. Billings, MT, tied their June record with lows of 32 degrees on the 12th and the 13th. (The Weather Channel)

1983 - The state of Utah was beseiged by floods and mudslides. Streets in downtown Salt Lake City were sandbagged and turned into rivers of relief. The town of Thistle was completely inundated as a mudslide made a natural dam. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Thunderstorms in Nebraska produced softball size hail around Fremont and Ames, and 3.5 inches of rain in less than one hour. Four and a half inches in less than an hour caused flooding around Ithica, NE. A tornado destroyed a mobile home near Broken Bow, NE, injuring both occupants. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Fifteen cities in the southeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Asheville with a reading of 40 degrees. Drought conditions continued to intensify across the eastern half of the nation. Rainfall at Nashville, TN, was running 12.5 inches below normal. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from Tennessee Valley to the Central Appalachians in the afternoon and evening, and produced severe weather in Oklahoma and Texas during the evening and night. Thunderstorms spawned ten tornadoes, and there were 164 reports of large hail and damaging winds. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 100 mph at Amarillo, TX, and wind gusts to 110 mph at Denton TX. Hail three inches in diameter was reported at Tucumcari NM. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2005 - A tornado in Hammond, Wisconsin damaged 22 homes and produced $3.6 million in damage (Associated Press).

[SACRUS]

Highs


ACY: 84
EWR: 81
PHL: 80
New Brnswck: 79
TTN: 78
LGA: 78
TEB: 78
ISP: 76
NYC: 76
JFK: 75
BLM: 74
 

[psv88]

Florida looks nice. Hope everyone who moved down there from New York stays dry!

[forkyfork]

1 hour ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

To further illustrate the point I just made, this is probably not 90+ degree heat for most of the NYC Metro Region. A b-door front came through on the 20th and winds here are light but right off of the ocean from the southeast. A backdoor front such as this could eliminate 2 or 3 of the potential very hot days at the end of next week holding temperatures in the mid-upper 80s or lower. Then if you do follow the 18Z run of the GFS which I personally wouldn't take too seriously at this point, when the winds finally do back around they are from the south-southwest ushering in 75 degree dew points and not 95 degree heat. There are worlds of differences from one model to another and run to run on the same model right now. So while I tend to believe it's going to come back to at least 3 days of heat, I'd be careful about betting on 5 at this moment.

WX/PT

its ensemble disagrees

[bluewave]

Still plenty of spread with the models for the heatwave next week. It s the Euro vs the cooler GFS and CMC. The Euro has our first 600dm ridge for the month of June. The location of the maximum heights and specific wind direction varies across all the models also. So the details will have to wait until the models can come into better agreement. 

 

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Still plenty of spread with the models for the heatwave next week. It s the Euro vs the cooler GFS and CMC. The Euro has our first 600dm ridge for the month of June. The location of the maximum heights and specific wind direction varies across all the models also. So the details will have to wait until the models can come into better agreement. 

 

Always the chance too that the ridge is too steep/centered west of us which would cause our winds to be southerly or even bring a back door front through. We’d want a flatter ridge for big heat like the Euro. If we start seeing more height falls to our NE again it’s a big red flag IMO. 

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Always the chance too that the ridge is too steep/centered west of us which would cause our winds to be southerly or even bring a back door front through. We’d want a flatter ridge for big heat like the Euro. If we start seeing more height falls to our NE again it’s a big red flag IMO. 

The surface ridge axis on the CMC is further north. So we get SSE winds off the ocean. The Euro is further south allowing more westerly flow. Once within 120 hrs the models should start to agree on one solution or the other. But it’s been tough in recent years to get a strong westerly flow with our heatwaves. So the Euro would be a departure from recent experience. That’s why I would like to see some agreement in future runs.

 

 

[SnoSki14]

That's some serious heat on the Euro. Looks like 100s and pretty widespread

Gfs isn't far behind though  

[lee59]

Meanwhile, 57 degrees here this morning. Nice. Already approaching 70.

[kat5hurricane]

13 hours ago, gravitylover said:

I can appreciate beautiful days that are that way because the clouds don't break so it stays at about 80°. Now it's crystal clear and 70° with a nice breeze. I don't need the incoming warmth, I really don't. 

I can't for the life of me understand why anybody would prefer high heat and humidity. The weather we've had the last week or so has been perfect.

I don't mind some hotter days if I'm going to the beach or be on the water but otherwise, it's just uncomfortable.

[JustinRP37]

18 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

I can't for the life of me understand why anybody would prefer high heat and humidity. The weather we've had the last week or so has been perfect.

I don't mind some hotter days if I'm going to the beach or be on the water but otherwise, it's just uncomfortable.

They might be shareholders in ConEd or Eversouce . I'm with you, the past few weeks have been glorious minus the trees having sex in public. 

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

That's some serious heat on the Euro. Looks like 100s and pretty widespread

Gfs isn't far behind though  

Fire 

[JetsPens87]

1 hour ago, kat5hurricane said:

I can't for the life of me understand why anybody would prefer high heat and humidity. The weather we've had the last week or so has been perfect.

I don't mind some hotter days if I'm going to the beach or be on the water but otherwise, it's just uncomfortable.

I just like it cause it upsets @MJO812 and @nycwinter and some people seem to get so bothered that people like hot weather.

Those same 2 I just tagged always try to gloat about cold and rain (had to listen to them all March and April) so now it's payback time.

I also like it for the beach and pool. Unless you have a heated pool it sucks getting in when it's only 75 to 80. When it's 90...its the best.

[495weatherguy]

20 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

I just like it cause it upsets @MJO812 and @nycwinter and some people seem to get so bothered that people like hot weather.

Those same 2 I just tagged always try to gloat about cold and rain (had to listen to them all March and April) so now it's payback time.

I also like it for the beach and pool. Unless you have a heated pool it sucks getting in when it's only 75 to 80. When it's 90...its the best.

Very well said!

Bring on Summer!

[Stormlover74]

Timing looks to be tomorrow afternoon for storms west to east. Out of here by early evening on the nam. Hrrr is very different with heaviest at night

[weathermedic]

80/64 here

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Timing looks to be tomorrow afternoon for storms west to east. Out of here by early evening on the nam. Hrrr is very different with heaviest at night

I hope we get hit hard tomorrow. It has been about a week since we've had rain, and if the Euro is right it's gonna be dry through the big heat next week with the next chance not coming until next weekend. We really need this rain. 

[SACRUS]

 

85/ 55 and on way to near 90 or 90 in the hot spots.  Tomorrow clouds and showers could get in the way of appetizer 90s in the warmer spits.   Dry / warm weekend ahead of the oncoming heat next week.  Overalll hot the next week to 10 days.  Recent dryness will enhance maximums.

 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/eus/02/GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

 

[jm1220]

34 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I hope we get hit hard tomorrow. It has been about a week since we've had rain, and if the Euro is right it's gonna be dry through the big heat next week with the next chance not coming until next weekend. We really need this rain. 

Lawns will need it for sure given what’s coming. Hope we get it.